Halloween Horror - Historic Category One Hurricane Melissa Moves Through The Bahamas

676 

WTNT33 KNHC 292358

TCPAT3

 

BULLETIN

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 34A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

800 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

 

...MELISSA PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A

DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IN THE BAHAMAS...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.5N 74.8W

ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

* Bermuda

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Turks and Caicos Islands

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should

remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be underway and be

completed before anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was

located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 

near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 74.8 West.  Melissa is

moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  An 

accelerating northeastward motion is expected during the next few 

days.  On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to 

continue to move across the southeastern or central Bahamas this 

evening, and is forecast to pass near or to the west of Bermuda 

late Thursday and Thursday night.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast tonight into tomorrow with 

weakening beginning thereafter. 

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles

(295 km).  A private weather station at Pitts Town on Crooked Island 

recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind 

gust of 85 mph (137 km/h).

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches) 

based on dropsonde data.

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in

the southeastern and central Bahamas and should continue through

tonight. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the Turks and

Caicos Islands and should continue through tonight.

 

Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and

Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on

Thursday.

 

RAINFALL: Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to

10 inches are expected through Thursday morning, which will result

in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals

of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect

Bermuda on Thursday or Thursday night.

 

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are

through this evening, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches

possible.

 

For eastern Cuba, the rainfall has subsided. However, additional

scattered showers are expected through this evening, with additional

rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. With storm total rainfall of 10

to 20 inches, possibly up to 25 inches over mountainous terrain, the

ongoing life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding

and landslides will likely persist into the evening.

 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total

Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

 

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is

possible in the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and minor coastal

flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions

of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands for the

remainder of the day, will affect the Bahamas and the Turks and

Caicos Islands for the next few days, and will spread toward Bermuda

later this week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

 

$$

Forecaster Blake

000

WTNT43 KNHC 292047

TCDAT3

 

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  34

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Melissa showing some some signs of convective recovery after 

weakening a little more from the land interaction with Cuba. After 

looking quite ragged after emerging off Cuba, convection is 

redeveloping on its upshear flank, and showing some signs of 

wrapping around the center again. Aircraft fixes from the Air Force 

Hurricane Hunter mission also show that the hurricane is beginning 

to accelerate to the northeast. Peak 700 mb flight level winds were 

87 kt both to the east and northeast of the center, and the minimum 

central pressure was unchanged from this morning, at around 974 mb. 

The mission also indicated a much larger eyewall with an eye 

diameter of 40 n mi. Using a standard 0.9 reduction from the 700 mb 

wind yields a maximum sustained wind of 80 kt this advisory, which 

is also in between the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak intensity 

estimates. Aircraft and scatterometer data were used to expand some 

of the wind radii associated with Melissa this afternoon. Another 

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this 

evening. 

The hurricane continues to gradually accelerate this afternoon, with 

the motion currently estimated at 035/14 kt. Not much has changed 

with the track reasoning this afternoon, as Melissa is beginning to 

be captured in the flow between an amplified trough swinging into 

the southeastern United States and a mid-level ridge centered to the 

east of the tropical cyclone. This motion will bring Melissa across 

the southeastern and central Bahamas though the evening. The track 

models continue to remain clustered on the center of Melissa passing 

just northwest of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night, though 

the enlarging wind radii will likely cause hurricane conditions to 

be experienced near or on the island. The track guidance this cycle 

remains in fairly good agreement, and only subtle changes to the 

track forecast were made this cycle, sticking close to a blend of 

the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind 

ensemble mean (GDMI). It is also worth noting that the forecast 

track does also take Melissa close to the southeastern tip of 

Newfoundland, but as an post-tropical extratropical cyclone. 

While Melissa has weakened substantially in the past 24 h due to 

land interaction from the high terrain of Jamaica and Cuba, the 

global and hurricane-regional models continue to suggest it has a 

short-term window to re-intensify some while it remains over 

sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. While vertical 

wind shear is starting to increase over the hurricane, it is in the 

same direction as the current accelerating motion, and the current 

satellite structure suggests that convection is not having any 

issues wrapping around the circulation. In addition, the 

accelerating forward motion might have the net effect of increasing 

the maximum winds speeds on the southeastern flank of Melissa. 

Finally, the hurricane finds itself positioned in the right entrance 

region of a jet streak located over the northeastern United States, 

which may aid in upper-level divergence over the system before the 

shear becomes prohibitively strong. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast 

does show some modest intensification over the next 24 h, and it is 

worth nothing this forecast is a little lower than some of the 

hurricane-regional models (HAFS-B/HWRF/HMON) that suggest it could 

re-intensify into a major hurricane. Once the hurricane approaches 

the north wall of the gulf stream in 48 h, extratropical transition 

will likely be well underway, with most models suggesting it 

completing this process between 48 to 60 h. The NHC intensity 

forecast is a little on the high side of the overall guidance 

envelope.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, 

life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across 

portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through this 

evening. Remain sheltered until local officials deem it safe to 

venture out. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant 

storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands through 

this evening.

   

2. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are expected in 

Bermuda beginning late Thursday and continuing through Thursday 

night.

3. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may 

need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines 

and flooded areas.  Ensure generators are properly ventilated and 

placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to 

avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when 

using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat 

exhaustion.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  29/2100Z 22.9N  74.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  30/0600Z 25.1N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  30/1800Z 29.1N  70.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  31/0600Z 34.4N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  31/1800Z 40.7N  58.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

 60H  01/0600Z 46.6N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  01/1800Z 52.0N  45.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  02/1800Z 56.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  03/1800Z 57.0N  27.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

$$

Forecaster Papin

026

FXUS61 KCAR 292351

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

751 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain north of the area tonight. Low

pressure will approach on Thursday, cross the area Friday, then

continue into Eastern Canada on Saturday. High pressure will

build in from the southwest on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Update...

Adjusted hourly temperatures based on current observations,

otherwise the current forecast still on track.

See updated aviation section below.

previous discussion

A 1024mb surface high remains to our north over the Gaspe

Peninsula and drifting slowly east into the Gulf of St.

Lawrence. Elongated open shortwave energy responsible for high

clouds today will push NE overnight as mid level warm front

lifts NE. Moisture will be advecting northward tonight but skies

will turn mostly clear over western zones and partly to mostly

cloudy over eastern zones. Light and variable winds will go calm

which will allow temperatures to fall back with decoupling like

in western zones. Temperatures falling back into the upper 20s

to low 30s for pretty much the entire CWA with the exception of

the immediate coastline and far eastern Washington County where

mid 30s are expected.

Tomorrow expecting patchy river valley fog to start and a frosty

morning in many locations. Warm front will be lifting NE at the

surface across southern New England. Moisture advecting in aloft

as upper level winds turn due south as the 500mb trof deepens

and tilts negatively over the Mid Atlantic states. Winds will

turn easterly over Maine and increase 5-10mph. Skies will be

mostly cloudy with low to mid level clouds thickening early in

the morning and given the low sun angle and increasing moisture

unlikely to mix out in most spots.

Models remain solid on timing/position of increasing upper

level divergence deepening a surface low over Pennsylvania

tomorrow afternoon as the 500mb trof goes negative. Expecting

much of the day to be dry but during the afternoon POPs will

increase to slight chance and chance from SW to NE by sunset.

Temperatures tomorrow afternoon top out around 50F north with

low to mid 50s from Dover-Foxcroft to Danforth and points south

to the coastline.

Tomorrow night ECMWF, ECMWF-AIFS, GFS and Canadian along with

hi-res guidance in good agreement bringing north PWATs 200-300

percent of normal into Maine. PWATs in the 1-1.5 inch range will

be rather efficient combined with increased dynamics to produce

good beneficial rainfall across the area getting underway in

the evening. 7-9PM start time in Bangor, 8-10PM start time in

Millinocket, 9-10PM start time in Caribou. Rain will become

moderate to heavy at times overnight as the low tracks NE into

New Hampshire and near the Western Maine/Quebec border by

daybreak. The 925mb LLJ will increase overnight but not

expecting significant mixing due to inversion stability but

expecting some gusty winds 20-30mph especially from the

Longfellow Mtns south and east to the coastline with strongest

winds at the shoreline. Although not strong enough to cause

significant issues, cannot rule out some tree limb damage

resulting in highly localized power outages. Otherwise expecting

temperatures to fall back into the low to mid 40s for most with

some upper 30s in the North Woods.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Friday: The occlusion of the low pressure system should start

to move through the region. Highest rainfall amounts for the day

are expected in the morning mainly across the eastern border.

This should bring rainfall amount totals into the 1.5-2 inch

range. Some areas in the south could see the higher end due to

terrain. Rainfall could cause some urban flooding throughout the

day. E winds are expected to become breezy in the morning, then

decrease slightly in the early afternoon, then increase again

as WNW winds in the evening as the center of the low exits.

Temps should be in the 50s.

Friday night: As the system exits to the NE, moisture will wrap

around the center, keeping rain in the region for the night,

especially across the north. WNW winds should become gusty again

throughout the night. Rain should be fairly light. Temps should

be in the 40s.

Saturday: The exiting low and the approaching high pressure is

expected to tighten pressure gradients, causing WNW winds to

become gusty again with up to 35 mph winds. The main concern

will be the saturated soil and gusty winds causing trees to

fall. Temps should be in the upper 40s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure moves into the region Saturday night and remains

until Monday. By Monday afternoon, a surface trof should bring

the next round of rain to the area, though models disagree on

the timing and amount of rain with the trof. By Tuesday night,

the models become inconsistent with the exiting trof and

approaching ridge. As of this update, the models are picking up

on the next system toward the end of the week. Temps should be

near normal.

&&......

3:51 PM ADT Wednesday 29 October 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Rain and strong winds expected on Halloween (Friday).

Locations: Nova Scotia.

Potential rainfall: 30 to 50 mm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Potential wind gusts: southeasterly 70 to 80 km/h, except up to 110 from Margaree Harbour to Bay St. Lawrence.

Time span: Rain and strong southeasterly winds will spread eastward across the province on Friday and ease from west to east Friday night. 

Remarks: There remains some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall will occur; however, the potential exists for significant totals in some areas. Warnings may be required.

Clear storm drains and gutters of leaves and other debris in advance of the rainfall to help reduce flooding. Secure outdoor items, including Halloween decorations and garbage bins, to prevent them from being displaced or damaged by strong winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

3:48 PM ADT Wednesday 29 October 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Rain and gusty winds expected on Halloween (Friday).

Locations: New Brunswick.

Potential rainfall: 30 to 50 mm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Potential wind gusts: east to southeasterly up to 70 km/h along the coast.

Time span: Rain and gusty winds will spread eastward across the province early Friday and taper from west to east later in the day or early Friday night.

Remarks: There remains some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall will occur; however, the potential exists for significant totals in some areas. Warnings may be required.

Clear storm drains and gutters of leaves and other debris prior to the rainfall to help reduce flooding. Secure outdoor items, including Halloween decorations and garbage bins, to prevent them from being displaced or damaged by strong winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

3:41 PM ADT Wednesday 29 October 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Rain and strong winds expected on Halloween (Friday).

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Potential rainfall: 30 to 50 mm.

Potential wind gusts: east to southeasterly 70 to 80 km/h.

Time span: near midday Friday until Friday evening.

Remarks: There remains some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall will occur; however, the potential exists for significant totals in some areas. Warnings may be required.

Clear storm drains and gutters of leaves and other debris in advance of the rainfall to help reduce flooding. Secure outdoor items, including Halloween decorations and garbage bins, to prevent them from being displaced or damaged by strong winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

2:37 PM ADT Wednesday 29 October 2025

Tropical Cyclone Information Statement (Melissa) in effect for:

Marine Zone

Maritime Waters

Laurentian Fan

Newfoundland Waters

East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south

Northern Grand Banks

Southeastern Grand Banks

Southwestern Grand Banks

The CHC is monitoring Hurricane Melissa as it continues moving through the Bahamas.  While it accelerates northward, a very broad area of low pressure will intensify over the northeastern U.S. bringing rain and gusty winds to a large portion of eastern Canada - as far west as southern Ontario.  The eastern portion of that very large non-tropical low could tap into some moisture from Melissa, increasing the rainfall amounts to a marginal extent  in Atlantic Canada.  

It will be a wet and windy Halloween and start to the weekend for many, and for the most part, that weather will NOT be attributed to the hurricane.

The wind circulation of Melissa is expected to track offshore of Newfoundland but recent weather model trends suggest it may track closer to the island portion of that province than expected earlier.  

IMPORTANT: Some models predict the centre - of what will likely be post-tropical Melissa by early Saturday - tracking very close to or even over the Avalon Peninsula.  That scenario is a possibility which could bring some extra wind there.  

With the farther-north trajectory of the remnants of Hurricane Melissa, the CHC will go into 24/7 mode starting Thursday morning until likely early Saturday. This bulletin is currently only explicitly in effect for offshore zones where the direct impacts will be focussed. Land zones will be added in subsequent updates if warranted. 

The next information statement will be issued by 9:30 a.m. NDT Thursday.

Forecaster: Fogarty

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.