Winter Storm Quinlan Update Two

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1000 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

MEZ002-112300-

/O.UPG.KCAR.WS.A.0008.220312T1000Z-220313T0800Z/

/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.W.0008.220312T1000Z-220313T1100Z/

Northeast Aroostook-

Including the cities of Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,

Mars Hill, and Ashland

1000 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST SATURDAY TO 7 AM

EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. The snow may mix with or change to

  all rain Saturday morning, especially south of Caribou.

  Precipitation will change back to all snow late Saturday

  afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 13 inches expected.

  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northeast Aroostook County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM EST Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be extremely dangerous.

  Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility

  and cause localized hazardous travel. Power outages are

  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must

travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle

in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1000 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

MEZ005-006-112300-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WW.Y.0020.220312T1000Z-220313T1100Z/

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Including the cities of Millinocket, East Millinocket, Patten,

Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, and Smyrna Mills

1000 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST SATURDAY TO

7 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 9 inches

  expected. Highest amounts north of the Houlton to Patten line. Winds

  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Penobscot and Southeast Aroostook Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM EST Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Power

  outages are possible. Areas of blowing snow could

  significantly reduce visibility and cause localized hazardous

  travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

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000

FXUS61 KGYX 111051

AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

551 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will continue to shift offshore this morning as a

weak frontal boundary stalls to our south before slowly lifting

north this afternoon. Low pressure develops over the Carolinas

tonight and strengthens as it moves into the Gulf of Maine on

Saturday and then into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night.

This area of low pressure will bring widespread rain and snow to

the region, along with gusty winds. A return to quieter weather

is then expected for the start and middle of next week, except

for a few showers as a weak front drops through the region late

Monday or Tuesday....

&&

.....SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

00Z operational models and ensemble solutions continue to show

a rapidly evolving system on Saturday. An upper level trough

will continue to shift east, triggering cyclogenesis off the Mid

Atlantic Seaboard during the morning hours. This low will then

intensify further as it races through the Gulf of Maine during

the afternoon hours. Guidance has trended slightly warmer ahead

of the system as an upper level trough remains to its west. The

ptpye issues does show up well in the GYX probability plots for

at least a portion of the morning hours. Shortly thereafter

however, model soundings suggest cold air will pour in from the

north while upper level dynamics increase over the region. This

will allow any rain and snow mixture across the north to change

to snow.

There is still sufficient uncertainty in the forecast to continue

the Winter Storm Watches for northern and western areas. The most

likely areas to receive heavy snowfall will be along the Canadian

Border and also in the higher terrain of the White Mountains.

Wet snow could bring down branches and lead to power outages.

The snow tapers off Saturday evening from southwest to northeast

with downsloping initially occurring over southern New Hampshire and

southwest Maine. Some snow shower activity will likely continue in

the upslope facing areas of the mountains.

As the storm continues to intensify, winds will increase on the

backside of the system. Gusts will continue to increase as the

gradient increases through a deeper and deeper layer with time.

Winds likely to gust over 40 mph by Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Other than departing low pressure on Sunday, the long range

forecast looks fairly quiet and warm through most of next week.

CPC forecasts concur with long range ensemble anomalies that

after the deep trough from this weekend`s system lifts north and

away from New England, zonal flow takes over across much of

NOAM which allows broad, warm high pressure to develop over much

of the southern and eastern CONUS... bringing above normal

temperatures and mostly dry conditions to our area.

Starting Sunday... low pressure will still be bombing out over

the Canadian Maritimes, but quickly moving away. The steep

pressure gradient between it and increasing high pressure over

the South will continue the gusty to strong northwesterly wind,

but it should diminish by Sunday night with high pressure

eventually winning out. The thermal trough will be dipping

through New England on Sunday as well with t850 ranging from

around minus 20 to minus 15, give or take with some uncertainty

yet at this stage of the forecast. This will yield a much cooler

Sunday with highs back down below average, ranging from around

20 toward the north to the mid-30s for southern zones.

The trend through the early part of next week will be pressure

rises and rebounding temperatures with highs trending into the

40/50s (and in some solutions near 60 across the south) by

Tuesday. Weak waves will be moving through otherwise zonal flow

aloft in the meantime, with one pushing a cold front across the

region around the late Monday/early Tuesday time frame.

Indications now are that this will be a light precipitation

event mostly over the northern zones, with light rain and a

chance for light snow accumulation. Given it`s a shortwave the

timing could change. High pressure returns and the warm trend

resumes for the midweek period with low-60s possible by late

week.

&&....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

306 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...LATE SEASON SNOW STORM...

.Snow will arrive late tonight across western New Hampshire and the

mountains of Maine, possibly becoming heavy on Saturday before

ending Saturday evening. The snow will be wet and may mix with rain

at times in the lower elevations.

Windy conditions will follow late Saturday night and Sunday. Winds

will shift to the northwest and gust over 35 mph.

MEZ007>009-012-013-NHZ001>005-007-112100-

/O.CON.KGYX.WS.A.0007.220312T1000Z-220313T0400Z/

Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern

Oxford-Southern Franklin-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern

Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Sullivan-

Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, Middle

Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley,

Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond,

Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Bethel,

Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway,

Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple,

Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin,

Dummer, Milan, York Pond, Lancaster, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton,

Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley, Woodstock, Jackson, North

Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford Notch, Lebanon, Lyme,

Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, Claremont,

Cornish, Unity, Croydon, Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport, and

Charlestown

306 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches

  or more possible. Winds could gust as high over 35 mph as the

  storm exits the region Sunday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of west central and western Maine. Portions of

  central and northern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...The potential exists for snowbands that will bring

  periods of locally heavy snowfall, which will lead to rapid snow

  accumulations and extremely dangerous travel conditions. Plan on

  slippery road conditions due to snow covered roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds and the weight of snow on tree

  limbs may bring down power lines and cause power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

MEC