Hurricane Kyle Update 3

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281751
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE HEADED FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINE IS
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...YARMOUTH...AND
SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORTLAND MAINE AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370
KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KYLE COULD STILL BE AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
NEAR 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...41.6 N...66.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

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WOCN31 CWHX 281800
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE KYLE TRACKING TOWARDS DIGBY NECK...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 67.1 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES OR 245 KM EAST
OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS...
130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 983 MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH
AT 24 KNOTS... 45 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.5N 67.1W 983 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.7W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.3N 65.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.5W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.6N 63.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.6N 63.4W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 50.4N 63.0W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.1N 62.7W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS TO 90 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE CENTRE OF KYLE APPROACHED
TO THE WEST OF THE BUOY THE REPORTED WINDS INCREASED FROM STRONG
TO HURRICANE FORCE OF 69 KNOTS IN 3 HOURS. THE STORM CENTRE HAS
NOW PASSED WEST OF THE BUOY WHICH REPORTED 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2 PM ADT.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED
FOR GEORGES AND BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA.
STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN
SLOPE MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
LATE MORNING 25 KM ASCAT PASS GAVE A SENSE OF THE BROAD AREA
OF GALES WELL EAST OF KYLE ? EXTENDING TO MORE THAN 200 NM.


HURRICANE KYLE IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
BELIEVED. THE HEAVY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE AND
PARTIALLY NEAR THE CENTRE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION IN SPITE
OF COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS
FOLLOWING AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND NHC FORECASTERS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

WE KEEP OUR TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MIAMI TRACK BUT
EAST OF OUR 12Z TRACK ISSUED THIS MORNING. AT 29/00Z WE KEEP
KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI SUPPORT IS OUR MAIN GUIDANCE.

KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.

THE NEWFOUNDL AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE IS MAINTAINING
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR UNDER RAINFALL WARNING CRITERIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER

CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
IF THE SHIFT EASTWARD IN TRACK IS MORE GRADUAL THAN WE HAVE
BEEN THINKING THEN THESE WAVES COULD BE UPWARDS OF 10 METRES.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/18Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END BOWYER/ROUSSEL

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WTCN31 CWHX 281749
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:49 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
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TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= FUNDY NATIONAL PARK
=NEW= MONCTON AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT ONE OR BOTH OF THE FOLLOWING DANGEROUS
EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN
24 HOURS:

(A) SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ... WINDS OF 118 KM/H OR MORE;

(B) DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER OR A COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER
AND EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES, EVEN THOUGH WINDS EXPECTED MAY BE LESS
THAN HURRICANE FORCE.

BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL.
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TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

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==DISCUSSION==
AT 2PM ADT KYLE APPEARS TO BE IN LINE FOR LANDFALL THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN YARMOUTH COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR
MARGINAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. EVEN IF IT BRUSHES THE COAST AND
PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 130 KM/H
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AREA WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 100 KM/H WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NOVA
SCOTIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
TREE DAMAGE RESULTING IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES LIMBS OR OR TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO
SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IMMEDIATELY.

WATER LEVELS IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1.0 METRE ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TIME
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ACCORDINGLY A STORM SURGE WARNING FOR
THOSE AREAS HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREEICTION CENTRE.
THIS COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF LATE THIS EVENING WILL LEAD
TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY
IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/CHC