Hurricane (category 1) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 12

000
WTNT32 KNHC 032340
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...RAIN AND WIND SPREADING OVER 
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST.  EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR.  AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE VERY NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM LONG ISLAND TO MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MOST OF THE HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE WARNING AREA IN MAINE EARLY SATURDAY
...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO DELAWARE BAY.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN