Winter/Spring Potential Flood Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 03/31/2022

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

416 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2022

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND 

DOWNEAST MAINE...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 

2022, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE. 

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE 

TWO-WEEK PERIOD OF MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 14TH, 2022. 

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS ABOVE 

NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY THE ST. JOHN & AROOSTOOK 

RIVER BASINS. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE &

BELOW NORMAL IN DOWNEAST AREAS. 

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOVE 

NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION. BANGOR HAS SEEN AN AVERAGE 

TEMPERATURE OF 32.8 DEGREES WHICH IS 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. 

CARIBOU AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 25.2 DEGREES

WHICH IS ONLY 0.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY WHERE 

FRENCHVILLE HAS BEEN RUNNING 0.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH 

WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 23.5 DEGREES. LIQUID PRECIPITATION 

ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE. 

FRENCHVILLE HAS SEEN 1.73 INCHES WHICH IS 0.31 INCHES ABOVE 

NORMAL. CARIBOU HAS SEEN 3.99 INCHES WHICH IS 1.31 INCHES ABOVE 

NORMAL. HOULTON HAS SEEN 2.82 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHICH

IS 0.24 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. MILLINOCKET HAS SEEN 3.20 INCHES OF 

PRECIPITATION WHICH IS 0.33 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE GREATER 

BANGOR AREA TO THE DOWNEAST COAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN 

NORMAL WITH ONLY 2.97 INCHES IN BANGOR WHICH IS 0.14 INCHES BELOW 

NORMAL. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL THIS MONTH DOWNEAST AREAS HAVE SEEN 

WELL BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL WHILE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE SEEN ABOVE 

AVERAGE SNOW. MILLINOCKET HAS SEEN 8.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN MARCH 

WHILE FORT KENT HAS SEEN 20.5 INCHES THIS MONTH. BANGOR HAS SEEN 

ONLY 5.0 INCHES OF SNOW IN MARCH WHICH IS 9.9 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

CARIBOU ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SEEN 26.2 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS 

5.3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. 

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAS SHIFTED TO SHARPLY 

NEGATIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK WHICH HAS ALLOWED AN UNSEASONABLY COLD

AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED 

STATES. WITH A NEGATIVE NAO, UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING IN THE VICINITY 

OF GREENLAND OFTEN FORCES THE COLD AIR IN EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD

INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY APRIL,

MEDIUM RANGE CLIMATE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NAO INDEX WILL RETURN 

CLOSER TO NEUTRAL AS THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING NEAR GREENLAND 

LIKELY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SAME TIME THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) PATTERN, WHICH 

HAS BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO NEUTRAL, IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SHIFT TO 

NEGATIVE AS WE WORK TOWARDS MID-APRIL. WITH A NEGATIVE PNA UPPER 

LEVEL RIDGING IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES 

WITH LARGELY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A STORM TRACK NEAR OR WEST OF NEW 

ENGLAND. IF IN FACT WE DO SEE A WEAKENING OF THE NEGATIVE NAO 

COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE PNA, TEMPERATURES COULD BECOME

WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO MID-APRIL AFTER A RATHER 

CHILLY START TO THE MONTH.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S 8 

TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 6 TO 12 APRIL 2022 SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THE 

ABOVE ASSESSMENT AS IT CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIKELY BE ABOVE 

NORMAL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNALS OVER DOWNEAST

AREAS IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION. PRECIPITATION FOR THE SAME 

TIME PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ALL OF 

MAINE. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE ST. JOHN RIVER BASIN VARIES BETWEEN 25 TO 

40 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME ISOLATED DEEPER SNOW ACROSS THE 

HEADWATERS IN THE NORTH WOODS. THIS REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL SNOW 

DEPTH WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT READINGS 8 TO 12 INCHES. THE SNOW

WATER EQUIVALENT IN MUCH OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER BASIN IS 

SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO THE PAST 10 YEARS OF DATA. 

THIS SNOWPACK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MELT WITH MOSTLY JUST SUBLIMATION 

OCCURRING GIVEN THE SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-30F RANGE 

DESPITE THE SEVERAL ABOVE FREEZING DAYS. IN THE AROOSTOOK RIVER 

BASIN SNOWPACK RANGES BETWEEN 15 TO 30 INCHES WITH THE CARIBOU NWS

OFFICE SITTING AT 17 INCH SNOW DEPTH. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS 

RUNNING NEAR NORMAL BETWEEN 5 AND 8 INCHES. ACROSS MUCH OF THE 

NORTHERN HIGHLANDS INCLUDING MOOSEHEAD REGION THE SNOWPACK IS DOWN

TO 5 TO 15 INCHES WITH MILLINOCKET REPORTING ONLY 1 INCH SNOW 

DEPTH. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THESE AREAS IS DOWN TO BETWEEN

3 AND 6 INCHES OF LIQUID WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 

THE SNOWPACK HAS MELTED COMPLETELY IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 

JUST A TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH 

VERY LITTLE WATER EQUIVALENT. 

