Wednesday, July 07, 2021

Elsa Makes Landfall In Florida As A Tropical Storm, It Then Moves Northward






































000
WTNT35 KNHC 080258
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 82.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet
South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet New Jersey, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal
Potomac south of Cobb Island and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter
Beach.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound Georgia has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey.
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, pass near 
the eastern mid-Atlantic states late Thursday and move near or
over the northeastern United States on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some 
re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close 
to the northeastern United States.  Elsa is forecast to become a 
post-tropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), 
mostly southeast of the center near the coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) 
based on nearby surface observations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight, along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday, along the North 
Carolina coast on Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic coast by 
Thursday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the 
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts 
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South 
Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum 
amounts up to 8 inches are likely tonight through Thursday, which 
may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern 
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from 
late tonight through Thursday night are possible, which could lead 
to limited flash and urban flooding.

From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated 
totals up to 5 inches are possible Thursday into Friday. This could 
lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from 
southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
WTNT45 KNHC 080259
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is
maintaining its intensity.  However, these winds aren't close to
the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the 
eastern semicircle of the storm.  The current wind speed is set to 
40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, 
and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at 
least 40 kt.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of 
Elsa's circulation remains over land.  However by late Thursday, 
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number 
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough 
interaction or warm waters.  I'm getting some deja vu in this case 
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same 
models also over-intensifying that storm.  The GFS has been 
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of 
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that 
model's relatively weaker solution.  

The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a
little faster, about 14 kt.  Elsa should move northeastward at an
increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes
embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough.  No significant changes were made to the previous track
forecast since guidance remains in good agreement.  Elsa is likely
to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical 
low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North 
Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive 
tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been 
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas.  Areas to the 
north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of 
South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable 
flash, urban, and minor river flooding.  Heavy rainfall, from North 
Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and 
Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on 
Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the southern New England states 
and New York by Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 32.1N  82.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1200Z 34.1N  80.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0000Z 37.1N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z 40.4N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  10/0000Z 44.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z 54.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
FXUS61 KCAR 080104
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
904 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary over the Gulf of Maine
overnight. Low pressure from the Great Lakes approaches late
Thursday and tracks along the Saint Lawrence valley Thursday
night. Low pressure from the remnants of tropical storm Elsa
will approach from the southwest and track along southern
portions of the area Friday afternoon and evening and move
Northeast away from the region by Saturday morning. High
pressure will build into the area from the west for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.....SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Two main features will fuse into a prolonged rainfall event
over Maine in late week.

The first feature will be the PRE, or Predecessor Rainfall
Event, arriving Thursday evening and overnight. ThetaE ridge
will be poised across the state as low pres winds up the the St
Lawrence River. Surging PWATs around 1.5 move into ME from
the S w/ added forcing from escaping high to NE. Current QPF
thoughts line much of the North Woods and Crown of Maine with
the bulk of stratiform rain. This also lines up well beneath a
grouping of supportive differential divergence in the column.
Showers and some thunder develop across the Central Highlands
and Downeast areas through the night, increasing in coverage
into Fri afternoon...to the next feature.

Elsa will near the Gulf of Maine shores Friday afternoon per
NHCs forecast. Currently the main impact is forecast to be
heavy rain potential across Downeast and the Central Highlands
Fri afternoon into the late evening.

With the two events combined, a widespread storm total precip of
around 2 inches appears possible. Locally higher will be
possible in convective and terrain elements, especially with the
dynamics Elsa may bring. No hydro headlines currently, but with
increasing confidence of where a PRE/Elsa overlap could form,
they should be considered in subsequent updates. Elsas center
will be moving quickly across the region, but drought stricken
areas can still see minor flooding if training of the synoptic
rain combines w/ dampened/saturated areas from the event Thurs
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure dominates the area through the remainder of the
weekend. Return flow arrives Monday with increasing rain shower
chances. The continued flow will keep these chances around into
mid-week. Temps will run about normal for early to mid July with
highs in the mid to upper 70s, and lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&.....

8:56 PM ADT Wednesday 07 July 2021
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Tropical Storm Elsa.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Elsa is currently now inland over southern Georgia. Elsa is expected to track across the Maritimes as a Post-Tropical storm late Friday or Saturday bringing significant rain to parts of the region.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 31.4 North 82.7 West.

About 167 kilometres west-southwest of Savannah GA.

Maximum sustained winds: 75 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North-northeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

As Tropical Storm Elsa is still several days away from affecting our region, specific details on its impacts in our region are preliminary at this time. These impacts could change significantly depending on how the storm evolves over the next few days as it traverses the southeastern United States.

a. Wind.

Widespread damaging winds from Elsa are not expected across the Maritimes at this time. However some gusty winds are possible just south of its eventual track through the region, potentially gusting to 60 or 70 km/h.

b. Rainfall.

The most likely impact from Elsa will be rainfall, with areas along and north of its eventual track through the region picking up significant rainfall, likely in excess of 50 mm.

c. Surge/Waves.

No significant coastal impacts from storm surge is currently expected from Elsa. Latest wave models suggest wave heights of 2 to 3 metres reaching the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia by late Friday or Saturday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force winds are possible in some waters just south of Elsa's track on Friday or early Saturday.

Forecaster(s): Borgel / McArthur

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

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