Major Hurricane Teddy (Category Three) Churns In The Atlantic - Update One

000

WTNT35 KNHC 200253

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  31

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC

COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.3N 61.2W

ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located

near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Teddy is moving

toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion

is expected to continue into Sunday.  A turn toward the north is 

expected by Sunday night followed by a faster northward motion early 

next week.  On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on 

Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island 

Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate 

that maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 

gusts.  Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 

Hurricane Wind Scale.  A weakening trend is expected to begin Sunday 

night.  

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward 

up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 

winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).  Teddy's wind field 

is likely to become even larger over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda

beginning Sunday night and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser

Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east

coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic

Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-

threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT45 KNHC 200254

TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  31

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Some convective cells have been developing within Teddy's large 

outer eye, and it is possible that this convection is forming an 

inner eyewall.  In any event, observations from an Air Force 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have 

decreased slightly, to near 100 kt.  The hurricane is expected to 

remain in a low shear environment until tomorrow evening, and to 

more or less maintain its intensity for 12-24 hours.  Thereafter, 

increasing shear associated with an upper-level trough to the west 

should cause weakening.  Although the shear is predicted by the 

global models to become fairly strong after 48 hours, the system 

has a a very large and intense circulation so only slow weakening 

is expected.  By 72 hours, Teddy should merge with a frontal zone to 

the east of New England and become a strong extratropical cyclone.  

The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.

The system's wind field will likely become even larger as the wind 

field of Teddy interacts within a high pressure system behind a cold 

front during the next few days. This could prolong the period of 

strong winds over Bermuda into Monday night.

Teddy continues on a general northwestward track or about 315/11 kt. 

The hurricane should move on the western side of a subtropical high 

pressure area for the next day or so, and then begin to accelerate 

northward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that develops 

into a cutoff low off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days.  

The interaction of Teddy with this low will likely result in a 

slight leftward bend of the track  around days 2-3.  In 4-5 days, 

post-tropical Teddy is likely to turn north-northeastward to 

northeastward in the flow on the east side of a broad 500 mb trough. 

The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected 

dynamical model consensus predictions.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy 

continues to increase.  See the Key Message below regarding swells 

caused by the hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda

late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the

island beginning Sunday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical

cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early

next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from

wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor

the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions

of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,

the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the

next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 27.3N  61.2W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  20/1200Z 28.3N  62.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  21/0000Z 29.6N  63.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  21/1200Z 31.6N  62.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  22/0000Z 35.7N  61.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 60H  22/1200Z 39.7N  62.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  23/0000Z 42.5N  62.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  24/0000Z 49.5N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  25/0000Z 57.0N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

FXUS61 KCAR 200144

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

944 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build over the region through Sunday and

will remain overhead Monday. Hurricane Teddy will pass east of

the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure follows

for Wednesday and Thursday......

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High Impact Weather Potential: Variety of potential impacts

surrounding the approach of Hurricane Teddy. Beyond this, no

additional significant weather impacts are expected.

Pattern: Trough along the east coast will cutoff...first

steering Hurricane Teddy northward...and then nudging it

somewhat west before strengthening westerlies over Canada push

the circulation to the east with strengthening westerlies over

North America for the remainder of the week with flow from the

Pacific dominating across much of the United States favoring

temperatures moving above normal over the northeast.

After another dry and somewhat warmer day Monday under high

pressure, all eyes turn to the progress of Hurricane Teddy which

will make it/s closest approach to the region Tuesday and

Tuesday night. A well offshore solution is well-agreed upon in

the deterministic/ensemble guidance suite with the EC ensemble

just a bit west of the Canadian Ensemble...with the GEFS further

south and east with the closest approach. These differences in

outcomes are important...however with the potential for tropical

storm force winds to reach at least the marine waters. Far less

likely that this scenario would favor winds of this strength

over land...but will continue to monitor the complex interaction

of Teddy with the developing cutoff circulation to it/s west.

This type of scenario is notoriously difficult for numerical

models to handle and thus confidence is only moderate despite

the ensemble agreement.

