Hurricane (category 1) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 11

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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
EARL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD
AS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADA AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.
 
EARL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS...BUT IT SHOULD SOON INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE
HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 38.2N  71.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 41.2N  69.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 51.5N  59.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
...HURRICANE EARL REMAINS LARGE BUT IS LOSING ITS PUNCH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...38.2N 71.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CAPE ELIZABETH TO WEST OF STONINGTON
MAINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SEVERAL CHANGES TO CANADIAN WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED
REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO
DELAWARE BAY.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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