Tropical Storm Hanna Update 1
WOCN31 CWHX 050000
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 04 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
...REMNANTS OF HANNA EXPECTED OVER MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.0 N AND LONGITUDE 76.2 W... ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES OR 170 KM
NORTHEAST OF NASSAU . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. HANNA IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 29 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 04 9.00 PM 26.0N 76.2W 989 55 102
SEP 05 9.00 AM 29.0N 77.2W 990 60 111
SEP 05 9.00 PM 32.0N 77.9W 990 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.4N 76.8W 992 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 PM 39.0N 73.7W 996 55 102
SEP 07 9.00 AM 42.8N 69.0W 999 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.2N 62.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 49.0N 55.0W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.8N 46.3W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 9.00 AM 51.7N 37.1W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT IT APPEARS HANNA MAY BRING
WIND AND RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG-PERIOD
WAVES/SURF FROM HANNA AND ANOTHER DISTANT STORM..IKE..SHOULD BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AGAIN TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS... BUT BASED ON LATEST
PROJECTIONS HANNA MAY BRING GALES TO MARITIME WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HANNA
AND DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH MARITIME WATERS
ON SATURDAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE THERE MAY BE A LEADING AREA OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF HANNA OVER THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF HANNA INDICATES A RATHER SUB-TROPICAL
APPEARANCE WITH DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE STORM WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INHIBITING CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CORE. NOT SURPRISINGLY NHC HAS
REDUCED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THIS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS MEASURED DURING A MORNING FLIGHT RECON. HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY BLOSSOMED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MW IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SOME IMPROVED ORGANISATION ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.
B. PROGNOSTIC
DESPITE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AND SOMEWHAT UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM..HANNA IS EXPECTED TO SOON MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVOURABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND WEAKENING OF HANNA WILL LIKELY BEGIN THEREAFTER. PHASE SPACE
PROGNOSTICS GENERALLY AGREE TRANSITIONING WILL TAKE PLACE SOMETIME
BETWEEN THE 6TH TO 7TH...IMPLYING HANNA WILL VERY LIKELY BE
POST-TROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MARITIMES.
CHC TRACK STILL EXPLICITLY FOLLOWING NHC TRACK AT THIS POINT...AND
LATEST TRACK SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS BULLETIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ALL SIMILAR IN CURVING HANNA TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
BRUSHING THE EASTERN US SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE NOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CLUSTERED IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK IN TAKING
HANNA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THESE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND RAINFALL.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NIL.
D. MARINE WEATHER
NIL.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
05/00Z 275 200 30 230 90 0 0 90 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 260 200 45 230 90 10 0 85 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 240 195 60 195 80 35 0 75 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 215 195 55 130 75 60 0 35 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 185 210 50 70 65 65 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 120 220 50 20 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 60 215 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 45 205 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/12Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WIND RADII OF TRANSITIONING SYSTEM REFLECTS ENVIRONMENT PLUS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
END FOGARTY/CAMPBELL
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 04 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
...REMNANTS OF HANNA EXPECTED OVER MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.0 N AND LONGITUDE 76.2 W... ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES OR 170 KM
NORTHEAST OF NASSAU . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. HANNA IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 29 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 04 9.00 PM 26.0N 76.2W 989 55 102
SEP 05 9.00 AM 29.0N 77.2W 990 60 111
SEP 05 9.00 PM 32.0N 77.9W 990 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.4N 76.8W 992 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 PM 39.0N 73.7W 996 55 102
SEP 07 9.00 AM 42.8N 69.0W 999 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.2N 62.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 49.0N 55.0W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.8N 46.3W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 9.00 AM 51.7N 37.1W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT IT APPEARS HANNA MAY BRING
WIND AND RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG-PERIOD
WAVES/SURF FROM HANNA AND ANOTHER DISTANT STORM..IKE..SHOULD BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AGAIN TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS... BUT BASED ON LATEST
PROJECTIONS HANNA MAY BRING GALES TO MARITIME WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HANNA
AND DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH MARITIME WATERS
ON SATURDAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE THERE MAY BE A LEADING AREA OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF HANNA OVER THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF HANNA INDICATES A RATHER SUB-TROPICAL
APPEARANCE WITH DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE STORM WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INHIBITING CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CORE. NOT SURPRISINGLY NHC HAS
REDUCED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THIS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS MEASURED DURING A MORNING FLIGHT RECON. HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY BLOSSOMED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MW IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SOME IMPROVED ORGANISATION ON THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.
B. PROGNOSTIC
DESPITE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING AND SOMEWHAT UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM..HANNA IS EXPECTED TO SOON MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVOURABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND WEAKENING OF HANNA WILL LIKELY BEGIN THEREAFTER. PHASE SPACE
PROGNOSTICS GENERALLY AGREE TRANSITIONING WILL TAKE PLACE SOMETIME
BETWEEN THE 6TH TO 7TH...IMPLYING HANNA WILL VERY LIKELY BE
POST-TROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MARITIMES.
CHC TRACK STILL EXPLICITLY FOLLOWING NHC TRACK AT THIS POINT...AND
LATEST TRACK SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS BULLETIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE ALL SIMILAR IN CURVING HANNA TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
BRUSHING THE EASTERN US SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE NOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CLUSTERED IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK IN TAKING
HANNA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THESE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND RAINFALL.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NIL.
D. MARINE WEATHER
NIL.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
05/00Z 275 200 30 230 90 0 0 90 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 260 200 45 230 90 10 0 85 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 240 195 60 195 80 35 0 75 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 215 195 55 130 75 60 0 35 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 185 210 50 70 65 65 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 120 220 50 20 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 60 215 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 45 205 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/12Z 40 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WIND RADII OF TRANSITIONING SYSTEM REFLECTS ENVIRONMENT PLUS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
END FOGARTY/CAMPBELL
posted by Advackia at 5:05 PM
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