As far as potential impacts...certainly will see a significant

increase in swell with the potential for minor coastal flooding

/ splashover / beach erosion.  As mentioned by the previous

shift...in locations where rain does not fall, the dry

conditions and increasing northerly winds will favor an

increased fire risk. Certainly not expecting enough rain for a

hydro risk and...as mentioned above the threat from strong

winds, with the greatest potential threat being over coastal

Washington County.

Beyond any impact from Teddy...quiet weather returns for

Wednesday as the flow aloft looks to become increasingly

progressive with temperatures moving above seasonal norms for

the second half of the week with another moisture-starved cold

front arriving by the end of the week with a return to

seasonable temperatures next weekend..............

8:25 PM ADT Saturday 19 September 2020

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Burgeo - Ramea

Burin Peninsula

Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Connaigre

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

For Hurricane Teddy.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 a.m. ADT.

Hurricane Teddy poised to impact Atlantic Canada Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane Teddy will likely reach offshore waters south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday as a hurricane, and will then impact Atlantic Canada and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region as a strong post-tropical storm on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Teddy is currently a category three hurricane over the Tropical Atlantic well southeast of Bermuda. It will slowly move up during the next two days passing east of Bermuda on Monday. This is when it will begin to accelerate towards Nova Scotia. When it reaches Canadian waters south of the Maritimes it will be a category two hurricane, but is expected to be a very dangerous post-tropical storm as it moves though eastern Nova Scotia and southwestern Newfoundland.

Possible impacts:

A. Public

Rainfall could be significant, especially north and west of Teddy's track. At this point, the highest rainfall amounts are likely for eastern Nova Scotia and the south coast of Newfoundland. Most regions will see some tropical storm force winds, and south of the forecast track winds may reach hurricane force. Power outages are are likely due to breaking branches and possible tree falls, especially due to trees still having their full foliage. Every effort should be made to secure temporary structures.

B. Marine

As hurricane Teddy moves into our waters, there is a reasonable chance of hurricane force winds near and south of the track, mainly over the southern Atlantic forecast waters. There will also be large waves, again mainly over southern waters.

C. Surge/Waves

Large waves will build over southern marine waters Tuesday, and will break higher along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and the south coast of Newfoundland where rough and pounding surf is expected. Storm surge is possible, mainly for parts of the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands and the south coast of Newfoundland, but it is too early to be specific about which portions of the coastline may be affected.

Forecaster(s): Couturier/Mercer.

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Gray ME

655 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

MEZ023-NHZ014-201000-

/O.CON.KGYX.CF.S.0012.200920T1700Z-200920T1900Z/

Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham-

655 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

* WHAT...Some splash-over is possible. Minor flooding is

  possible along the Backbay area of Hampton.

* WHERE...In New Hampshire, Coastal Rockingham County. In Maine,

  Coastal York County.

* WHEN...Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Some beach erosion water on low lying roads and

  property possible from breaking waves. Minor flooding is

  possible in the Backbay area of Hampton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Hampton Harbor NH

MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.0 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 19/02 PM    10.1        0.6        0.2       3-4      None

 20/02 AM    10.2        0.7        0.1        3       None

 20/02 PM    10.4        0.9        0.1        4       None

 21/03 AM     9.9        0.4        0.2        4       None

 21/03 PM    10.4        0.9        0.3        5       None

 22/04 AM     9.5       -0.0        0.3       5-6      None

Seavey Island / Portsmouth NH

MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 12.5 ft, Major 13.5 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 2.7 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 19/02 PM    10.3        1.5        0.2        3       None

 20/02 AM    10.5        1.7        0.0        3       None

 20/02 PM    10.8        2.0        0.1        4       None

 21/02 AM    10.2        1.4        0.2        4       None

 21/03 PM    10.9        2.1        0.3        5       None

 22/03 AM     9.8        1.0        0.3        5       None

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME

203 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032-201815-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

203 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT

SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot

Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the

Internet for more information about the following hazards.

Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the

Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

As Hurricane Teddy makes its closest approach to the region on

Tuesday and Tuesday night...there is the potential for strengthening

northerly winds...building seas...and even rainfall for portions of

downeast Maine. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the

National Hurricane Center for the latest details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$