Hurricane Ophelia and The Extratropical Cyclone Update Four

Bonavista Peninsula
3:41 PM NDT Sunday 02 October 2011
Rainfall warning for
Bonavista Peninsula continued

Rain at times heavy associated with Ophelia is expected to develop overnight with up to 60 millimeters expected by Monday afternoon.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to transition to a post-tropical storm as it tracks south of the Avalon Peninsula early Monday morning. Ophelia will then cross the Northern Grand Banks and move out to sea Monday afternoon. This system is expected to give rain at times heavy to eastern and Southern Newfoundland starting overnight tonight with accumulations of up to 60 millimeters expected by Monday afternoon. Given the close range of hurricane Ophelia's track to the Avalon Peninsula Monday morning, a tropical storm watch remains in effect for that region which means that there is a possibility of tropical storm force winds (60 gusting to 90 km/h) from Ophelia.

Additionally, large waves and pounding surf are expected to impact the South Coast of Newfoundland with this system with the largest waves arriving near noon Monday.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021746
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
200 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.....

...AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER
PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

WOCN31 CWHX 021745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:53 PM ADT Sunday
2 October 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For hurricane Ophelia.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

      Hurricane Ophelia beginning to turn toward the northeast -
      Expected to track near the Avalon Peninsula Monday morning as a
      Strong post-tropical storm.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 PM ADT.
Location: near 39.9 north 60.5 west.
About 450 kilometres south of Sable Island.
Maximum sustained winds: near 175 km/hour.
Present movement: north-northeast at 50 km/hour.
Minimum central pressure: 964 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Avalon Peninsula.
Rainfall warnings are in effect for Southeastern Newfoundland.

Ophelia has begun to weaken as it moves toward an environment that
will lead to rapid weakening. A frontal zone from Southern
Newfoundland to south of Yarmouth will drift northward tonight with
occasional downpours associated with it. Rain from Ophelia may reach
Cape Breton tonight then affect Southeastern Newfoundland Monday
morning.

Computer models are still showing different scenarios for Ophelia's
track - ranging from the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland to 100
kilometres south of the Avalon.

A. Wind.

Greatest chance for strong winds from Ophelia is over Southeastern
Newfoundland.  There is about a 70% chance of tropical storm
Force winds over the Avalon Peninsula, hence the tropical storm watch
has been maintained. Tropical storm force winds are approximately 60
gusting to 90 km/h. Chance of hurricane-force gusts (120 km/h) in
this area remains low at 5-10%.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings have been issued for Southeastern Newfoundland.

The fore-mentionned frontal system over the Maritimes could tap in
To some of Ophelia's moisture tonight and into Monday giving the
possibility of heavy rainfall over Eastern Nova Scotia especially
Cape Breton. Rainfall directly from Ophelia is expected over Eastern
Newfoundland beginning early Monday morning.  Expect a 4 to 6 hour
period of heavy rainfall over these regions Monday morning.  40 to
60 millimetres with locally up to 75 millimetres is possible with
rainfall rates up to 20 millimetres/hour.

C. Surge/waves.

Waves will be a concern along the South Coast of Newfoundland Monday.
A range of 5 to 7 metres is likely along the South Coast of
Newfoundland - Fortune bay and east.  Ocean swell will also begin
To reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia tonight and Monday.
Incident swell height of 3 metres breaking in the 4-metre
(10-14-foot) range is possible late tonight along the Atlantic coast
of Nova Scotia.  With regard to storm surge, 40 to 60 cm is possible
Monday morning around the Avalon and Burin peninsulas. This should
not pose significant problems but a farther-north track would
necessitate an increase in forecast water levels.  The centre of
post-tropical Ophelia is forecast to arrive before the early
afternoon high tide.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southeastern
Maritimes marine areas near and to the right of Ophelia's track.
Gale or storm warnings are in effect for adjacent areas and portions
of the Grand Banks and Eastern Newfoundland waters. Ophelia's wind
field is relatively compact with its strongest winds confined
Very close to its center.

Large waves are expected in the offshore - especially to the right
(southeast) and close to Ophelia's track as it moves into Canadian
waters.  Greatest threat for large waves is over Laurentian Fan and
Grand Banks where wave heights of 10 metres or more are possible.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.
- strength and predicted wind radii table.
- hurricane track information map.
- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY