Hurricane Dorian (Category Two) heads our way Update One

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060253
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface
data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a
little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from
Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as
the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is
now estimated to be 85 kt.

Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is
anticipated.  As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical
transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72
hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds
while moving near or over Nova Scotia.

The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already
embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving
mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on
a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance
continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and
the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The
current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic
states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should
already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surges, and flooding rains.  It also appears that Dorian will affect
portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian's core, life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the
southern Chesapeake Bay.  Water levels could rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is
expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 33.8N  77.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 35.0N  75.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 37.2N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 40.2N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 44.5N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 52.5N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 57.5N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

FXCN31 CWHX 060000
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.57 PM ADT
Thursday 05 September 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 33.6 N and
longitude 77.9 W, about 43 nautical miles or 79 km south of
Wilmington. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 90 knots (167
km/h) and central pressure at 960 MB. Dorian is moving northeast at
11 knots (20 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 05  9.00 PM  33.6N  77.9W   960   90  167
Sep 06  9.00 AM  35.3N  75.5W   965   90  167
Sep 06  9.00 PM  37.5N  72.1W   967   85  157
Sep 07  9.00 AM  40.4N  68.1W   965   80  148
Sep 07  9.00 PM  43.9N  63.7W   960   80  148
Sep 08  9.00 AM  48.3N  59.8W   960   70  130 post-tropical
Sep 08  9.00 PM  51.9N  55.2W   963   60  111 post-tropical
Sep 09  9.00 AM  54.5N  48.7W   971   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 09  9.00 PM  56.1N  43.0W   979   45   83 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

The eye of hurricane Dorian remains just offshore of the South
Carolina coast. The large eye seen earlier in the day on satellite
has now become a bit smaller and more ragged. Cloud tops have also
warmed over the last hour. The latest hurricane aircraft
reconnasainces have also been showing a slow decrease in intensity
over the last few hours. Therefore, the initial intensity has dropped
slightly to 90 knots with a slight increase in speed to the northeast
at 11 knots.

B. Prognostic

Hurricane Dorian's forward motion is now predominantly northeast as
it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The current forecast track
may graze the North Carolina coast tonight before passing near Cape
Hatteras on Friday morning. Some weakening is expected as Dorian then
accelerates towards Canadian offshore waters Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Exactly when Dorian will undergo extra-tropical transition
remains uncertain, but the current forecast maintains a land-falling
hurricane somewhere over Eastern Nova Scotia overnight Saturday and
should complete transition over the Eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence or
Western Newfoundland Sunday morning. Regarless, Dorian will remain a
very potent post-tropical system with hurricane or near hurricane
force winds as it crosses Newfoundland.

Global models are suggesting large amounts of rain north of the track
with most models now suggesting widespread 50 to 100 mm for Nova
Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Southeastern New Brunswick and the Gulf
of St. Lawrence including parts of North Shore Quebec.There could be
a swath in excess of 150 mm just north and west of dorain's track as
it approaches Nova Scotia.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
06/00Z  225 220 135 130    90  90  70  75    60  50  45  50
06/12Z  240 245 165 135    95  95  75  80    60  50  45  50
07/00Z  245 260 190 145   100 110  80  80    55  55  50  55
07/12Z  255 275 200 160   110 145  95  85    60  65  55  55
08/00Z  270 280 210 180   110 175 100  90    65  70  55  45
08/12Z  265 275 220 195    95 145  90  90    55  50  30  45
09/00Z  240 265 225 195    75 100  70  80     0   0   0   0
09/12Z  210 255 225 190    60  90  50  65     0   0   0   0
10/00Z  210 255 260 190     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MCARTHUR/MERCER/COUTURIER

8:55 PM ADT Thursday 05 September 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula
Fredericton and Southern York County
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Miramichi and area
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle
Eagle River
Newfoundland
Norman Bay to Lodge Bay
Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti
Blanc-Sablon
Chevery
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
For Hurricane Dorian.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to severely impact parts of the Atlantic provinces this weekend.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 33.6 North 77.9 West.

About: 79 kilometres east of Wilmington.

Maximum sustained winds: 167 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: northeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 960 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical storm or hurricane watches will be issued early Friday. Based on the latest forecast guidance, the most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, pushing through eastern Nova Scotia Saturday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters or western Newfoundland by Sunday morning.

Severe winds and rainfall will have major impacts for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland, and the Quebec Lower North Shore. There will also be large waves, especially for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, storm surge, combined with large waves and pounding surf, may have impacts for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, and the Magdalen Islands.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience some tropical storm force winds, beginning over southwestern Nova Scotia by early Saturday afternoon and towards the evening over eastern Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland. Near and to the south of the forecast track, winds should reach hurricane force. Gusts up to 120 km/h are likely along parts of Nova Scotia, the southwestern coast of Newfoundland, and the Quebec Lower North Shore. As the storm moves across Nova Scotia, there is a possibility of hurricane force northwesterlies behind it. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, causing broken branches and tree falls, resulting in power outages, blocking of roads, and damage to buildings.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be a major factor and heavy rainfall will likely lead to flooding. The highest rainfall amounts are likely for Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region where 50 to 100 mm is expected. Forecast guidance is also suggesting a swath in excess of 150 mm north and west of Dorian's track. Some districts have received large quantities of rain from Post-tropical Storm Erin last week, and with the soil moisture still very high from Erin, excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential. This combined with the previously mentioned severe winds may result in damage from falling trees.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be some rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Large waves will reach the Southwestern Shore of Nova Scotia on Saturday and build to near 10 metres over the Eastern Shore Saturday night. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Sunday morning. Waves near or higher than 5 metres will impact north facing coasts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Note that waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Please exercise extreme caution.

Storm surge is possible, mainly for eastern Nova Scotia and the Southwest Shore, the north coast of Prince Edward Island, southwestern Newfoundland, and the Magdalen Islands. Current guidance suggests near warning levels at this time. However, when combined with rough and pounding surf, there may be flooding and overwash of waves. On Friday warnings may be issued.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

As Hurricane Dorian moves into our waters, there is a good chance of hurricane force southeasterlies near and south of the track, mainly over southern Atlantic forecast waters. As the storm moves into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will likely develop behind it. Waves in of 10 to 15 metres are likely south of the storm track, beginning late Saturday over southwestern waters and approaching southern Newfoundland Sunday morning. As the low continues east late Sunday into Monday, waves of 4 to 7 metres will develop over Funk and Belle Isle Banks and the South Labrador coast, with 3 to 5 metres expected over the Grand Banks.

Forecasters: McArthur, Mercer, Couturier