Newly minted Hurricane Hanna a future threat to the Eastern Seaboard

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST...OR JUST EAST OF
MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

HANNA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOUR BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK HANNA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. A WIND GUST OF 61 MPH WAS
RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...22.2 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

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FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

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HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT. THESE
NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR
POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN HANNA'S
TENACITY THUS FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL
BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR. AT DAY 5...HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE
INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN.

THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING. HOWEVER...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW
DISSIPATED...THE CYCLONE'S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF
IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. UNTIL
HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE
MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA. ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.2N 72.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.9N 72.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.8N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.1N 73.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.1N 74.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND

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FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

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