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA

BUT 1 MONTH ANOMALY CHANGES SHOWS NORTHERN AREAS GETTING DRIER. 

THIS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND THE FROZEN GROUND. 

THE FROST CONTINUES TO THAW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AREAS NOW DOWN 

TO 7-10 INCH FROST DEPTH WITH SOME SURFACE THAWING OCCURRING. THE 

GROUND HAS THAWED IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND 

DOWNEAST COAST WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR ABSORPTION. A LOOK AT 

GROUNDWATER LEVELS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, SHOWED WELL ABOVE NORMAL

LEVELS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY, NORTHERN HANCOCK BACK INTO 

THE BANGOR REGION. IN FACT THE GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELL AT 

CALAIS REPORTED RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH WATER LEVELS AS OF MARCH 

29TH WITH THE RECORDS EXTENDING BACK 38 YEARS. WE ALSO HAVE ABOVE 

NORMAL READINGS IN THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS INTO THE NORTH WOODS. 

ELSEWHERE, READINGS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NORTH WOODS CONTINUES TO SEE D0-D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS. D1 & 

D2 EXISTS IN A VERY TINY LOCATION OF NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY NEAR

THE QUEBEC BORDER. D0 CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN 

AROOSTOOK, WESTERN PISCATAQUIS AND THE REST OF SOMERSET COUNTIES. 

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DOWNEAST WITH NORMAL 

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN MAINE. 

CURRENTLY, 95% OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER IS COVERED IN ICE FROM THE 

HEADWATERS IN THE NORTH WOODS TO DICKEY WHERE A LARGE ICE JAM FROM

DECEMBER REMAINS FROZEN IN PLACE. THIS ICE JAM POTENTIALLY 

EXTENDS INTO ST. FRANCIS AND ENDS BEFORE FORT KENT WHICH IS 

APPROXIMATELY 15 MILES LONG. ICE IS ROTTING IN SEVERAL AREAS FROM 

THE HEADWATERS TO ST. FRANCIS. MAINE FOREST SERVICE REPORTED A FEW

DAYS AGO THE ICE AT THE ST. JUSTE ROAD CROSSING WAS SIGNIFICANTLY

ROTTING WITH MELTING SNOW CREATING AN AREA OF STANDING WATER ON 

THE ICE. RECENT MEASUREMENTS OF THE SNOWPACK ON THE ICE IN THE 

ALLAGASH WAS 8 TO 14 INCHES WHICH HAS GREATLY REDUCED IN THE LAST 

TWO WEEKS. THERE IS SOME ICE ROT THAT RESULTED IN SMALL OPENINGS 

IN ALLAGASH, ST. FRANCIS AND MORE SO INTO FORT KENT ESPECIALLY 

WHERE THE FISH RIVER DROPS INTO THE ST. JOHN. IN PERSON 

OBSERVATIONS AND SENTINEL/LANDSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE

ST. JOHN IS A MIX OF SMALL OPEN AREAS AND STILL THICK ICE FROM 

FORT KENT TO MADAWASKA TO HAMLIN. THESE ARE OPENINGS AROUND THE 

CONFLUENCE WITH THE FISH RIVER, MADAWASKA RIVER AND OTHER SMALL 

STREAMS. THERE ARE ALSO OPENINGS AROUND THE CONSTRUCTION LOCATION 

OF THE NEW INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE IN MADAWASKA. OVERALL, ICE 

THICKNESS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER VARIES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH 

ISOLATED THICKER AMOUNTS AROUND THE FROZEN ICE JAMS. INDICATIONS 

SUGGEST THE THICKER LAYERED “BLUE ICE” WHICH TYPICALLY 

REQUIRES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORCE TO BREAK UP REMAINS SOLID 

IN MANY AREAS.

THE ALLAGASH RIVER REMAINS NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN BASED ON 

LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO LARGE OPENINGS. 

SNOWMOBILE TRAFFIC CONTINUES ON THE ICE IN SEVERAL AREAS ALONG 

WITH WILDLIFE TRACKS VISIBLE. SIMILAR TO THE ST. JOHN THE 

THICKNESS IS ESTIMATED AT 1 TO 2 FEET. THE RIVER DOES FEATURE 

ROTTING SNOWPACK AND SURFACE ICE IN SEVERAL AREAS BACK AT THE 

HEADWATERS. OVERALL, SNOWPACK REMAINS 6-10 INCHES DEEP ON MUCH OF 

THE ICE EXCEPT WHERE ROTTING IS MORE PREVALENT. THE FISH RIVER IS 

MOSTLY OPENING UP NOW WITH A DECENT FLOW OF WATER COMING OUT OF 

THE LAKE CHAIN WHICH IS VERY NOTICEABLE IN FORT KENT.

