Here comes Hurricane Sandy, the Frankenstorm! Part IV

WOCN11 CWHX 290733
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 4:33 AM
ADT Monday 29 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Lunenburg County
=new= Digby County
      Queens County
      Shelburne County
      Yarmouth County.

      Large waves and pounding surf associated with hurricane Sandy
      may affect the south shore of Nova Scotia tonight.
      Significant rainfall associated with a frontal system possible
      Tuesday night.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
At 3.00 AM ADT hurricane Sandy was located at 35.2 north 70.5 west
about 460 kilometres east of Cape Hatteras.  Hurricane Sandy is
currently moving northward well east of Cape Hatteras.  Sandy will
gradually transition into a large and intense post-tropical cyclone
today as it turns toward the northwest.  Based on the current
forecast Sandy is expected to move inland somewhere along the New
Jersey coast tonight.

There will be a risk for large waves along the Atlantic coast of Nova
Scotia especially along the south shore beginning tonight.
These large waves could produce pounding surf conditions and the
possibility of locally elevated water levels.

Additionally, a developing frontal system not directly associated
with Sandy is expected to bring periods of rain to the Maritimes
beginning Tuesday.  The rain is expected to intensify Tuesday night
over Southwestern Nova Scotia and total amounts could exceed 50
millimetres by Wednesday morning.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
WOCN14 CWHX 290741
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 4:41 AM ADT
Monday 29 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Fredericton and Southern York County
=new= Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
=new= St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
=new= Woodstock and Carleton County.

      Rainfall exceeding 50 millimetres possible Tuesday into
      Wednesday.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy is forecast to gradually transition into a large and
intense post-tropical cyclone as it heads toward the New Jersey
coast.  Rain is not expected to reach the southwestern Maritimes
until early Tuesday but could persist into Wednesday from a
developing frontal system not directly associated with Sandy.
Amounts could be significant and could exceed 50 millimetres through
Wednesday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032-300145-
/O.CON.KCAR.WI.Y.0011.121029T1800Z-121030T1200Z/
NORTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT...
BAXTER ST PARK...CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...CHURCHILL DAM...
MOUNT KATAHDIN...MILLINOCKET...EAST MILLINOCKET...PATTEN...
MEDWAY...HOULTON...HODGDON...SHERMAN...SMYRNA MILLS...
GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...
SPRINGFIELD...DOVER-FOXCROFT...MILO...GUILFORD...DANFORTH...
VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
936 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
  THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
  LINES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME POWER OUTAGES AND LOSS OF
  SERVICES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. BE CAUTIOUS IF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLE. IN CASE OF POWER OUTAGES...MAKE SURE FLASHLIGHTS HAVE
WORKING BATTERIES.

&&

$$

HASTINGS


000 WTNT43 KNHC 291443 TCDAT3 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT. RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT 330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN. SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND 27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL. SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 37.5N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 39.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z 40.4N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 41.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z 44.5N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 45.9N 72.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 47.5N 68.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART

000
FXUS61 KCAR 291658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1258 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY TONIGHT. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION WITH SOME RAIN AND BRISK
WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

1252 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES AS FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. A COUPLE OF THINGS OF NOTE. ONE, WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER, WE STILL EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AND ITS WIND FIELD INCREASES. ALSO, INTERESTING SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE REGION AS WE`RE SEEING A PATCH OF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DOWNWIND OF MOUNT KATAHDIN OWING TO DOWNSLOPING. HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO WINDS, WX, AND SKY COVER FOR THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING ON A TRACK TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE BAROCLINIC PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENERGY TO THE SYSTEM...SO VERY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OR EVEN DEEPEN FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS....ESPECIALLY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER WARMER GULF STREAM WATER. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN LABRADOR MAINTAINING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BEST MIXING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. OVER CENTRAL AREAS NOT ENOUGH MIXING TO GET WARNING WINDS TO SURFACE SO WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND ADVISORY ACROSS HIGH WIND WATCH AREA. FOR WINDS WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH NAM12 AND USE 200 PERCENT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FOR GUSTS. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 ...SREF AND ECMWF. HAVE USED SAME MODELS FOR QPF EXCEPT CHANGED NAM12 FOR NAM80. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS GENERATED FROM NAM12.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONCERNS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WIND AND COASTAL THREAT TO A FLOOD THREAT THIS TERM. POST TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN. THE WIND THREAT WILL COME TO END AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST LLVL JET(925-850MBS) WILL LET UP AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER WEAKENS AS WELL. SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR SO CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY ON. HOWEVER, AN ESE FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE STORM WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLC OCEAN W/EMBEDDED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. STRONG FORCING MID LEVEL FORCING COUPLED W/STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT W/1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AS THE LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50+ AND SWEAT INDICES OF 300+ ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS SETUP. THE FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD. IT LOOKS LIKE CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS AND STANDING WATER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. STEADIER RAINFALL W/PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS SANDY LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN NYS AND A SSE FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. THE LATEST ECWMF ALONG W/THE CANADIAN DEPICT THIS WELL AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THE SETUP. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS40 ARE IN LINE AS WELL ALTHOUGH, THESE MODELS DRY THINGS OUT QUICKER. DECIDED TO BACK AWAY FROM THIS AND STAY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL W/THE AREAL COVERAGE. THIS MEANS THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL 90+% INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS WET! RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS INTO CANADA. BASED ON WHAT WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC AND NERFC 6HR QPF W/AREAL ADJUSTMENTS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND JUST TWEAKED WEDNESDAY QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS SITUATION. TEMPERATURES IN WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE W/DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS STATED ABOVE, RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO A SHOWER REGIME FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SANDY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CWA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD SSW FLOW. A CHANGE WILL COMING OUR WAY BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. GMOS WAS LOADED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BLENDING IN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL ESPECIALLY W/THE DAYTIME HIGHS TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOL SIDE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE MOS MIN TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS THE CWA STAYS IN A CYCLONIC FLOW. UNSETTLED AS WELL DURING THE DAY AS CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB LATER WEDNESDAY W/MVFR WHILE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL STAY IN IFR. IMPROVEMENTS TO POSSIBLE VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB ON THURSDAY WHILE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WIND GRIDS. WILL INCREASE WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. FOR WAVES: HURRICANE SANDY WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR EVEN INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY ENTERS SYSTEM DURING TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALSO THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARMER GULF STREAM AND SHEAR IS DECREASING. AS THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TAKES PLACE THE SYSTEM IS INCREASING ITS SIZE WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY. AS IT DOES SO PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EAST AND NORTH OF CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH PRODUCING VERY LARGE WAVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY THE LARGEST WAVE WITH PERIODS OF 15 SECONDS OR GREATER ARE SHOALING AS THEY CROSS GEORGES BANK. SWAN MODEL CLEARLY SHOWS THIS ALTHOUGH A SMALL TONGUE OF HIGHER WAVES DOES MOVE THROUGH GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. AFTER TRANSMISSION OF WAVE ENERGY ACROSS GEORGES BANK CONDITIONS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...WIND DIRECTION IS AROUND 90 DEGREES OFF WAVE DIRECTION AND 15+ SECOND PERIOD WAVES OUTRUN WAVE PHASE SPEED. HAVE USED THE NAM/SWAN FOR WAVE GRIDS. SPECTRAL GROUPS INCLUDE NORTHEAST LOCAL WAVE GROUP COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE FIELD. SHORT TERM: LOOKING FOR SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THINGS BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS40 AND NAM12 FOR WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE FOLLOWED GFS/GMOS BLEND FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SWAN GUIDANCE DOING WELL W/SEAS ATTM ALTHOUGH A TAD HIGH, BUT W/IN RANGE. KEPT WAVE HEIGHTS FROM PREVIOUS FCST PRETTY MUCH IN TACT. && .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLE W/THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3+ INCHES W/THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THIS IS A BASIN AVERAGE AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE MORE ESPECIALLY UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE MT. KATAHDIN AND MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGIONS W/THE ESE FLOW. TSTMS THAT COULD OCCUR WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AS WELL. ATTM, ANY FLOODING APPEARS TO BE OF NUISANCE TYPE W/CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS AS WELL AS STANDING WATER. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NERFC SHOWS THE MAIN STEM RIVERS SEEING SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT THESE LARGER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS LATEST DOSE OF RAINFALL. SOME SMALLER STREAMS SUCH AS THE WESLEY GRAND LEAK STREAM WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES AND SOME COULD EVEN REACH BANKFULL. THE PENOBSCOT RIVERS AT BANGOR AND WEST ENFIELD AND THE CHERRYFIELD AND MACHIAS RIVERS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY COULD SEE SOME FLUCTUATION W/THE TIDE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL PUT NO MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. THE DAYCREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LATEST EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE INDICATES AROUND 1 FOOT STORM SURGE. THIS WOULD KEEP STORM TIDE BELOW 13 FEET. WITH FORECAST WIND SPEED SURGE MAY BE CLOSER TO TWO FEET...EVEN WITH WIND DIRECTION PARALLEL TO COAST WATER WILL PILE UP DUE TO EKMAN EFFECT. EVEN SO WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET TO MINIMUM FLOOD LEVELS WITH BAR HARBOR MAXIMUM TIDE BELOW 14 FEET...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ONSHORE FLOW TO SUPPLEMENT TIDE AT HEAD OF CONVERGENT BAYS SUCH AS MACHIAS AND PENOBSCOT BAYS. SUSPECT GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE LARGE WAVES RESULTING IN RUNUP AND EROSION ALONG AREAS EXPOSED TO OPEN OCEAN. MAY BE OVERWASH IN PLACES LIKE SCHOODIC POINT...ARCADIA....SEAWALL ROAD AND DEER ISLE CAUSEWAY. WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

-- Changed Discussion --

ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010-011- 031-032. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029- 030. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT HYDROLOGY...WFO CAR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO CAR