Tropical Storm Hanna Update 5

WOCN31 CWHX 070000
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
SATURDAY 06 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA TO CROSS THE MARITIMES
ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.5 N AND LONGITUDE 74.6 W...NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H...
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 992 MB. HANNA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
24 KNOTS... 44 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 06 9.00 PM 39.5N 74.6W 992 45 83 INLAND
SEP 07 3.00 AM 41.5N 71.9W 992 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 9.00 AM 43.6N 68.4W 994 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 3.00 PM 45.2N 64.4W 998 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.8N 60.1W 998 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 AM 47.9N 55.9W 997 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 49.0N 51.6W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 PM 49.6N 46.7W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.2N 41.7W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 3.00 AM 50.8N 36.7W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 9.00 AM 51.5N 31.6W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL WARNINGS WERE ISSUED BY
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE TODAY FOR SOUTHERN
NEW BRUNSWICK..PEI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH 40 TO
80 MM LIKELY.. WITH SOME COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NEAR 100 MM
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NOVA
SCOTIA..GUSTING TO AROUND 70 KM/H. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.

A LEADING AREA OF MOISTURE UNRELATED TO HANNA THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AT TIMES HEAVY TO PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM HANNA EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WILL GIVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS AND POSSIBLE ROAD OR SHOULDER WASHOUTS..ESPECIALLY COMBINED
WITH THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURED TODAY AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ALREADY IN THE GROUND OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER MARITIME WATERS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF
POST-TROPICAL STORM HANNA ON SUNDAY. THESE GALES WILL LIKELY
SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH NEAR 5
METRES IN THE OFFSHORE REGIONS BY LATE SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
THE CENTRE OF HANNA IS STILL INLAND OVER NEW JERSEY..AND LATEST
RADAR DATA SHOWS THE BULK OF HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SHIFTING MORE AND
MORE TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. SHIP AND BUOY DATA IN
THE PATH OF HANNA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF AROUND 993 MB AND AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS..AND THUS IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE TIME BEING.


B. PROGNOSTIC
IT STILL APPEARS THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE REMNANTS OF HANNA
WILL BE RAINFALL. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT
WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HANNA..WITH THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW ALONG A PATH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY AROUND NOON SUNDAY. THE LATEST CHC TRACK REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE..AS WELL AS THE NHC TRACK..AND TAKES
THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK ACROSS
THE FUNDY COASTLINE OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM..BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE
OVERLY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL
STILL SERVES AS THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR RAINFALL AND WIND..ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z RUN BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON QPF FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND IS APPROPRIATELY SKEWED LEFT OF
THE LOW'S TRACK WITH A 50 MM TO 100 MM SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MARITIMES. LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE GEM REG
WITH REGARD TO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATION..ALTHOUGH ARE
HINTING AT JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSSIBLE TOTALS.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS CONTINUE SUGGESTING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE PRIOR TO IT REACHING CANADIAN WATERS.
THIS INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BEHAVE GENERALLY LIKE A
TRADITIONAL BAROCLINIC CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES THE MARITIMES.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
THESE WIND RADII REPRESENT BOTH HANNA AND THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION
AT THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STORM.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
07/00Z 200 200 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 150 220 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 150 240 100 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 150 250 150 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 150 250 150 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 150 250 150 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 150 250 150 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 170 250 150 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 180 250 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/06Z 190 250 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/12Z 190 250 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END BORGEL/CAMPBELL/HATT/LAFORTUNE

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 062355
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY IN LOCATION BLOCK

...HANNA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT RACES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM CAPE HENLOPEN NORTHWARD TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG
ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR NEAR
ATLANTIC NEW JERSEY. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES...180
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY AND 120 MILES...195 KM
SOUTHWEST OF ISLIP NEW YORK.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HANNA WILL CROSS THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

INFORMATION FROM SHIPS...BUOYS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...93
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...HANNA IS FORECAST TO
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...TWO SHIPS NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/HR AND 46 MPH...74
KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM
A NOAA BUOY IN DELAWARE BAY IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ABLEMARLE SOUNDS...
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE
REGIONS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...39.5 N...74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART