Here comes Hurricane Sandy, the Frankenstorm! Part V

000
FXUS61 KCAR 291932
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
332 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS INTO THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE HIGH WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALL
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT....SANDY IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING...AND WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND. THE WIND FIELD OF THIS STORM IS ALREADY WIDENING, AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREFORE, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, PEAKING
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE, WHERE GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WIND
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AS YOU MOVE NORTH, WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50
MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MAINE. MOST OF AROOSTOOK WILL
STAY AT OR BELOW 40 MPH FOR GUSTS. THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO LESSEN.
GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST MODELS INITIATED WITH PRESSURE TOO LOW IN
THE STORM`S CENTER THIS MORNING, HAVE KEPT THE WINDS UP A BIT LONGER
THAN GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA 8-10 PM AND THEN SPREAD
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED, THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPSLOPE REGIONS. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN AND FLOODING
SITUATION.

FOR TUESDAY...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A MILD DAY AS WE STAY IN THE MARITIME
AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF SANDY`S REMNANTS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BUT NOT NEARLY AS DRAMATIC AS MONDAY NIGHT. STILL GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND ALONG THE
COAST. BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND GFS INDICATE THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (200-450 J/KG CAPE) PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
TROP STREAM (UP TO 1.50 IN) OF SANDY FROM THE SUB-TROP WRN ATLC
WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE FA TUE NGT INTO WED MORN WERE WE STILL
INDICATE ORGANIZED RNFL ALG AND AHEAD A WEAK OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT
ACROSS SPCLY ERN AND SRN PTNS OF THE REGION. RNFL SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH TO SHWRS WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA WED AFTN INTO WED NGT
AS DRY SLOT CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE FA FROM QB PROV. DUE TO HOW
FAR NW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES (NW PA)...IT WILL TAKE TO LATE THU
FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SHWR RNFL TO MOVE BACK INTO THE FA WITH
THE EVENTUAL APCH UPPER LOW.

TEMPS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT WILL CONT WELL ABV NORMAL...SPCLY AT
NGT WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLD CVR AND RNFL. HI TEMPS
THU SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5 DEG F COOLER BEHIND THE OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM. A COMPLEXED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH
NOT EXACTLY THE SAME THE GFS...ECMWF...NAM80 ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID-WEST. A NEW LOW OVR COLORADO.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
THE PERIOD. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO WESTERN MAINE BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
THE NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BY THIS TIME BE
CENTERED IN THE CHICAGO AREA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.
BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND THE END OF THE PERIOD MONDAY MORNING
THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA VERMONT...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST INTO MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS LOW SE TO COASTAL
VIRGINA.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR SKY/POP/HRLY T/DP/WINDS.
ADJUSTED FOR COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. PLUS 25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE
WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING, BECOMING
IFR BY MIDNIGHT AS RAIN SPREADS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME, PEAKING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT THE TWO SOUTHERN TERMINALS, WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 KT ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL LET UP GRADUALLY AFTER 06Z,
BUT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: XPCT MSLY IFR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR ALL SITES WED NGT. MVFR CONDITIONS XPCTD NRN
TAF SITES THU THRU SAT WITH MSLY VFR XPCTD DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 35 KT AND
SHOULD PEAK 55 TO 60 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10
FT AND WILL PEAK 20-25 FT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THEREAFTER BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE STORM WARNING EXPIRES. SEE BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


SHORT TERM: AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM AS WINDS AND SEAS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THRU THU. WE WENT
ABOUT A FOOT ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE AT THE START OF THE PD TUES EVE
AND THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 3.5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE. THIS INCLUDES THE MOUNT KATAHDIN AND
MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGIONS. FOR NOW, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE NUISANCE FLOODING RESULTING FROM CLOGGED STORM DRAINS AND
STANDING WATER. HOWEVER, NOTED THAT THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE
PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-FOXCROFT TAKES THE RIVER ABOVE ACTION
STAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED, THE PISCATAQUIS AS WELL AS THE KINGSBURY AND ANY
OTHER SMALL STREAMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO NOTED THAT HPC
HAS INCLUDED ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF ABOUT HOULTON IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THEIR DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. WHILE NO MAJOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME, ALL WATERWAYS IN THIS OUTLOOK AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
SMALLER STREAMS, WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LATEST EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE INDICATES A 1 TO 2 FT STORM
SURGE WITH TNGTS HI TIDE PLUS WIND SPEED SURGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP
STORM TIDE MSLY BELOW 13 FEET. WITH WIND DIRECTION PARALLEL TO
COAST LIMITED PILE UP OF WATER WILL OCCUR DUE TO EKMAN EFFECT...
WHICH SHOULD COVER NHC`S PUBLIC BULLETIN MENTIONING LOCALLY
UP TO A MAX OF 3 FT SURGE. EVEN SO...AT THIS TIME...ONLY MINIMUM
FLOOD LEVELS WITH BAR HARBOR MAXIMUM (ASTRONOMICAL PLUS STORM
SURGE TIDE) AT OR BELOW 14 FEET...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ONSHORE FLOW
TO SUPPLEMENT TIDE AT HEAD OF CONVERGENT BAYS SUCH AS MACHIAS AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS. THIS IMPLIES ONLY A FEW TO SCATTERED LOCATIONS
THAT MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ATTM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-
     031-032.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292058
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB.  BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND
27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA
LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN
WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES
THE COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM.  BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 38.8N  74.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 39.8N  76.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1800Z 40.4N  78.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0600Z 41.3N  78.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1800Z 42.8N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1800Z 45.1N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z 46.3N  72.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1800Z 47.5N  65.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART