Hurricane Bill Pounds Nova Scotia #2

WOCN31 CWHX 231800
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Sunday
23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT with an intermediate
bulletin scheduled for 6.00 PM.

...Hurricane Bill affecting Nova Scotia with heavy rains and
Strong winds..Centre expected to graze Eastern Nova Scotia...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 44.4 N
And longitude 62.6 W... About 40 nautical miles or 75 km
East southeast of Halifax. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 970
MB. Bill is moving northeast at 30 knots... 56 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 51.7N 32.8W 990 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

For the Maritimes:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Nova Scotia from Western
Halifax county to Cape Breton including Antigonish County. Wind
speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90 can be expected over these areas.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for Guysborough County..Richmond
County and Cape Breton county. Wind speeds of 120 km/h with gusts to
140 are possible..Repeat..Possible..For these areas as the centre of
Bill passes very close by later this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for Northern Nova Scotia east
Of Malagash to Antigonish County as well as Central Nova Scotia.
A tropical storm watch also remains in effect for Eastern Prince
Edward Island with potential windspeeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

For Newfoundland:
Tropical storm watches remain in effect for all of Newfoundland
except the Northern Peninsula. Tropical storm warnings are in effect
For southeastern regions of the island..From east of harbour Breton
to Bonavista with potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100
and local wind gusts to 120 km/h over exposed coastal areas to the
south of the storm track.

Weather impacts:

Rainfall...
A swath of very heavy rain will fall to the north and along the storm
Track. Rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm over Nova Scotia..Pei and
Southern Newfoundland are expected. Local amounts exceeding 100 mm
Are possible. As a result.. Local flooding can be expected in
flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce visibilities and lead
to standing water presenting a hazard to motorists. Heavy rainfall
Has the potential to cause street flooding..Undermining of some road
Surfaces..Washouts and flooded basements. Some minor rainfall
Flooding has been reported so far..More details in the next inter-
mediate bulletin at 6 PM local time.

Winds...
The presence of strong east to northeasterly winds and rain-laden
tree foliage could lead to the breaking of some tree branches which
would down some utility lines. Please stay tuned in the event that
the storm behavior changes where the wind threat could also change.
Winds have already caused tree damage and lead to power outages for
thousands of residents in Southern Nova Scotia.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy
Surf (significant waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres) occurring along
the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia (Halifax and east) is also
Expected in Southern Newfoundland. These conditions may lead to
shoreline erosion and damage to wharves and coastal structures as
well as generating dangerous rip currents at local beaches. It is
Worthy to note that spring tides are occurring this weekend..
Increasing the threat of coastal flooding. Reports of coastal
flooding and inundation have been reported. Please see the
intermediate bulletin under the same header that was issued at 12
Noon local time..15 zulu for a summary of observations and impacts
Up to that time. Additional details to appear in the 6.00 PM
intermediate.

Attention: spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds near 65 knots. Storm warnings
are in effect for areas just north of the track. Large waves
generated by Bill over offshore waters are ranging from 10 to 14
metres south of the track. Further details are available in
The local sea state forecasts. The envelope of high seas carried
With hurricane Bill will strike coastal regions of Newfoundland
facing the brunt of Bill. A storm surge "watch" is in effect for the
southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland as the centre of Bill is
expected to track across land there. Waves of 5 to 8 meters have
Been reported coming ashore along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia
so far.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

Bill is being monitored on Nova Scotia radar with the center about
75 km offshore. Heavy arcing bands of rain are being observed moving
across Nova Scotia with rainfall rates up to 20 mm/hr. Surface
weather observations from Nova Scotia have reported upwards of 60 mm
of rainfall so far. A heavy burst of convection northeast of the
storm centre with very heavy rain is seen on satellite and radar
heading toward eastern mainland Nova Scotia.

An earlier ssmis overpass indicated the remnant eyewall/Max winds
were situated about 50 km from the centre. Wind radii have been
fine-tuned using the multiplatform satellite product from cira.
A more complete summary of observations will appear in a 6 PM
Bulletin..21 zulu time.

B. Prognostic

No change in basic track and intensity. The storm centre is now over
cooler water so will diminish in intensity. Hurricane force winds
will remain well offshore south of the track. We have observed
Strong winds north of the track and continue to expect this to be
The case as the large circulation of Bill moves northeast.

As noted in previous messages by our office..Extra tropical
transition is much delayed due to the pre-existing tropical airmass
that has been present over Eastern Canada for much of mid August.
This amounts to Bill retaining tropical characteristics longer than
usual. Some traits of extratropical transition are apparent with the
Sheared cloud mass..But there are no fronts associated with this
storm.

C. Public weather
The maximum rainfall is expected over the length of Nova Scotia
And into Central Newfoundland relatively close to the track given
The persisting tropical character of this storm.

D. Marine weather
Radii trimmed-back from previous package in the short term..But
remain similar as previous package as the storm crosses the
Newfoundland region.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
23/18Z 200 280 190 120 120 180 0 0 55 55 0 0
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

End fogarty/nickerson




WOCN31 CWHX 231800
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE
BULLETIN SCHEDULED FOR 6.00 PM.

...HURRICANE BILL AFFECTING NOVA SCOTIA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG WINDS..CENTRE EXPECTED TO GRAZE EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.6 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 75 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS... 56 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 51.7N 32.8W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

FOR THE MARITIMES:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM WESTERN
HALIFAX COUNTY TO CAPE BRETON INCLUDING ANTIGONISH COUNTY. WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90 CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUYSBOROUGH COUNTY..RICHMOND
COUNTY AND CAPE BRETON COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO
140 ARE POSSIBLE..REPEAT..POSSIBLE..FOR THESE AREAS AS THE CENTRE OF
BILL PASSES VERY CLOSE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA EAST
OF MALAGASH TO ANTIGONISH COUNTY AS WELL AS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND WITH POTENTIAL WINDSPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND:
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEWFOUNDLAND
EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE ISLAND..FROM EAST OF HARBOUR BRETON
TO BONAVISTA WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100
AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK.

WEATHER IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE STORM
TRACK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 100 MM OVER NOVA SCOTIA..PEI AND
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ARE EXPECTED. LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 100 MM
ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT.. LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LEAD
TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING..UNDERMINING OF SOME ROAD
SURFACES..WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS. SOME MINOR RAINFALL
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED SO FAR..MORE DETAILS IN THE NEXT INTER-
MEDIATE BULLETIN AT 6 PM LOCAL TIME.

WINDS...
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN-LADEN
TREE FOLIAGE COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF SOME TREE BRANCHES WHICH
WOULD DOWN SOME UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED IN THE EVENT THAT
THE STORM BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND THREAT COULD ALSO CHANGE.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED TREE DAMAGE AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES FOR
THOUSANDS OF RESIDENTS IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY
SURF (SIGNIFICANT WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES) OCCURRING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA (HALIFAX AND EAST) IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO WHARVES AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AS
WELL AS GENERATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES. IT IS
WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND..
INCREASING THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. REPORTS OF COASTAL
FLOODING AND INUNDATION HAVE BEEN REPORTED. PLEASE SEE THE
INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN UNDER THE SAME HEADER THAT WAS ISSUED AT 12
NOON LOCAL TIME..15 ZULU FOR A SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS AND IMPACTS
UP TO THAT TIME. ADDITIONAL DETAILS TO APPEAR IN THE 6.00 PM
INTERMEDIATE.

ATTENTION: SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 65 KNOTS. STORM WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK. LARGE WAVES
GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ARE RANGING FROM 10 TO 14
METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN
THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS. THE ENVELOPE OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED
WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE "WATCH" IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE CENTRE OF BILL IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS LAND THERE. WAVES OF 5 TO 8 METERS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED COMING ASHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
SO FAR.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

BILL IS BEING MONITORED ON NOVA SCOTIA RADAR WITH THE CENTER ABOUT
75 KM OFFSHORE. HEAVY ARCING BANDS OF RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED MOVING
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 20 MM/HR. SURFACE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM NOVA SCOTIA HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 60 MM
OF RAINFALL SO FAR. A HEAVY BURST OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
STORM CENTRE WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IS SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA.

AN EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED THE REMNANT EYEWALL/MAX WINDS
WERE SITUATED ABOUT 50 KM FROM THE CENTRE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
FINE-TUNED USING THE MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE PRODUCT FROM CIRA.
A MORE COMPLETE SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS WILL APPEAR IN A 6 PM
BULLETIN..21 ZULU TIME.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE IN BASIC TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW OVER
COOLER WATER SO WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. WE HAVE OBSERVED
STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE TRACK AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF BILL MOVES NORTHEAST.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES BY OUR OFFICE..EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS MUCH DELAYED DUE TO THE PRE-EXISTING TROPICAL AIRMASS
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF MID AUGUST.
THIS AMOUNTS TO BILL RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN
USUAL. SOME TRAITS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ARE APPARENT WITH THE
SHEARED CLOUD MASS..BUT THERE ARE NO FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND INTO CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GIVEN
THE PERSISTING TROPICAL CHARACTER OF THIS STORM.

D. MARINE WEATHER
RADII TRIMMED-BACK FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN THE SHORT TERM..BUT
REMAIN SIMILAR AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE STORM CROSSES THE
NEWFOUNDLAND REGION.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
23/18Z 200 280 190 120 120 180 0 0 55 55 0 0
24/00Z 250 290 190 130 130 170 0 0 45 60 0 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 50 40 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/NICKERSON

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231802
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN
SHELBURNE COUNTY TO HUBBARDS IN HALIFAX COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MALAGASH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
TO TIDNISH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO
CHARLESVILLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM EAST OF HUBBARDS TO LISMORE...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY TO POINT ACONIIN IN CAPE
BRETON COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE'S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE'S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...44.4N 62.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH