Power category 4 Hurricane Ike a danger to Florida and the USA SE Coast

000
WTNT34 KNHC 042031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT....

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...58.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT44 KNHC 042032
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE
CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE
SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH
THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM
WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN
RESTRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE
LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE
TOMORROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL
BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE
GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS
BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.6N 58.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE