Extratropical Storm Arthur (storm force) Update Nine

FXCN31 CWHX 051800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.03 PM ADT 
SATURDAY 05 JULY 2014.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT, POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
45.9 N AND LONGITUDE 65.1 W, ABOUT 23 NAUTICAL MILES OR 43 KM 
SOUTHWEST OF MONCTON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS (93 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 979 MB. ARTHUR IS MOVING 
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS (30 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUL 05  3.00 PM  45.9N  65.1W   979   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 05  9.00 PM  46.4N  63.3W   980   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 06  3.00 AM  47.3N  61.6W   985   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 06  9.00 AM  48.2N  59.7W   985   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 06  3.00 PM  49.5N  57.5W   985   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 06  9.00 PM  50.8N  55.5W   995   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  3.00 AM  52.8N  54.2W   988   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  9.00 AM  54.6N  53.1W   988   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  3.00 PM  56.4N  52.0W   988   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 07  9.00 PM  58.3N  50.7W   990   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 08  3.00 AM  60.3N  49.6W   992   35   65 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

POST TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MADE YET ANOTHER LANDFALL THIS AFTERNOON 
NEAR FUNDY NATIONAL PARK. THE CENTER OF THE STILL VERY INTENSE STORM 
IS SOUTHWEST OF MONCON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE COLD CLOUD 
TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND CLDN DATA ALSO SHOWS A 
CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING IN THAT REGION. THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE 
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
BAROCLINIC BAND WHICH EXTENDS FROM LABRADOR TO MAINE. RADAR IMAGERY 
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN EMBEDED IN THE BAND ESPECIALLY OVER 
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK. NOVA SCOTIA IS EXPERIENCING THE STRONGEST 
WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 60 KNOT RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY LAND 
AND MARINE STATIONS IN THE SOUTHERLY CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE STORM. 
ALSO A STING JET HAS DEVELOPED ON THE REAR FLANK OF THE STORM 
RESULTING IN WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 55 TO 69 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE FORWARD SPEED OF ARTHUR HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS 
AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS.  THE STORM WILL TRACK 
EASTWARD TO NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
AS A STRONG POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY 
BEFORE EXITING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC 
SYSTEM. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND IT LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE
GFS AND RDPS GUIDANCE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
05/18Z  140 185 150  80    15 155  75  15     0   0   0   0
06/00Z  150 195 155  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  160 205 160 100     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/12Z  165 215 160  95     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  170 230 160  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/00Z  190 235 160  70     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  205 235 160  45     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/12Z  230 260 160  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/18Z  250 265 160  15     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/00Z  250 250 160  10     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  270 255 160   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


END/COUTURIER