Hurricane Kyle Update 5

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE POUNDING NOVA SCOTIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF SAINT JOHN.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KYLE
IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NOVA SCOTIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...44.0 N...66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WOCN31 CWHX 290000 CAB
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... CORRECTED THE WIND SPEEDS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND GULF WATERS ...

...HURRICANE KYLE NEAR THE COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES...



1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.7 N
AND LONGITUDE 66.3 W... ABOUT 15 NAUTICAL MILES OR 30 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986
MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 986 65 120
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.6W 992 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.4N 64.9W 1000 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.4W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.5N 63.8W 1001 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.2N 63.3W 1002 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 49.9N 62.9W 1003 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 50.6N 62.4W 1003 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 51.2N 62.0W 1003 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS MAINTAINED
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS 70 TO 100 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED STRONG TO HURRICANE FORCE OF
69 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM CENTRE PASSED WEST OF THE
BUOY WHICH REPORTED AN 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR GEORGES AND
BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA. STORM WARNINGS
ARE CONTINUED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE
WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE
AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
REPORTS FROM BUOYS SATELLITES SHIPS AND LAND STATIONS INDICATES
THAT STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXISTS IN THE VICINITY
OF HURRICANE KYLE. AT 9 PM THIS EVENING THE ESTIMATED POSITION IS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA AND TRACKING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS OR 43 KM/H.

THE CLOUD SHIELD IS TAKING A COMA SHAPE WITH FRONTAL LIKE
CLOUD AND RAIN BAND TO THE EAST THEN NORTH THEN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CENTRE. THIS IMPLIES RAPID TRANSITIONING
OF HURRICANE KYLE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICS REFERING TO THE EFFECT OF THE MUCH COLDER
WATER IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.

B. PROGNOSTIC

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
WE KEEP KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT WE CONTINUE TO USE SHORT TERM ANALYSIS AND DIAGNOSTIC AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI FOR GUIDANCE.

KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.

D. MARINE WEATHER

CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF 10 METRES IS NOT FAR FETCHED.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 10 30
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



END BOWYER/ROUSSEL/CAMPBELL