Hurricane Bill Heads Towards Landfall in Newfoundland #2

WOCN31 CWHX 240000
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Sunday
23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 12.00 midnight ADT

...Bill on its way to Southeastern Newfoundland..Surge and wave
Threat increasing for Avalon/Burin region...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 46.3 N
And longitude 58.3 W... About 75 nautical miles or 135 km east of
Sydney . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120
Km/h... And central pressure at 970 MB. Bill is moving
East northeast at 40 knots... 74 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.3N 58.3W 970 65 120
Aug 24 3.00 AM 48.1N 52.9W 978 55 102
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 48.1W 985 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 3.00 PM 50.2N 42.9W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.9N 36.8W 990 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

For the Maritimes:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for eastern mainland Nova
Scotia and Cape Breton as well as eastern pei. Wind speeds of
65 km/h with gusts to 90 are occurring over these areas.

The hurricane watch is ended for Eastern Nova Scotia.

For Newfoundland:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Eastern Newfoundland.
Wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100 and local wind gusts to
120 km/h over exposed coastal areas are expected to the south of
The storm track. Tropical storm watch for remaining regions of
Newfoundland except the Northern Peninsula.

Weather impacts:

Rainfall...
A swath of very heavy rain will fall to the north and along the storm
track. Rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm are expected over
Southern and Central Newfoundland. Local amounts exceeding 100 mm
Are possible. As a result..Local flooding can be expected in
flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce visibilities and lead
to standing water presenting a hazard to motorists. Heavy rainfall
Has the potential to cause street flooding..Undermining of some road
Surfaces..Washouts and flooded basements.

Winds...
The presence of strong east to northeasterly winds and rain-laden
tree foliage could lead to the breaking of some tree branches which
would down some utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that
the storm behavior changes where the wind threat could also change.
Winds have already caused tree damage and lead to power outages for
thousands of residents in Southern Nova Scotia.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy surf
(significant waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres) is forecast over
Southeastern Newfoundland. A local surge up to 1.2 metres is
possible in Placentia Bay where a storm surge warning is in effect.
Wave and surge conditions may lead to shoreline erosion and damage
To wharves and coastal structures. It is worthy to note that spring
Tides are occurring..Increasing the threat of coastal flooding
especially in the Argentia and placentia area where the storm is
expected to arrive near the local high tide. Reports of coastal
flooding and inundation have already been reported in Nova Scotia.
Additional observational details have appeared in the 6.00 PM
intermediate bulletin.

Attention: spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect over Banquereau marine
district. Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the
track. Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters are
Ranging from 10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details
Are available in the local sea state forecasts. The envelope of
High seas carried with Bill will strike coastal regions of
Newfoundland facing the brunt of the storm. A storm surge warning
Is in effect for the southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland..
Particularly Placentia Bay..As the centre of Bill is expected to
track just to the north.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Bill is still being scanned by weather radar and shows a distinct
signature about 60 NM off shore from Cape Breton. It continues
To track toward Newfoundland. As mentioned.. Rainfalls amounts
Over Nova Scotia tallied up to 60 mm in several localities
With one unofficial report received of 90 mm.

B. Prognostic

No change in basic track and intensity. The storm centre is now over
cooler water so will diminish in intensity. Hurricane force winds
will remain well offshore south of the track. We have observed
Strong winds north of the track and continue to expect this to be
The case as the large circulation of Bill moves northeast.

As noted in previous messages by our office..Extra tropical
transition is much delayed due to the pre-existing tropical airmass
that has been present over Eastern Canada for much of mid August.
This amounts to Bill retaining tropical characteristics longer than
usual. Some traits of extratropical transition are apparent with the
Sheared cloud mass..But there are no fronts associated with this
storm.

C. Public weather
The maximum rainfall is expected over the length of Nova Scotia
And into Central Newfoundland relatively close to the track given
The persisting tropical character of this storm.

D. Marine weather
Radii trimmed-back from previous package in the short term..But
remain similar as previous package as the storm crosses the
Newfoundland region.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0


End fogarty/nickerson/campbell




WOCN31 CWHX 240000
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 MIDNIGHT ADT

...BILL ON ITS WAY TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND..SURGE AND WAVE
THREAT INCREASING FOR AVALON/BURIN REGION...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 58.3 W... ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES OR 135 KM EAST OF
SYDNEY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120
KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. BILL IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.3N 58.3W 970 65 120
AUG 24 3.00 AM 48.1N 52.9W 978 55 102
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 48.1W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 3.00 PM 50.2N 42.9W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.9N 36.8W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

FOR THE MARITIMES:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA
SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON AS WELL AS EASTERN PEI. WIND SPEEDS OF
65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90 ARE OCCURRING OVER THESE AREAS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS ENDED FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100 AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO
120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STORM TRACK. TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR REMAINING REGIONS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.

WEATHER IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE STORM
TRACK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 100 MM ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND. LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 100 MM
ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT..LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LEAD
TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING..UNDERMINING OF SOME ROAD
SURFACES..WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

WINDS...
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN-LADEN
TREE FOLIAGE COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF SOME TREE BRANCHES WHICH
WOULD DOWN SOME UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED IN THE EVENT THAT
THE STORM BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND THREAT COULD ALSO CHANGE.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED TREE DAMAGE AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES FOR
THOUSANDS OF RESIDENTS IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY SURF
(SIGNIFICANT WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES) IS FORECAST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. A LOCAL SURGE UP TO 1.2 METRES IS
POSSIBLE IN PLACENTIA BAY WHERE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
WAVE AND SURGE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO WHARVES AND COASTAL STRUCTURES. IT IS WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING
TIDES ARE OCCURRING..INCREASING THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN THE ARGENTIA AND PLACENTIA AREA WHERE THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR THE LOCAL HIGH TIDE. REPORTS OF COASTAL
FLOODING AND INUNDATION HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN NOVA SCOTIA.
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONAL DETAILS HAVE APPEARED IN THE 6.00 PM
INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN.

ATTENTION: SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER BANQUEREAU MARINE
DISTRICT. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE
TRACK. LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ARE
RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS
ARE AVAILABLE IN THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS. THE ENVELOPE OF
HIGH SEAS CARRIED WITH BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FACING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. A STORM SURGE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND..
PARTICULARLY PLACENTIA BAY..AS THE CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

BILL IS STILL BEING SCANNED BY WEATHER RADAR AND SHOWS A DISTINCT
SIGNATURE ABOUT 60 NM OFF SHORE FROM CAPE BRETON. IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND. AS MENTIONED.. RAINFALLS AMOUNTS
OVER NOVA SCOTIA TALLIED UP TO 60 MM IN SEVERAL LOCALITIES
WITH ONE UNOFFICIAL REPORT RECEIVED OF 90 MM.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE IN BASIC TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW OVER
COOLER WATER SO WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. WE HAVE OBSERVED
STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE TRACK AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF BILL MOVES NORTHEAST.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES BY OUR OFFICE..EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS MUCH DELAYED DUE TO THE PRE-EXISTING TROPICAL AIRMASS
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF MID AUGUST.
THIS AMOUNTS TO BILL RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN
USUAL. SOME TRAITS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ARE APPARENT WITH THE
SHEARED CLOUD MASS..BUT THERE ARE NO FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND INTO CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GIVEN
THE PERSISTING TROPICAL CHARACTER OF THIS STORM.

D. MARINE WEATHER
RADII TRIMMED-BACK FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN THE SHORT TERM..BUT
REMAIN SIMILAR AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE STORM CROSSES THE
NEWFOUNDLAND REGION.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0


END FOGARTY/NICKERSON/CAMPBELL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 232331
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM
SECUM TO BRULE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BRULE
TO MALAGASH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
FROM SAVAGE HARBOUR TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VICTORIA TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST AND FROM
SAVAGE HARBOUR TO LOWER DARNLEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 46.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. WITHIN THE LAST TWO HOURS...SABLE ISLAND REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/HR...AND A PEAK WIND GUST OF 63
MPH...102 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...46.2N 57.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN