First Nor'Easter Of The Season Forming Update One

628

FXUS61 KCAR 242335

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

735 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- 7 PM Update to the Aviation section with the issuance of the

  00z TAFs. Raised evening temperatures due to current

  observations and trends.

- Increased confidence in forecast winds.

- Still low confidence in rain totals.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this

weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and

periods of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine

this weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and

periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

We are still expecting a strong Noreaster impacting our area

from Friday through the weekend and into Monday. However, we

will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the

center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and

impacts this far north through Sunday will be much less than

areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various

components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than

northern areas for the storm, with rain possibly developing

late Friday night, but more likely on Saturday, and persisting

off and on through Monday. There is still substantial

uncertainty on the northern extent of the rain. Most likely

Downeast up to Bangor will see periods of rain through the

weekend, but totals could be anywhere from one quarter inch to

two inches, as there is a ton of uncertainty. Even with the

higher totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday night and

Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster finally lifts

north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which point rain

chances finally increase over the whole area. That said, not

expecting anything heavy.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase Friday

night into Saturday, remain gusty through Sunday, then decrease

a bit into Monday. Winds will be stronger the further south you

go, with gusts topping out around only 20 mph in Northern Maine

this weekend, but 25-35 mph Bangor and Downeast. We don`t

anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very

isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 5-9 ft

seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We

are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves

breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers.

Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock

than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night

into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Tonight-Friday night...VFR across all terminals. Brief MVFR/IFR

possible late tonight in patchy fog valley fog, primarily at

KHUL/KPQI though all terminals have a chance for brief vis

decreases. Chance is too low for mention in 00z TAFs. Light and

variable winds, then NE winds increase at Downeast terminals

5-15 kts on Friday.

Saturday - Monday...VFR north, except MVFR possible Monday.

VFR/MVFR Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern

areas, N/NE winds 5 to 15 knots. Across Downeast areas, N/NE

winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 20-30 knots

Saturday/Sunday, with winds diminishing a bit Sunday night and

Monday back to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds increase to Gales late tonight into Friday,

winds peaking around 45 knots in the outer waters and around 40

knots in the coastal waters by Friday night. A Gale Warning is

now in effect from 2AM on Friday in outer waters and from 11AM

in coastal waters and will persist through at least 8PM Sunday

night. Gales remain possible in the intracoastal waters, where a

Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Peak wave heights in the

outer waters will be around 11ft to 16ft, and around 7ft to 12ft

in the coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for

coastal Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip

current risk and impact people on rock outcrops.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for

     MEZ029.

MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-

     051.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for

     ANZ052.

     Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ080-

     081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF

AVIATION...AES/TF/ARL

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

430 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 27 2026

...A strong coastal low will bring coastal flooding, rip currents, wind

gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend..

...Heavy rainfall/flooding threat from Arizona to the central High Plains

through tonight will begin to gradually lessen on Friday...

An upper-level trough digging into the eastern U.S. will interact with a

cool air mass sliding east into the western Atlantic to develop a deep

coastal cyclone just off the East Coast over the next few days.  The

cool air will be moistened and lifted by the digging upper trough as a

large high pressure system feeds that cool air across the still warm

waters of the western Atlantic.  The result will be a rather strong

cyclone that will bring widespread strong to gale-force winds up the East

Coast of the U.S. through the next few days.  Considerable uncertainty

remains regarding this cyclone's track, but models agree that the cyclone

center will approach and then stall just off southeastern New England

Friday and into the weekend.  Much of Friday could remain rain free along

the East Coast but cool and damp northeasterly winds will continue to

strengthen as the storm deepens offshore.  Steady rain may hold off until

Friday night across southeastern New England before spreading gradually

westward into southern New England by Saturday morning.  Additionally,

expect wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding,

high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion.  Please see the latest WPC Key

Messages for this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture across the Four Corners will be lifted ahead

of an upper-level trough moving onshore into Baja California, bringing a

moderate risk of flash flooding over south-central New Mexico and a slight

risk of flash flooding through the southern Rockies to the southern High

Plains through tonight.  The associated plume of moisture will gradually

shift east together with the upper trough, allowing the heavy rain threat

to gradually diminish on Friday for the southern Rockies to the southern

High Plains.  However, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is forecast for

southeastern New Mexico due to saturated soils from previous

rainfall.  Friday into Saturday morning should see moderate to locally

heavy rain developing and meandering over the central Plains toward Iowa

and Missouri ahead of a low-pressure wave and a stationary front.

A strong Pacific shortwave will deepen as it moves into the Pacific

Northwest late today.  The strong dynamics associated with this system will

result in widespread showers across Washington and Oregon reaching the

coast later today and through the interior Pacific Northwest on Friday.

With the arrival of cooler air, wet snow may occur over the highest

elevations within the northern Rockies and Cascades.

Kong

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Caribou ME

226 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

MEZ029-250800-

/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.260925T1200Z-260928T0000Z/

Coastal Hancock-

226 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM

EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet. Highest waves will

  impact the outermost islands.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock County.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Large waves can present a danger to people on rocks

  above the water. Stay away from rock outcrops along the

  shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves can easily sweep

  people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In

The Advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach

erosion.

&&

$$