Hurricane Dorian (Category One) heads our way Update Two

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WTNT45 KNHC 061457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The eye of Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
at about 1235 UTC and then moved quickly northeastward into the
Atlantic.  A combination of surface observations and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum
winds are near 80 kt and the central pressure is near 957 mb.  The
hurricane remains well-organized in satellite imagery, with
the 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective banding.

The initial motion is now 045/15.  Dorian should accelerate
northeastward during the next 24-36 h as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow.  The track guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in
either direction or speed from the previous forecast.  The new
forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina
coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight
and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday
night.  A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring
the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic.

Dorian is expected to slowly weaken due to increased shear and
entrainment of drier air during the next 24 h or so.  After that
time, the hurricane is expected to undergo extratropical
transition and become a large and powerful post-tropical low.  It is
unclear whether the transition will be complete before Dorian
reaches Nova Scotia.  However, whether Dorian is a hurricane or a
hurricane-force extratropical low, it is expected to bring strong
winds, storm surge, and heavy rains to portions of Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland.  The new NHC intensity forecast is little changed from
the previous forecast, and it follows the trend of the intensity
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue
along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast
Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay for the next several
hours.

2. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be significant and
life-threatening, will continue into early afternoon across portions
of northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia.

3. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf
of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia
this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia,
Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday.
Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more
information on these hazards.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 35.7N  74.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 37.4N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 40.7N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 44.9N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/1200Z 48.8N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1200Z 54.5N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

10:49 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Heavy rain is expected.

Heavy rain associated with Hurricane Dorian is forecast to spread across Nova Scotia. Rain will begin in the southwest late overnight and spread northeastward through the day on Saturday.

Total rainfall amounts of 70 to 90 mm are expected over western Nova Scotia by late Saturday afternoon. Amounts of 40 to 70 mm are expected by that time over central and northwestern Nova Scotia. Rainfall rates could exceed 30 mm/hr in the heavy downpours giving increased risk of road washouts and localized flooding.

Additional rainfall is expected on Saturday night and some areas may receive total amounts exceeding 150 mm by the time precipitation winds down late Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Rainfall warnings are likely to be expanded with future updates.

Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow, fast-moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle or a person away. Don't approach washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

 10:46 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Wind warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Strong winds with severe and damaging gusts are expected or occurring.

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to approach Nova Scotia during the day Saturday, strong easterly winds will develop Saturday morning with gusts currently forecast to reach 80 to 100 km/h during the late morning and into the afternoon.

Late Saturday, Dorian is forecast to make landfall somewhere over eastern Nova Scotia. Winds around the storm may reach hurricane strength over some portions of the province.

Please closely monitor future forecast updates as more information will be made available as Dorian begins to approach the Maritimes.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may cause downed trees or toss loose objects. Store or anchor objects so they are not tossed by the wind causing injury or damage.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

10:48 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to spread heavy rain across southern and eastern New Brunswick. Rain will begin over southern areas Saturday morning and spread northeastward through the day.

Total rainfall amounts of 50 to 90 mm are expected over parts of southern and eastern New Brunswick before the rain ends overnight Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. If visibility is reduced while driving, turn on your lights and maintain a safe following distance. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

11:46 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Tropical storm watch in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.
Tropical storm force winds of possible 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Dorian may occur over the above regions.

Hurricane Dorian will be leaving the coast of North Carolina and will begin to race northeastward toward the Maritimes today. The most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, pushing through eastern Nova Scotia Saturday night and then over eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence region early Sunday.
Strong wind gusts reaching 90 km/h are possible over the region beginning Saturday afternoon.

Flooding is possible due to storm surge, and the most likely period is Saturday evening.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

11:44 AM ADT Friday 06 September 2019
Hurricane watch in effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
There is a slight possibility that Hurricane Dorian could bring near-hurricane conditions.

Hurricane Dorian will be leaving the coast of North Carolina and will begin to race northeastward toward the Maritimes today. The most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, pushing through eastern Nova Scotia Saturday night. Severe wind gusts reaching 150 km/h are possible over parts of the province beginning Saturday afternoon and evening.

Flooding is also possible along the Atlantic coast due to storm surge and rough and pounding waves. The most likely period is from Saturday afternoon into the evening.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours. Hurricane conditions include (A) sustained winds near 120 km/h or more, and/or (B) significantly elevated water levels and dangerous surf along the coast.

By nature, a hurricane also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.