Extreme Cold Locally And Potentially Historic Winter Storm Fern In The Eastern USA

01/23/2026

New Brunswick 

Bathurst Airport

Max: -5.5°C

Min: -18.2°C

Charlo

Max: -6.4°C

Min: -18.4°C

Doaktown

Max: -4.9°C

Min: -19.2°C

Edmundston

Max: -7.9°C

Min: -24.1°C

Maine

Caribou

Max: 18°F/-°C

Min: -2°F/-°C

Fort Kent

Max: 25°F/-°C

Min: -6°F/-°C

Van Buren 2

Max: 16°F/-°C

Min: -6°F/-°C

711

FXUS61 KCAR 242330

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

630 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Updated Aviation Section below to reflect 0Z TAF package

- Issued a Cold Weather Advisory valid until 10 AM Sunday

- Upgraded areas including and south of central Piscataquis,

  northern Penobscot, and southern Aroostook counties to Winter

  Storm Warnings. A Winter Storm Watch was issued for northern

  Piscataquis and central Aroostook counties. A Winter Storm

  Advisory was issued for northwest Aroostook and northern

  Somerset counties.

- Increased snow totals for the Sunday night through Monday

  night storm based on a slight northward shift of model

  guidance

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A frigid air mass combined with breezy winds will result in

very cold wind chills continuing through the remainder of this

weekend

2) High confidence a significant winter storm will impact the

region Sunday night through Monday night with the highest totals

over Downeast Maine

3) Colder than average temperatures continue this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A frigid air mass combined with breezy winds

will result in very cold wind chills continuing through the

remainder of this weekend

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

As of mid-day today, temperatures are currently struggling to

reach above 0 degrees and winds remain breezy resulting in very

cold wind chills as low as -25 degrees over the north. Winds

will start to relax this evening as high pressure to our west

builds in and the pressure gradient over our area starts to

decrease. However, the center of the high will still be just off

to our west by Sunday morning resulting in a weak pressure

gradient just over northern and eastern Maine. Current model

guidance is expressing high confidence that there will be a

light breeze overnight which should favor some modest low level

mixing. This should prevent strong radiational cooling and

temperatures bottoming out well below guidance, but it will

mean wind chills remain well below zero, as low as -25 to -35

over the north and -15 to -25 over southern areas. Given that

skies will be clear tonight some areas, especially valleys,

still have the potential to experience some radiational cooling

and thus have lowered temperatures in those places slightly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High confidence a significant winter storm will

impact the region Sunday night through Monday night with the

highest totals over Downeast Maine

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A strong low pressure system is expected to redevelop off the

mid-Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon and move northeast along the

New England coast. The most recent model trends show the track

of the storm slightly farther north and thus forecast snow

totals were increased over much of the area, especially for

northern Maine.

Snow should begin in central Maine, the Bangor region, and Bar

Harbor Sunday evening based on the latest high resolution

guidance trends, however, would not be surprised if the onset is

delayed an hour or two due to ample residual low-level dry air

from the high to our north that will take time to saturate. Snow

spreads northeast Sunday night as the low approaches with

flakes expected to be falling everywhere by just after midnight.

Currently expecting the heaviest snowfall to be in Downeast

Maine between just before midnight through early Monday

morning. Model soundings show very favorable profiles with

nearly all of the saturated layer below 500mb in the dendritic

growth zone. Combined with ample lift in the layer this should

contribute to very high snow to liquid ratios exceeding 20 to 1

resulting in very efficient, fluffy snowfall.

There has been a slight northern shift in projected low track

for the storm, as seen across nearly all ensemble spreads and

was reflected with the newest run of the NBM. Though moderate to

heavy snowfall remains on track for the Downeast region, with

over a foot of snow likely in many areas, there is now increased

uncertainty in snow amounts across the northern half of the CWA.

If the QPF gradient on the northern edge of the storm is tight

enough, storm totals in the north may only reach 2 to 4 inches.

However, especially if the northern trend continues, however

slight it may be, much more substantial QPF amounts may make

their way into northern Aroostook and Piscataquis counties, such

that totals make a run for closer to 8 or 9 inches. For this

reason, a watch has been issued for northeast Aroostook and

northern Piscataquis counties. Further north, even a continued

northern trend will probably not be enough of a shift to bring

warning level snow, so northern Somerset and northwest Aroostook

counties now have an advisory hoisted.

Snow amounts Downeast, though confidence is high in warning

level totals, do have some uncertainty in exact numbers. Aside

from QPF, discussed above, the biggest complicating factor is

that of snow to liquid ratios (SLRs). Forecast soundings from

the GFS and NAM suggest very deep DGZ for areas Downeast, which

could result in SLRs surpassing 25:1, and a very fluffy snow

that may even at times top out over 30:1! That said, a LLJ will

continue to build through Monday morning, and the increase to

low to mid level winds will result in damage to crystal

structure, lowering SLRs. With this forecast, stuck with around

20:1 ratios to continue to capture the fluffy snow character

without catching onto any extreme case at this point.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

With the arctic air mass still in place over the forecast area

through the upcoming work week, temperatures are projected to

run around 2 standard deviations below normal throughout the

forecast area, with highs in the teens and lows in the single

digits above zero Downeast and around zero across the north.

With a sustained upper level trough overhead through the week,

enough wind may exist such that wind chills make a run for

advisory Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Tonight through Sunday...VFR. W wind around 10 kt tonight with

a few higher gusts, becoming light N to NE on Sunday.

Sunday night...IFR/LIFR developing from S to N across the area

in developing snow. N to NE wind 10 to 15 kt.

Monday through Monday Night...IFR conditions expected for southern

terminals, and probable for northern terminals, through Monday

due to snow. Conditions improve back towards MVFR Monday night.

Potential for periods of blowing snow by KBHB/coastal terminals.

Winds NE 5 to 15 kts, switching to the NW overnight. Gusts 20 to

25 kts.

Tuesday through Thursday...MVFR/VFR with W winds 5 to 10 kts,

shifting NW on Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts possible each

afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Through Sunday night...

Below SCA winds on the intracoastal waters by around midnight

tonight and by early Sunday morning on the coastal waters. Gale

conditions expected on all waters Sunday night with seas

building to 6 to 8 ft. Moderate freezing spray expected through

about mid day Sunday with light/moderate freezing spray

expected Sunday night.

Gale conditions will likely continue through Tuesday morning

before finally tapering below 35 kts on the coastal waters.

Intracoastals will have gusts 25 to 35 kts through this time.

Seas 6 to 10 ft with the snow storm Monday through Monday

night. Gusts 25 to 30 kts likely to continue through the middle

of the week on the coastal waters. Light freezing spray on

Monday becomes moderate Monday night through Tuesday night.

Freezing spray remains possible through the middle of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MEZ001>006-

     010-011-015>017-031-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 3 AM EST Tuesday

     for MEZ001-003.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday

     night for MEZ002-004.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 3 AM EST Tuesday for

     MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.

     Freezing Spray Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052.

     Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for

     ANZ050-051.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ052.

     Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for

     ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/TWD/SM

AVIATION...AES/SM

MARINE...AES/SM

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1245 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032-250145-

/O.UPG.KCAR.WS.A.0001.260126T0000Z-260127T0800Z/

/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.W.0002.260126T0000Z-260127T0800Z/

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-

Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central

Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-Southern

Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Bangor, Ellsworth, Vanceboro, Houlton,

Orland, Dover-Foxcroft, Bar Harbor, Medway, Topsfield, Brewer,

Orono, Lincoln, Bucksport, Sherman, Great Pond, Monson, Wesley,

East Millinocket, Howland, Hodgdon, Machias, Milo, Grand Lake

Stream, Old Town, Amherst, Eastport, Perry, Patten, Greenville,

Cherryfield, Aurora, Guilford, Eastbrook, Castine, Calais,

Millinocket, Blanchard, Springfield, Dedham, Princeton, Smyrna

Mills, and Danforth

1245 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST

TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10

  and 15 inches, with the highest totals likely being south of

  Millinocket.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far

  Eastern, Interior Downeast, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From 7 PM Sunday to 3 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The

  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening

  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must travel,

keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of

an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1245 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

MEZ002-004-250145-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.A.0002.260126T0000Z-260127T0800Z/

Northeast Aroostook-Northern Piscataquis-

Including the cities of Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Caribou,

Ashland, Baxter St Park, Van Buren, Presque Isle, Mars Hill, and

Chamberlain Lake

1245 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE

MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 6 and

  11 inches possible.

* WHERE...Northeast Aroostook and Northern Piscataquis Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions

  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,

sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to

monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1245 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

MEZ001-003-250145-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WW.Y.0006.260126T0000Z-260127T0800Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Including the cities of Fort Kent, Baker Lake, Madawaska,

Billy-Jack Depot, Allagash, Frenchville, and Clayton Lake

1245 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST

TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6

  inches.

* WHERE...Northwest Aroostook and Northern Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Sunday to 3 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause

primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited

visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

3:49 PM AST Saturday 24 January 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

A long period of snowfall with total amounts of 15 to 25 cm is expected.

Locations: southwestern New Brunswick.

Total snowfall: 15 to 25 cm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Time span: Sunday night until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: Snow will move in to southwest New Brunswick on Sunday night and persist through the day Monday. Strong wind gusts may develop on Monday morning which could lead to reduced visibilities in blowing snow. Snow is expected to be light and fluffy in nature and will taper off by Tuesday morning.

Roads and walkways will likely be difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to snowfall accumulations.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

3:47 PM AST Saturday 24 January 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

A long period of snowfall with total amounts of 20 to 30 cm is expected.

Locations: central Nova Scotia.

Total snowfall: 20 to 30 cm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Potential wind gusts: 50 to 70 km/h.

Time span: Sunday night until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: Snow will move in to southwest Nova Scotia on Sunday night and persist through the day Monday. Strong wind gusts may develop on Monday morning which could lead to reduced visibilities in blowing snow. Snow is expected to be light and fluffy in nature and will taper off by Tuesday morning.

Roads and walkways will likely be difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to snowfall accumulations.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West