THE AROOSTOOK RIVER REMAINS NEARLY 95% COVERED FROM THE 

HEADWATERS TO THE TOWN OF MASARDIS WITH THE CONFLUENCE OF THE 

SCOPAN STREAM. THE ICE THICKNESS IS MAINLY 1-2 FOOT THICK SMOOTH 

ICE UNDER A DEEP SNOWPACK. AT THE CONFLUENCE OF SCOPAN STREAM TO 

ASHLAND WE HAVE A FEW OPENINGS IN THE ICE LIKELY DUE TO A 

COMBINATION OF THE SCOPAN HYDRO DAM RELEASING WATER AND THE THIN 

ICE MELTING. THERE REMAINS AN ICE JAM FROZEN UNDER THE 5-10 INCH 

SNOWPACK FROM WADE/WASHBURN TO CROUSEVILLE BEFORE IT RETURNS TO 

MAINLY SMOOTH SHEET ICE IN PRESQUE ISLE. THERE IS MAINLY EDGE 

FRACTURING ONGOING IN WASHBURN THANKS TO DISCHARGE FROM GARDNER 

CREEK & RUNOFF FROM THE BANKS IN WASHBURN. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA 

OF OPEN WATER NOW IN THE CENTER OF THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE 

ROUTE 1 BRIDGE IN PRESQUE ISLE. ICE REMAINS MAINLY THICK SHEET ICE

BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND THE CARIBOU DAM BUT SIMILAR TO UPSTREAM 

THERE IS FRACTURING AND OPENINGS DEVELOPING. BELOW THE CARIBOU DAM

TO THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER, IT IS MAINLY SMOOTH SHEET ICE INTO 

FORT FAIRFIELD. THERE ARE PLENTY OF SPOTS THAT ARE SHOWING ICE ROT

AND SLOW DECAY ESPECIALLY IN CARIBOU CLOSER TO THE DAM. THERE IS

ALSO OPENINGS BEFORE THE FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE DUE TO THE RUNOFF

FROM SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS. AT THE FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE THE

WATER LEVEL AND ICE REMAINS WELL BELOW FLOOD LEVEL. THE ICE BEYOND

THE BRIDGE TO THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IS FROZEN SOLID WITH NO

APPARENT CRACKS OR BREAKS. ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO A 

MOSTLY THICK LAYER OF “BLUE ICE” WHICH IS MUCH THICKER AND 

STRONGER ICE THAT REQUIRES A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCE TO BREAK UP. 

HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DECREASING SNOWPACK ON THE ICE THE SOLAR 

RADIATION OF A STRONG LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE IS 

ALLOWING FOR ICE ROT TO INCREASE. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY, SPOTTER REPORTS AND REPORTS FROM EMERGENCY 

MANAGERS CONFIRM THE MATTAWAMKEAG HAS FLUSHED ALL THE ICE SINCE 

THE LAST REPORT. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER HAS DONE THE SAME EXCEPT 

FOR SOME MINOR AREAS OF THIN ICE IN BENDS OF THE RIVER. THE 

PISCATAQUIS RIVER LIKELY STILL HAS SOME SMALL ICE COVERED AREAS AT

THE HEADWATERS BUT IT MOSTLY FLUSHED AT THIS TIME. THE PENOBSCOT 

RIVER CONTINUES TO FLUSH ITS REMAINING ICE AT THE HEADWATERS WHICH

SHOULD BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO GIVEN THE 

FORECAST. ICE IS COMPLETELY FLUSHED FROM THE KENDUSKEAG STREAM 

FROM ITS HEADWATERS TO THE PENOBSCOT RIVER. LASTLY, THE ST. CROIX 

RIVER HAS OPENED UP EXCEPT FOR ICE THAT REMAINS ON THE LAKES. 

...IN CONCLUSION...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS ABOVE NORMAL 

ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE MAINLY IN THE ST. JOHN & AROOSTOOK RIVER 

BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK AND ABOVE NORMAL SNOW

WATER EQUIVALENTS WITH PREDICTED WARMING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL 

LIKELY CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS IN 

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS IS BELOW NORMAL AND LIKELY OVER GIVEN 

THE FREE AND CLEAR RIVERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING 

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINS AT NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL 

GIVEN THE CURRENT RIVER FLOWS. 

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, 

APRIL 14TH UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AN UPDATE. 

$$

SINKO