Halloween Horror Update One - Historic Category Two Hurricane Melissa Passes Over Bermuda

FXCN31 CWHX 310000

Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the

Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9.27 PM NDT

Thursday 30 October 2025.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 AM NDT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.30 PM NDT, hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 31.3 N

and longitude 68.9 W, about 225 nautical miles or 417 km

west-southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at

90 knots (167 km/h) and central pressure at 970 MB. Melissa is moving

northeast at 30 knots (56 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind

          NDT                    MB  kts  kmh

Oct 30  9.30 PM  31.3N  68.9W   970   90  167

Oct 31  3.30 AM  34.7N  65.5W   967   85  157

Oct 31  9.30 AM  37.5N  62.5W   967   80  148

Oct 31  3.30 PM  40.7N  59.2W   967   75  139

Oct 31  9.30 PM  43.8N  55.8W   967   70  130 post-tropical

Nov 01  3.30 AM  46.6N  52.6W   962   65  120 post-tropical

Nov 01  9.30 AM  49.5N  48.9W   964   65  120 post-tropical

Nov 01  3.30 PM  51.1N  46.5W   959   60  111 post-tropical

Nov 01  9.30 PM  53.3N  43.1W   955   60  111 post-tropical

Nov 02  2.30 AM  54.0N  40.5W   955   55  102 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Hurricane Melissa is now located 225 NM west-southwest of Bermuda and

continues accelerating toward the notheast. Based off the latest

microwave satellite imagery, the storm is starting to experience

west-southwesterly wind shear.  A recent NOAA reconnaissance flight

shows that surface level winds are much weaker than winds aloft.

B. Prognostic

Melissa is being steered by a mid level trough located over the

Southeastern United States and a ridge of high pressure over the

central Atlantic. Melissa will continue to encounter stronger shear

and colder ssts tonight and is expected to lose tropical

characteristics. Melissa is expected to become extratropical over

southeastern maritime waters Friday night and pass near or south of

the Avalon Peninsula early Saturday morning.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane

         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW

31/00Z  180 220 150 140    90 110  60  50    50  70  35  30

31/06Z  185 230 170 140    95 110  70  50    40  60  35  25

31/12Z  200 240 210 140    95 110  80  40    40  70  35   0

31/18Z  200 260 230 145    95 110  80  40    25  60  30   0

01/00Z  195 270 195 140   100 110  80   0     0  70  25   0

01/06Z  190 305 225 130    90 110  80   0     0  55  20   0

01/12Z  220 350 270 140    90 110  80   0     0  40   0   0

01/18Z  210 350 260 160    70  90  65   0     0   0   0   0

02/00Z  210 340 250 160    60  70  60   0     0   0   0   0

02/06Z  180 320 250 170    50  70  60   0     0   0   0   0

END/MCARTHUR/WHITE

9:23 PM ADT Thursday 30 October 2025

Tropical Cyclone Information Statement (Melissa) in effect for:

Land Zone

Newfoundland

Avalon Peninsula Southeast

Avalon Peninsula Southwest

Marine Zone

Maritime Waters

Laurentian Fan

Newfoundland Waters

East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south

Northern Grand Banks

South Coast - Cape St. Mary's and east

Southeastern Grand Banks

Southwestern Grand Banks

The next information statement will be issued by 3:30 a.m. NDT.

Hurricane Melissa is continuing to the northeast and will pass west of Bermuda tonight. Melissa will then reach the Canadian Maritime and Newfoundland waters Friday afternoon, passing close to the southeastern Avalon Peninsula Friday night into early Saturday. A period of heavy rain, strong winds along with heavy surf are expected. 

1. Summary of basic information at 9:30 p.m. NDT.

Location: 31.3 North 68.9 West.

About 420 kilometres west-southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 165 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: northeast at 51 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 970 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The hurricane is expected to transition to a post-tropical storm prior to passing near or south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland early on Saturday. If it ends up tracking further west, heavy rain and stronger winds may be felt for parts of the Avalon. There will be large waves and heavy surf for the southern coast of Newfoundland beginning Friday and continuing on Saturday.

a. Wind.

There is a chance that parts of the Avalon could be within the storm circulation and therefore would see some moderate winds. If the centre of the storm stays south of land, the highest winds would not be much of a concern. Regardless, gusts reaching 80 km/h are possible for parts of the southern and eastern coastline of the Avalon Peninsula Friday night. Strong southwest winds will also persist across the region on Saturday.

b. Rainfall.

With Melissa expected to track near or just offshore of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland, a short period of heavy rain is possible over a 3 to 6 hour window. There will be some enhancement of rain associated with the low pressure system over New England that will give period of heavy rain from southeastern Ontario towards Newfoundland and Labrador.

c. Surge/Waves.

For southeastern Newfoundland, large waves will arrive and build from the southwest late Friday evening, peaking early Saturday with breaking significant wave heights of 5 to 7 metres forecast. These waves combined with the possibility of storm surge may cause higher than normal water levels particularly along southwest-facing shorelines in the Burin and Avalon Peninsulas beginning Friday night and continuing into Sunday morning. 

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are now in effect for the southeastern half of Laurentian Fan and the southwestern Grand Banks. Storm force wind warnings are in effect for eastern Banqureau, northwestern Laurentian Fan, Southeastern Grand Banks, and East Coast – Cape St. Francis and south. Offshore waters could see significant wave heights reach 10 metres south of Melissa's track. 

Forecaster: Clements/McArthur/White.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

000

WTNT33 KNHC 302351

TCPAT3

 

BULLETIN

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

800 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

 

...MELISSA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY 

NORTHEASTWARD...

...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT 

SEVERAL HOURS...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W

ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...51 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to

completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the

island shortly after sunset today.

 

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain

and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of

Newfoundland Friday night.  For more information on impacts in

Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at

https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was 

located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Melissa is 

moving rapidly toward the northeast near 32 mph (51 km/h). An even 

faster motion toward the northeast is expected into Saturday. A 

gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Sunday. On the 

forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the 

northwest of Bermuda tonight and pass south of the Avalon Peninsula 

of Newfoundland Friday night.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is likely through evening. 

However, Melissa is expected to weaken later tonight and Friday 

and become a post-tropical low by Friday night.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255

miles (405 km). Automated stations on Bermuda have been reporting 

wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h) during the past hour.

 

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda shortly, with 

hurricane conditions expected there tonight. Gusty winds are 

possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday 

night.

 

RAINFALL: For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring 1 to 2

inches of rain through tonight.

 

A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon

Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday night.

 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total

Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

 

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas

of onshore winds for Bermuda.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions

of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and

Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa

are also likely to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States

and Atlantic Canada Friday and persist into the weekend. These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

 

$$

Forecaster Beven

195

FXUS61 KGYX 302338

AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

738 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure near the Mid Atlantic crosses the area tonight

into Friday. This system will bring a widespread soaking

rainfall and a period of gusty winds tonight into early Friday

morning. High pressure builds in for the weekend with seasonably

cool temperatures. A series of shortwave troughs move through

next week, bringing generally cool and at times unsettled

conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

745 PM Update... The going forecast remains in good shape with

this update mostly focusing on decreasing winds across the

interior where so far, a sfc inversion is keeping things

relatively calm. The main batch of rain is now moving into

southern NH and this rainfall along with the increasing winds

continue to be the primary focus for tonight.

Previously...

A dynamic system is taking shape to the southwest of New England

this afternoon with an area of low pressure forecast to deepen as it

tracks NE across New England tonight. A potent short wave coupled

with the right entrance region of an upper jet will spread strong

forcing for ascent over the area between 8 PM this evening through 8

AM Friday morning. During this time an axis of moderate to heavy

rain will slide across the area with amounts still forecast in the 1

to 2 inch range with higher amounts on southeast facing mountain

slopes. Some elevated instability combined with PWATs around

1.25 inches will bring potential max rainfall rates around 0.5

inches per hour while overall rain impacts will be limited to

poor drainage nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways.

As the axis of rain of rain crosses the area tonight, so will a

formidable ESE low level jet. This LLJ will approach 60 kts within a

2000 to 4000 FT agl layer. The HRRR has been steadfast over the last

several runs that some short duration gusts in excess of 45 mph will

be possible beneath the core of the LLJ as it translates west to

east across the area between midnight and 7 AM. These gusts have

some support from other mesoscale models while BUFKIT profiles do

suggest that a modest inversion should inhibit mixing. I have

incorporated the HRRR into the wind gust forecast tonight while the

short duration and sporadic spatial distribution of the strongest

gusts fall short of Wind Advisory criteria. The key message is that

winds may be strong enough tonight to down tree branches producing a

limited power outage threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure will lift north into the St Lawrence Valley Friday with

steady rain ending from SW to NE Friday morning. Areas south of

the mountains will remain mostly dry into Friday evening. Moisture

wrapping into the backside of the system will lead to persistent

upslope showers along and north of the mountains with colder

air allowing for rain showers to change to snow showers in the

mountains by Friday evening. As low pressure moves north of the

area it will continue to deepen leading to a strong PGF and

gusty southwest to west winds. These winds will gust to around

35 mph by Friday afternoon and will remain gusty through Friday

night.

