Hurricane Teddy (Category Two) Targets The Region

000

WTNT35 KNHC 220247

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER...

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC

BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...35.6N 61.5W

ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

10:24 PM ADT Monday 21 September 2020

Storm surge warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

High Storm Surge levels and very large waves are expected to impact the coast.

Maximum water levels: storm surge of 50 cm except higher in areas where large wave break on shore

Maximum wave heights: 7 to 9 metres, breaking higher along parts of the coast.

Locations: From Yarmouth County east to Guysborough.

Time span: For the Eastern Shore, near the high tides Tuesday evening and wednesday morning. For the Southwest Shore near high tides on tuesday morning and Tuesday evening.

Remarks: The main risk is for very large waves, rough and pounding surf and a threat for rip currents. On Tuesday morning 3-4 metre waves at the coast will build to 7-9 metres late in the day, with waves breaking higher along parts of the coast. The high waves will persist into the overnight period. Outside of the times for high tide there is still a threat for very large waves, rough and pounding surf, and local overwash. The public should observe extreme caution.

High waves combined with the surge may cause damage along the coast. Coastal erosion is likely in vulnerable areas. Coastal flooding is possible along the shoreline.

Storm surge warnings are issued when water levels pose a threat to coastal regions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

 10:15 PM ADT Monday 21 September 2020

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall amount: 50 to 75 mm, possibly reaching 100 mm in areas of heaviest rain.

Locations: Lunenburg, Halifax, and Guysborough Counties

Time span: beginning late Tuesday morning and continuing into Wednesday.

Remarks: The initial rain bands ahead of Hurricane Teddy will reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia late Tuesday morning. Rain will be heavy at times through the afternoon and then diminish somewhat in the evening. A second burst of heavier rain is expected just ahead of Teddy as it approaches the coast overnight on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Total amounts may exceed 50 mm by 6 a.m. Wednesday, with total rainfall possibly reaching 100 mm in areas of heaviest rain by Wednesday night. This warning is likely to be expanded with future updates.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

 10:14 PM ADT Monday 21 September 2020

Wind warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: northeasterly 90 to 100 km/h along parts of the coast.

Locations: Along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia from Digby County to Victoria County

Time span: Tuesday afternoon until late Tuesday evening.

Remarks: Winds will strengthen over the coast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday as Teddy approaches from the south. Winds will reach warning criteria over the Atlantic and lower Fundy coasts of mainland Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon, and over eastern Cape Breton on Tuesday evening.

Late Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours, winds will shift to southeasterly and diminish somewhat over eastern Nova Scotia before strengthening again overnight and Wednesday morning as Teddy crosses the province. Winds will remain near warning criteria over western mainland Nova Scotia through the night as they shift to northwesterly.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

 3:58 PM ADT Monday 21 September 2020

Tropical storm warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Tropical storm force winds of 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Teddy can be expected over the above regions.

Tropical storm force winds ahead of Hurricane Teddy expected to begin affecting parts of Nova Scotia late on Tuesday, accompanied by rain at times heavy in the afternoon and evening.

Potential wind gusts: 65 to 100 km/h over exposed areas and along parts of the coast.

Locations: Coastal regions of mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton

Time span: From noon Tuesday into Late Wednesday.

Remarks: Tropical storm force northeasterly winds will develop across much of Nova Scotia ahead of Hurricane Teddy on Tuesday. Winds are expected to gust to 80 to 100 km/h over exposed areas and along parts of the coast Tuesday afternoon and evening. Another period of strong winds is possible Wednesday morning overeasternmost sections of Nova Scotia as Teddy makes its closest approach to the province.

These winds could break tree branches potentially resulting in downed utility lines. Stay away from the shore - the combination of surge and large waves could result in dangerous rip currents and the risk of being pulled out to sea.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are expected over parts of the region within 24 hours.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

2:56 PM ADT Monday 21 September 2020

Tropical storm watch in effect for:

Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

2:53 PM ADT Monday 21 September 2020

Tropical storm watch in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Tropical storm force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Post-tropical Storm Teddy may occur over the above regions.

Tropical storm force winds ahead of Hurricane Teddy expected to begin affecting parts of Nova Scotia late on Tuesday, accompanied by rain at times heavy in the afternoon and evening.

Potential wind gusts: 65 to 100 km/h over exposed areas and along parts of the coast.

Locations: Iles de la Madeleine and Prince Edward Island

Time span: Late on Tuesday into Wednesday Evening.

Remarks: Gale force easterly winds will develop late on Tuesday as Teddy passes south of Nova Scotia. Again on Wednesday Gale force northwesterlies will develop Wednesday afternoon.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Meat Cove to Tidnish

* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence

* Magdalen Islands

* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the

progress of Teddy.  Additional watches and/or warnings could be

required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located

near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West.  Teddy is moving

toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected

overnight followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. 

 Teddy should turn toward the north-northeast and move over eastern 

Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late 

Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Teddy could gain a little more strength 

overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a 

strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275

miles (445 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported 

a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in

the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions

could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the

Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast

of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to 

produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with 

isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic 

Canada.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce

significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the

center makes landfall in Nova Scotia.  Near the coast, the surge

will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Roberts

377 

WTNT45 KNHC 220248

TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little stronger

this evening.  Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the east

quadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt.  A blend of 

these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory.

Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- to

upper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from the

northwest.  Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementioned

baroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the Gulf

Stream could induce a short period of strengthening during the

next few hours, or so.  Through the remaining portion of the

forecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperatures

north of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing a

gradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly moves

over eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.

After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger 

non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system.  There still 

remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete 

its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia.  The 

global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic 

zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows 

Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core.  Regardless of 

it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm 

surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast 

of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double during

the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with

the aforementioned baroclinic system.  Gale-force winds are likely

along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast United

States.  The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyond

are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a

bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

Please see products from your local office for more

information about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous rip

currents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical

cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada

late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,

and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and

Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect

portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the

Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada

during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy 

between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical 

cyclone. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 35.6N  61.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 38.4N  62.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 41.1N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  23/1200Z 44.6N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  24/0000Z 49.0N  58.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  24/1200Z 52.8N  54.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  25/0000Z 58.1N  51.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

8:42 PM ADT Monday 21 September 2020

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Burgeo - Ramea

Burin Peninsula

Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Connaigre

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

For Hurricane Teddy.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 a.m. ADT.

Hurricane Teddy will spread tropical storm force winds to parts of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Thereafter Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful Post-Tropical Storm as it brings heavy rain, strong winds and heavy pounding surf to much of the Maritimes and southern Newfoundland. The center of Post-tropical Storm Teddy is expected to make landfall along the eastern shore of Nova Scotia late Wednesday morning

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: near 34.6 North 61.2 West.

About 395 kilometres northeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 150 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North at 37 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 958 millibars.

Teddy is currently a category one hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean northeast of Bermuda. It will move northward tonight and enter the Canadian response zone on Tuesday. Thereafter Teddy is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical storm. On Wednesday post-tropical Teddy will turn northeastward and head toward eastern Nova Scotia and then southwestern Newfoundland.

2. Public impacts and warnings summary:

a. Wind.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia for Tuesday where wind gusts of 80 to 100 km/h are possible. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the remainder of Nova Scotia, as well as Prince Edward Island, Iles de la Madeleine, and southwestern Newfoundland where winds gusting 70 to 90 km/h are possible. Given trees are still in full leaf, these winds could cause limbs to break with some tree falls, likely leading to many power outages.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect in Nova Scotia from Lunenburg to Guysborough county. These warnings will likely be expanded to additional regions on Tuesday. Rain ahead of Teddy will likely reach Nova Scotia by early Tuesday afternoon and will continue in many areas into Wednesday. The highest rainfall amounts are likely to be just north and west of Teddy's eventual track through the region, which for now would encompass most of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, the eastern half of Prince Edward Island, and parts of southwestern Newfoundland. Rainfall amounts in these areas could exceed 50 mm, with isolated areas possibly reaching 75 to 100 mm.

c. Surge/Waves.

Storm surge warnings are in effect along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia from Yarmouth County through to Guysborough County. Large swells will gradually build south of the region tonight and Tuesday, with the highest waves expected to reach the Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Waves of up to 8 to 10 metres are expected, and will break higher along parts of the coast. For southern Newfoundland, the largest waves, in the 6 to 8 metres range, are expected to reach southern coastlines on Wednesday. Note that the waves will break higher along parts of the coast.

Elevated water levels will develop, mainly for parts of the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday and for southwestern Newfoundland on Wednesday. There is also a chance for Prince Edward Island and Iles de la Madeleine later Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The highest risk is the combination of the very large waves combining with the storm surge to cause dangerous conditions along the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Rough and pounding surf, localised flooding and coastal infrastructure damage and erosion are likely in vulnerable areas, even outside of the times of high tide.

3. Marine impacts and warning summary:

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for Georges Bank and the Scotian slope, with storm warnings for most remaining waters south of Nova Scotia. Gale warnings are in effect for southern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters as well as the southwestern Grand Banks. Teddy will also bring extremely high significant wave heights of up to 15 metres to extreme offshore Maritimes waters by late Tuesday. High water level warnings are in effect from Yarmouth County to Guysborough County.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Couturier/Borgel

$$

Forecaster Roberts

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Caribou ME

905 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

MEZ029-030-220915-

/O.CON.KCAR.CF.A.0002.200922T1200Z-200923T1200Z/

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

905 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding and overtopping are expected

  around the time of high tide, especially Tuesday afternoon

  around 3:20 pm and Wednesday morning around 4 am. Large

  breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet are expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Numerous roads along the immediate coast may be

  closed due to overtopping. Some shoreline erosion may occur.

  High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will make for

  hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a danger to

  people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock outcrops

  along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves can

  easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be

closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of

unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone

property.

&&

$$

CB

000

FXUS61 KCAR 220108

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

908 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Hurricane Teddy will pass east of the area Tuesday into Tuesday

night. Weak high pressure slides back into the area on

Wednesday into Thursday. A weak cold front will cross the area

Thursday night. High pressure returns Friday into next weekend.

&&

..........Previous discussion:

Sfc ridge axis leading to sunny skies over the FA this afternoon,

along with light winds and temps warming into the 60s. Meanwhile

Hurricane Teddy continues to head twd the NNE, located approx 170

miles to the east of Bermuda. Outer cloud shield from Teddy is just

now coming into Nova Scotia and is not expected to mv into very far

sern tip of CWA until after 06z tonight. Moclr skies are expected

for most of the area through the bulk of the overnight with min

temps dipping down to around 30F acrs the deeper valleys in the

north with widespread frost expected once again. Rmndr of the region

wl settle into the m/u 30s by morning.

Impacts from Hurricane , or Extratropical, Teddy wl begin to be felt

acrs Washington County and adjacent coastal waters Tuesday morning.

Northeasterly LLJ wl begin to move thru the Bay of Fundy after 09z

and into Downeast by 18z. LLJ wl continue to influence sern zones

beyond end of the period. Cannot rule out a possibly wind advisory

along the coast late Tue afternoon and drg the overnight but wl

allow the mid-shift to take a closer look as models continue to

disagree on extent and strength of low-level jet associated with the

storm.

Rain begins to move in to the Eastport area shortly after 12z,

gradually increasing in areal coverage thru the afternoon hrs. Given

amount of dry air to the north and east there will be a very sharp

gradient in rain acrs the area, with far sern Washington County

seeing between 0.25-0.50" in the afternoon to Danforth in northern

Washington County being lucky to see 0.05 inches. Temps wl be in the

50s acrs this area with temps in the 60s elsewhere acrs the

region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Overall the forecast hasn`t really changed with just some minor

adjustments. Tuesday night Hurricane Teddy will be a few hundred

miles southeast of the Downeast coast. As the storm continues

north towards Nova Scotia it is in transition to a mid

latitude cyclone. The influence of the jet stream & trough will

be stretching the precipitation shield over far eastern zones.

There will be a sharp cutoff in precip as you move north &

west. Slight deviations west/east in the track are possible

which can slightly adjust precipitation totals over far eastern

areas. Best chance of beneficial rain Tuesday night into

Wednesday will be across Eastern Washington county. Along with

the rain we will see gusty northeast winds to 40mph into

Wednesday. Across the rest of the area winds will pick up to

20-30mph area wide. Winds in the 20-40mph range pose the

potential for some power outages. Wednesday into Thursday

temperatures will be above average across the forecast area

thanks to Teddy. A weak front will pass through the area

Thursday night but will be dry. Given the warmer and dry

conditions the biggest concerns from Teddy will be a fire danger

threat outlined below..............