Hurricane Teddy (Category Two) Churns In The Atlantic - Update Two

000

WTNT35 KNHC 210251

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  35

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TEDDY TURNING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES

FOR SEVERAL DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.4N 63.6W

ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the

progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located

near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Teddy is moving

toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a northward 

turn is expected Monday. This general motion should continue 

through Tuesday evening.  Teddy is approaching Bermuda from the 

southeast, and the center should pass east of the island Monday

morning.  Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late 

Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while 

Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system.  

Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, the 

cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane 

Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday 

morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230

miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda

overnight and could continue into Monday night.  Tropical storm

conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the

Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast

of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely

to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to 

produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with 

isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic 

Canada.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Roberts

000

WTNT45 KNHC 210251

TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  35

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

Teddy's satellite presentation has changed little during the 

past several hours albeit some warming of the eye.  The 

53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters recorded a central 

pressure this evening of 963 mb, unchanged from the previous 

mission, and the Dvorak subjective intensity estimates haven't 

changed either.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt 

for this advisory.  

There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could 

strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the 

approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of 

the United States.  In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak 

of 95 kt at the 24 hour period.  By Tuesday afternoon, however, 

increasing southwesterly shear associated with the rapidly 

approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough, from the northwest, 

should induce weakening.  Because Teddy is a very large and strong 

tropical cyclone, only gradual weakening is predicted.  By mid 

period, the large-scale models agree that Teddy will merge with the 

aforementioned trough and associated frontal zone and complete its 

extratropical cyclone transition south of Nova Scotia Tuesday 

evening.  Teddy is still forecast to be a very large and powerful 

extratropical cyclone as it approaches, Nova Scotia at that time.  

Wind, rain, surf and storm surge hazards are expected to spread over 

an extensive portion of Atlantic Canada mid-week.

The forecast wind radii at the 36 hour period and beyond, are based

on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a

bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 5 kt.

The hurricane is likely to turn northward Monday morning and 

continue in this general motion through Wednesday morning.  Around 

the 60 hour period, a turn north-northeastward is forecast ahead of 

yet another mid-latitude pulse moving into eastern Canada. No 

significant adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast and 

it lies in between the surprisingly tightly clustered model 

guidance.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been

reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are

encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on

Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning

overnight and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical

cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada

late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of

direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm

Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy 

rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between 

Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical 

cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of

Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the

east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next

few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 29.4N  63.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  21/1200Z 30.9N  63.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  22/0000Z 34.8N  62.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  22/1200Z 38.5N  63.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  23/0000Z 41.3N  64.2W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  23/1200Z 44.5N  62.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 72H  24/0000Z 48.6N  59.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  25/0000Z 57.4N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

$$

Forecaster Roberts

8:48 PM ADT Sunday 20 September 2020

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

Burgeo - Ramea

Burin Peninsula

Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Connaigre

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

For Hurricane Teddy.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 a.m. ADT.

Hurricane Teddy will approach Nova Scotia early on Tuesday and is expected to transition to a large and intense Post-Tropical Storm as it draws nearer to the province Tuesday night. Teddy will bring heavy 

rain, strong winds and heavy pounding surf to much of the Maritimes and Newfoundland on Tuesday and Wednesday.

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: near 29.4 North 63.4 West.

About 353 kilometres south-southeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 165 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North-northwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 964 millibars.

Teddy is currently a category two hurricane over the Tropical Atlantic southeast of Bermuda. It will move generally northward tonight and Monday, passing east of Bermuda. Teddy is expected to transition 

Monday night and Tuesday into a large and intense post-tropical storm. The storm will move into the Maritimes marine areas south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday then turn northeastward towards Cape 

Breton Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Post-Tropical Storm Teddy is then expected to move across Newfoundland on Wednesday.

2. Public impacts and warnings summary:

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Atlantic coast of Mainland Nova Scotia. These watches will likely be extended to parts of Cape Breton later tonight and may be upgraded to Tropical Storm 

Warnings as the storm draws closer.

a. Wind.

Too early to give specific wind forecasts, but most parts of the Maritimes and southern Newfoundland will see tropical storm force winds gusting in the 70 to 90 km/h range. Exposed areas along the 

Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia where Teddy makes its closest approach could see higher gusts of 90 to 110 km/h or possibly slightly stronger. These winds will likely cause power outages, breaking branches 

and possible tree falls, especially due to trees still having their full foliage.

b. Rainfall.

The highest rainfall amounts are likely to be just north and west of Teddy's eventual track through the region, which for now would encompass most of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, the eastern half 

of Prince Edward Island, and parts of southwestern Newfoundland. Rainfall amounts in these areas could exceed 50 mm, with isolated areas possibly exceeding 75 mm.

c. Surge/Waves.

Very large waves will move into southern forecast waters overnight into Monday and will build along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday, with the highest waves expected late in the day. For 

southern Newfoundland, large waves will build into the coast late on Tuesday into Wednesday, with the largest waves expected on Wednesday. Storm surge is likely, mainly for parts of the Atlantic coast of 

Nova Scotia on Tuesday and for southwestern Newfoundland on Wednesday. There is also a chance for Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands late on Tuesday.

The highest risk is the combination of the very large waves combining with the storm surge to cause dangerous conditions along the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Rough and 

pounding surf, localised flooding and coastal erosion are likely in vulnerable areas.

3. Marine impacts and warning summary:

As Hurricane Teddy moves into our waters, there is a reasonable chance of hurricane force winds near and south of the track, mainly over southern Atlantic Canada forecast waters. Tropical storm force 

winds are likely farther north into the Gulf of St, Lawrence and southern coastal Newfoundland. There will also be large waves, again mainly over southern waters.

Forecaster(s): Hatt/Borgel

000

FXUS61 KCAR 210144

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

944 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build over the region tonight and remain

overhead Monday. Hurricane Teddy will pass east of the area

Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure follows for

Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the region later

Thursday. High pressure will build in for Friday......

........SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The high pressure system centered to the west will be the

controlling factor from Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will remain fairly chilly with clear skies through

the night. Winds will remain variable and light.

The high will then be pushed out by Hurricane Teddy on Tuesday

afternoon. N winds are expected to increase throughout the day,

especially in the Downeast and coastal areas. Temperatures

should remain cool to normal across the entire region. Rain

chances are forecasted to increase, mainly in the far SE and

eastern areas. Hurricane Teddy is expected to track NNE through

Tuesday night, which will cause increased clouds and milder low

temperatures across the entire region. The chance of rain will

remain strictly to the SE and E with high winds and possible

gusts of 35 mph. By Wednesday, Hurricane Teddy should quickly

move off to the NE, causing winds to decrease in the SE and

increase across the rest of the region. Skies should remain

cloudy throughout the day causing temperatures to be above

normal. Chance of rain should also be gone with Teddy.

There is high confidence with the center track of Teddy

remaining to the E of the Gulf of Maine. This track is expected

to just glance our region, possibly causing the most weather

over Washington County and the coastal areas with high winds,

swells, and waves. After collaboration with the NHC, decision

was to hold off on any Tropical headlines. The concern is that

the system could transition to extra-tropical(post tropical)

before it gets near the outer Gulf of Maine waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Strong low pressure will continue to move Northeast across

Labrador/New Foundland Wednesday night. Expect a mainly clear

night as high pressure begins to build in from the west. After

a mainly sunny start Thursday, clouds will begin to increase in

advance of an approaching short wave and cold front from Quebec.

The front will cross the region late Thursday. Once again, very

limited moisture will accompany the front, with the better

dynamics passing to the North of the state. High pressure builds

in Thursday night. Some radiational cooling across the North is

possible, and lowered NBM by just a few degrees, as the arrival

of high cloud from the next system late may cap lows a bit.

Friday will be a dry and somewhat cooler day as high pressure

begins to move east. The high continues to the east of the

Canadian maritimes Friday night and Saturday. High pressure at

the surface and aloft will remain across the region right

through Sunday. This will keep a southwest flow in place with

above normal temperatures expected. In fact, the latest CPC 6

to 10 day outlook favors above normal temperatures across

Northern and Downeast Maine..............

9:47 PM ADT Sunday 20 September 2020

Special weather statement in effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

Hurricane Teddy will approach Nova Scotia early on Tuesday and is expected to transition to a large and intense Post-Tropical Storm as it draws nearer to the province Tuesday night. Teddy will bring heavy 

rain, strong winds and heavy pounding surf to much of the Maritimes and Newfoundland on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A tropical storm watch is now if effect for Atlantic Coastal Regions of Nova Scotia.

Although it is early to talk specific numbers the following are expected impacts from the storm.

Storm surge...

Large waves will build along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday, with the largest waves expected late in the day. Storm surge is likely for parts of the Atlantic Coast Tuesday.

Wind...

Most regions of Nova Scotia will see tropical storm force winds. Exposed areas along the Atlantic Coast are likely to experience strong winds of 100 km/h or higher.

Rainfall...

Rainfall could be significant, especially north and west of the track. At this point, the highest rainfall amounts are likely for central and eastern Nova Scotia.

For more detailed information refer to the tropical cyclone information statement at: https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

2:54 PM ADT Sunday 20 September 2020

Tropical storm watch in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Tropical storm force winds of possible 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Teddy may occur over the above regions.

Hurricane Teddy will approach Atlantic Canada on Tuesday and will track through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Potential wind gusts: 100 km/h or possibly higher over exposed areas along the Atlantic coast.

Locations: Atlantic coastal regions of Nova Scotia.

Time span: Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Remarks: A band of very strong easterly or northeasterly winds, likely gusting to 100 km/h or higher over exposed areas, is expected to develop during the day Tuesday and be strongest Tuesday afternoon 

and evening. Another period of strong winds is also likely Wednesday morning as Teddy as pulls away and moves off to the east.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to 

NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.