Remembrance Day Storm Update Three

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
500 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

...SEAN MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...
....AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE SEAN
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY. 

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102035
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
500 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE APPEARING
TO WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SEAN FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 63 KT...SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF 52 KT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 983 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
55 KT. THE CHANCES OF SEAN BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING DUE TO THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE. SINCE THE MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. BY
TOMORROW...WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND THIS IS ALREADY BEING HERALDED
BY THE ERODING CIRRUS OVERFLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

SEAN IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING AT ABOUT
11 KT...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY IT MIGHT BE WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
OF THAT ESTIMATE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AS SEAN PASSES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS BE NUDGED IN
THAT DIRECTION. IN A DAY OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE SEAN AND ABSORB THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW SEAN DISSIPATED AS EARLY AS 24 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  69.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 32.5N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 36.1N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Pictou County
3:49 PM AST Thursday 10 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Pictou County continued

Rainfall amounts of up to 90 millimetres by Friday evening.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system near St James bay will move to lie over Northern Quebec by Friday morning. A trough extending from the low will approach the Maritimes tonight. As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which will be in its dissipating stage well south of Nova Scotia. Rainfall is expected to begin later this evening in the southwest and continue through Friday. Rainfall amounts up to 90 millimetres are currently forecast for mainland Nova Scotia with locally higher amounts possible along parts of the Atlantic coast. Cape Breton is forecast to receive up to 60 millimetres of rain by Saturday morning. Southeast winds from this system are expected to reach gusts of up to 80 km/h over most areas. Les Suetes winds up to 120 km/h are forecast for Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence of Cape Breton in Lee of the Highlands.

Additionally..Higher than normal water levels and rough surf are expected along the eastern shore of Nova Scotia and Atlantic coast of Cape Breton Friday evening.
Gros Morne
3:44 PM NST Thursday 10 November 2011
Wind warning for
Gros Morne issued

Southeasterly wind gusts of 100 km/h are expected along the coast Friday evening.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A trough of low pressure extending from an intense low pressure system near Hudson Bay will affect Newfoundland on Friday. Strong southeasterly winds gusting to 90 km/h will develop in the Wreckhouse overnight and will increase to 160 km/h by Friday evening. Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h are also expected to develop along exposed areas of the west coast Friday evening.

As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which is tracking well south of Nova Scotia. Heavy rain is expected to begin in Southwestern Newfoundland Friday morning with rainfall accumulations of up to 60 millimetres by Saturday morning.

Fredericton and Southern York County
3:33 PM AST Thursday 10 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Fredericton and Southern York County issued

Near 50 millimetres of rain expected tonight and Friday.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A strong cold front will approach from the west tonight and track across New Brunswick on Friday and Friday evening. Tropical moisture well to the north of tropical storm Sean will be drawn into this front giving significant amounts of rain to most of New Brunswick tonight and Friday.

Very mild air ahead of the cold front will be replaced with much colder air behind it. Much of Central and Northern New Brunswick will likely see some snow flurry activity overnight Friday night as a result.
WOCN31 CWHX 101845
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:09 PM AST Thursday
10 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For tropical storm Sean.

      This is the final planned statement by the Canadian hurricane
      Centre on this storm.

      Tropical storm Sean expected to merge with strong cold front
      Well south of Nova Scotia - no direct affects expected.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
It still appears that Sean will become absorbed by a strong cold
front moving off the U.S. eastern seaboard.  The front will tap into
some extra moisture from the storm that could enhance rainfalls over
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  However, the wind circulation of Sean
is expected to become fully absorbed into the southerly winds
associated with the front.  A tighter wind/pressure gradient may
cross the Grand Banks off Newfoundland late Friday or early Saturday
related to the remnant of Sean, but most of the wind will be from the
front.  We do not intend to issue any additional bulletins from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre unless there is a dramatic change.

Special weather statements and warnings can be found at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/warnings and storm track information (from the
Miami hurricane centre) at weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in
lower case).

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTYFredericton and Southern York County