Hurricane Dorian (Category One) closes in Update One

000
WTNT35 KNHC 070248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE
SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 70.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova
Scotia and New Brunswick and a hurricane warning is now in effect
from Lower East Pubnico eastward around Nova Scotia to Avonport, and
the tropical storm warning is effect from Tidnish to Brule and from
Fundy National Park to Shediac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico.
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Parson's Pond to Triton
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Saturday
morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane force winds. Thereafter, Dorian
is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern
Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area Saturday, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
Saturday or Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday
night.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF:  Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

9:46 PM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula
Fredericton and Southern York County
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Miramichi and area
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle
Eagle River
Newfoundland
Norman Bay to Lodge Bay
Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti
Blanc-Sablon
Chevery
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
For Hurricane Dorian.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 a.m. ADT.

Hurricane Dorian is accelerating towards Nova Scotia and will make landfall Saturday evening near Halifax. Severe winds and heavy rain for parts of Atlantic Canada and Quebec.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 37.8 North 71.5 West.

About: 458 kilometres northeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: northeast at 43 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 958 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for central and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane Watches are in effect for southwestern Newfoundland, western Nova Scotia, eastern Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for southeastern New Brunswick and western Prince Edward Island. Tropical storm watches are in effect for northern and southwestern Newfoundland.

According to the latest forecast guidance, the most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, passing near or over Halifax Saturday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters or western Newfoundland by Sunday morning.

Severe winds and torrential rain will have major impacts for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland, and the Quebec Lower North Shore, and the Magdalen Islands. Large waves are expected for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and for eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, storm surge, combined with large waves and pounding surf, may give flooding for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands, and parts of the Quebec North Shore.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience tropical storm force winds of 90 to 110 km/h, beginning over southwestern Nova Scotia Saturday morning, in the afternoon over eastern Nova Scotia, and towards evening for Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland. Near and to the south of the forecast track, winds will reach hurricane force of 120 km/h or more. Behind the storm, there is a possibility of storm to hurricane force northwesterlies. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, causing broken branches and tree falls, resulting in power outages, blocking of roads, and other type of damages.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for central and eastern Nova Scotia and eastern Prince Edward Island. Wind warnings are in effect for western and northern Nova Scotia, western Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be a major factor as torrential rain will lead to flooding in some areas. The highest rainfall amounts are expected over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands where 50 to 100 mm are expected. Forecast guidance is also suggesting a swath in excess of 150 mm north and west of Dorian's track. Some districts have received large quantities of rain last week, and with the soil moisture still very high, excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential. This combined with the severe winds may result in damage due to falling trees.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for Nova Scotia, western Prince Edward Island, and eastern and southern New Brunswick.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Waves of 7 to 10 metres will reach the Southwestern Shore of Nova Scotia on Saturday and spread to the Eastern Shore Saturday night. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Sunday morning with waves nearing 12 metres. Waves of 4 to 7 metres will impact north facing coasts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Note that waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Please exercise extreme caution.

Storm surge is an issue, mainly for the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, the north coast of Prince Edward Island, southwestern Newfoundland, and the Magdalen Islands. Current guidance suggests water levels approaching inundation levels during high tide. However, when combined with rough and pounding surf, there may be flooding and overwash of waves.

Storm surge warnings are in effect for the north shore of Prince Edward Island and western Cape Breton. Warnings will be extended to the Lower Quebec North Shore and Anticosti Island, as well as the Magdalen Islands.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

As Dorian moves into our waters, it will spread hurricane force southeasterlies near and south of its track, over offshore Canadian waters. As the hurricane moves further into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will develop behind it. Waves of 10 to 15 metres are expected south of the storm track, beginning late Saturday over southwestern waters and approaching the south coast of Newfoundland Sunday morning. As the low continues east Sunday into Monday, waves of 4 to 7 metres will develop over eastern waters, and for the southwestern Grand Banks will build to 5 to 10 metres and will diminish to near 5 metres late in the day.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for most Atlantic waters and storm warnings are in effect for most other waters in the Maritimes. For Newfoundland, a Storm warning is in effect for the Southwest Coast, and gales are in effect for western and southern waters.

Forecasters: March/Mercer/Couturier/McArthur

FXCN31 CWHX 070000
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.54 PM ADT
Friday 06 September 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 37.8 N and
longitude 71.5 W, about 247 nautical miles or 458 km northeast of
Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 80 knots (148
km/h) and central pressure at 958 MB. Dorian is moving northeast at
23 knots (43 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 06  9.00 PM  37.8N  71.5W   958   80  148
Sep 07  9.00 AM  40.4N  68.0W   960   80  148
Sep 07  9.00 PM  44.4N  64.0W   960   80  148
Sep 08  9.00 AM  48.9N  60.2W   960   70  130 post-tropical
Sep 08  9.00 PM  51.7N  55.1W   963   60  111 post-tropical
Sep 09  9.00 AM  54.5N  48.7W   971   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 09  9.00 PM  56.1N  43.0W   979   45   83 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Dorian has become better organised with the eye embedded in a cdo
with a strong outer band north of the system. Reconnassance doesn'T
show any significant change in intensification, but satellite
intensity estimates are trending upward. The initial 80 KT estimate
is maintained.There is excellent outflow in the north. Forward motion
is to the northeast at 23 kts.

B. Prognostic

Dorian should move quickly towards us as it interacts with a mid to
upper level trough. Guidance continues to be strongly clustered, with
a track into nova scoita Saturday night. The low will then curve into
the Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence and then will eject east in the
brisk westerly upper flow.

The ecmwf/gfs deterministic models indicate a baroclinic
intensification in the trough moving the system east, including
strong upper level divergence. It will also be over warm waters until
it gets well into the Scotian shelf. Nhc suggests intensification
before the et transition starts prior to making landfall near Halifax
as a strong category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane. Et is
expected to continue until the storm moves into the Gulf of St.
Lawrence while remaining at hurricane strengh until it passes
Northern Newfoundland.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
07/00Z  245 260 190 145   100 110  80  80    55  55  50  55
07/12Z  255 275 200 160   110 145  95  85    60  65  55  55
08/00Z  270 280 210 180   110 175 100  90    65  70  55  45
08/12Z  265 275 220 195    95 145  90  90    55  50  30  45
09/00Z  240 265 225 195    75 100  70  80     0   0   0   0
09/12Z  210 255 225 190    60  90  50  65     0   0   0   0
10/00Z  210 255 260 190     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/MERCER/MARCH/COUTURIER/MCARTHUR