Snow showers will continue in the mountains through Friday night

with a few inches of accumulation likely across the highest

summits in the Whites. Gusty winds will inhibit radiational

cooling with lows mainly in the 30s

000

WTNT43 KNHC 302042

TCDAT3

 

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  38

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

500 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

 

A recent AMSR2 microwave pass over Melissa indicates that the

center is tilted toward the northeast with height.  The 89 GHz 

(mid-upper level) image shows a center at least 30 n mi northeast of 

where the 37 GHz (low-level) image has the center.  This indicates 

that strong west-southwesterly shear has begun.  Dropsonde and 

flight-level wind data from a NOAA reconnaissance flight show that 

the surface winds are much weaker than the winds aloft, and that the 

standard 90 percent reduction factor should not be used.  Winds on 

the east side of Melissa are quite strong between 1,500 ft and 

10,000 ft, but drop off significantly near the surface.  The 

strongest flight-level wind was 113 kt.  ASCAT showed vectors up to 

70 kt around 15Z, which is consistent with lower-level 

layer-averaged data from the dropsondes.  The latest subjective 

Dvorak estimates are T5.0/90 kt from both TAFB and SAB.  The initial 

intensity will be held at 90 kt, which is equivalent to 80 percent 

of the maximum flight-level wind from the recent flight, but this 

may be a bit generous.

Melissa is accelerating northeastward, or 35 degrees at 27 kt.  

Melissa is likely to speed up to a forward speed of 35 kt or more 

over the next 12 hours, and the fast motion should continue into 

Saturday as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough 

over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central 

Atlantic.  The guidance is in excellent agreement for the first 48 

of the forecast, with the center expected to pass northwest of 

Bermuda tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect.  After 

Melissa becomes extratropical in about 30 hours, the center should 

pass very near the southeastern tip of the Avalon Peninsula of 

Newfoundland, where some impacts from wind, rain and surf are 

possible.  Little to no change has been made to the official track 

forecast through 48 hours, which lies near the various consensus 

aids.

Melissa is now moving into progressively stronger west-southwesterly 

wind shear and will reach sea-surface temperatures below 26C this 

evening.  Therefore, Melissa should begin a weakening trend by early 

Friday.  GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests that 

Melissa should become post-tropical around Friday evening, prior to 

making its closest approach to Newfoundland.  The NHC intensity 

forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies within the upper 

portion of the intensity guidance suite.  The NHC intensity and 

radii forecasts after Melissa becomes post-tropical are largely 

based on the global model solutions.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,

with tropical storm conditions beginning early this evening.

Preparations should have been completed.

 

2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may

need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines

and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside

today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist

for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and

placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to

avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when

using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat

exhaustion.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  30/2100Z 30.2N  69.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  31/0600Z 34.4N  65.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  31/1800Z 40.4N  59.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  01/0600Z 46.3N  52.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  01/1800Z 51.3N  45.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  02/0600Z 53.8N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  02/1800Z 55.1N  33.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  03/1800Z 57.6N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  04/1800Z 61.7N  15.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

$$

Forecaster Hagen

3:50 PM ADT Thursday 30 October 2025

Rainfall Warning in effect for:

Saint John and County

Rain, at times heavy, and strong winds are expected on Halloween.

Locations: parts of southern New Brunswick and the Fundy coast.

Total rainfall: near 50 mm.

Maximum wind gusts: east to southeasterly 70 km/h along the Fundy coast.

Time span: Friday morning and early afternoon.

Remarks: The heaviest rain will taper off to a chance of showers by later Friday afternoon.

Strong east to southeasterly winds are expected to accompany the rainfall.  In the afternoon winds will ease before strengthening again in the evening from the southwest.

Clear storm drains and gutters of leaves and other debris prior to the rainfall to help reduce flooding. Secure outdoor items, including Halloween decorations and garbage bins, to prevent them from being displaced or damaged by strong winds.

Water will likely pool on roads and in low-lying areas. Local utility outages are possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to rainfall amounts.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

3:50 PM ADT Thursday 30 October 2025

Rainfall Warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Rain, at times heavy, and strong winds are expected on Halloween.

Locations: the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia from Yarmouth to Ecum Secum.

Total rainfall: 50 mm, except up to 75 mm in areas of heaviest rain.

Maximum wind gusts: east to southeasterly up to 70 km/h.

Time span: Friday morning until Friday afternoon.

Remarks: The heaviest rain will taper off to isolated showers by early Friday afternoon in the southwest and by late afternoon as you head eastward toward Halifax County. 

Strong southeasterly winds are expected to accompany the rainfall. In the afternoon winds will ease before strengthening again in the evening from the southwest.

Clear storm drains and gutters of leaves and other debris prior to the rainfall to help reduce flooding. Secure outdoor items, including Halloween decorations and garbage bins, to prevent them from being displaced or damaged by strong winds.

Water will likely pool on roads and in low-lying areas. Local utility outages are possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to rainfall amounts.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Gray ME

142 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-311745-

Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-

Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-

Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-

Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-

Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-

Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-

Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-

Western And Central Hillsborough-

142 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,

southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,

central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New

Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Brief easterly wind gusts up to 45 mph could down some tree branches

tonight, bringing a limited power outage potential.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$