Remembrance Day Storm Update Four

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110544
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
200 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SEAN MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE SEAN IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 110236
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1100 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE PROVIDED MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY
OF SEAN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON ONE HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OF
ABOUT 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS HAS DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AS SEEN IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH 00Z DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BY 24 HOURS...SEAN SHOULD BE
ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

RECENT DVORAK AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/11. THIS RIGHTWARD JOG SHOULD BE TEMPORARY
HOWEVER...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTHEAST...OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE
TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 31.5N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 33.6N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN