Hurricane Kyle Update 4

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

...KYLE APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA...ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
OF KYLE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
OVER OR NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...42.7 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS. THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB. THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22. IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 42.7N 66.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 45.1N 64.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT 29/1800Z 47.7N 63.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 50.5N 63.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH