Monstrous Hurricane Teddy (Category Two)

000

WTNT35 KNHC 221744

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 41A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

200 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...EXTREMELY LARGE TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND

STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...40.3N 64.1W

ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia

* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia

* Magdalen Islands Quebec

* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the

progress of Teddy.  Additional watches and/or warnings could be

required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located

near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 64.1 West. Teddy is moving

toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward

the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday.  On the forecast

track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,

and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east

of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday,

Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near

and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Satellite-derived winds and

a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that hurricane-force

winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km).

Buoy 44150, located about 150 n mi north of the center, recently

reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches)

based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce

significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the

center makes landfall in Nova Scotia.  Near the coast, the surge

will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the

Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast

of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the

warning area soon.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the

watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall

accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals

of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Blake