Hanna Update 2

WOCN31 CWHX 061200
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
SATURDAY 06 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...VERY WET REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA EXPECTED OVER THE
MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.5 N AND LONGITUDE 78.1 W... ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES OR 65 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH-DURHAM . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 985
MB. HANNA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS... 35 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.6N 78.1W 985 45 83 INLAND
SEP 06 3.00 PM 37.3N 76.8W 990 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 06 9.00 PM 39.4N 74.2W 992 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 3.00 AM 41.2N 72.1W 993 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 9.00 AM 42.7N 68.9W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 3.00 PM 44.9N 64.7W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.5N 60.0W 996 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 AM 48.2N 56.2W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 48.8N 51.4W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 PM 49.5N 46.8W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.0N 42.0W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK..PEI AND NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH 40 TO
80 MM LIKELY. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC
STORM PREDICTION CENTRE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS.
SOME COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 100 MM TO BE POSSIBLE.
SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA..GUSTING TO AROUND
60 KM/H.

WITH THE HEAVY RAINS WILL COME THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCAL FLOODING
IN PRONE AREAS AND POSSIBLE ROAD OR SHOULDER WASHOUTS..ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALREADY IN THE GROUND OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION.

A LEADING AREA OF MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF HANNA..BUT NOT RELATED TO
THE STORM..MAY BRING SOME HEAVY SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE MARITIMES
TODAY WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 15 MM POSSIBLE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
POST-TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS FORECAST TO BRING GALES TO SOUTHERN
MARITIME WATERS ON SUNDAY AND TO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HANNA AND THE DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH MARITIME WATERS TODAY..HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 3 METRES THEN BUILD TO 5 METRES IN THE OFFSHORE REGIONS
ON SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
HANNA MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 420 AM ADT NEAR THE BORDER
BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA JUST SHY OF HURRICANE
STATUS WITH WINDS NEAR 55 TO 60 KTS AND CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB.

B. PROGNOSTIC
IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HANNA WILL BE THE RAINFALL. WE STILL EXPECT THE CENTRE OF THE
REMNANT LOW TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND MOVE UP ALONG
THE LENGTH OF THE PROVINCE. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTRE TRACKS..BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS AT THIS TIME. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL SERVES AS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF RAIN AND WIND. MODEL QPF SEEMS QUITE
REASONABLE AND IS APPROPRIATELY SKEWED LEFT OF THE LOW'S TRACK. QPF
AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK REASONABLE WITH A 50 TO 100 MM SWATH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MARITIMES. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GEM REG WITH REGARD TO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS CONTINUE SUGGESTING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE PRIOR TO IT REACHING CANADIAN WATERS.
THIS INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BEHAVE GENERALLY LIKE A
TRADITIONAL BAROCLINIC CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES THE MARITIMES.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
THESE WIND RADII REPRESENT BOTH HANNA AND THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION
AT THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STORM.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
06/12Z 200 200 60 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 200 200 40 0 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 175 200 40 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 150 200 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 120 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 75 280 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 75 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 120 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 150 250 150 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 170 250 150 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 180 250 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END FOGARTY/SUTHERLAND/BORGEL/CAMPBELL

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ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HANNA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
340 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM HANNA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA AT ABOUT 320 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


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