Extratropical Storm Teddy (Storm Force) Makes Landfall In Eastern Nova Scotia

736 

WTNT35 KNHC 231435

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA...

...STILL FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND 

HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...46.0N 61.3W

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm

Warning from Digby to Ecum Secum Nova Scotia.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm

Watch from Fort Lawrence to Digby Nova Scotia, and from west of 

Brule to Tidnish.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* South coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove

* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Meat Cove to Brule Nova Scotia

* Magdalen Islands Quebec

* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress

of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 800 AM AST 

(1200 UTC), with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h), 

and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches). 

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy

was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 61.3 West.  The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26

mph (43 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is

expected for the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center

will move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon, be near 

Newfoundland early tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 

Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)

from the center. A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to

67 mph (107 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the

eastern coast of Nova Scotia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  Coastal flooding is still possible over portions of 

eastern Nova Scotia east of Ecum Secum.  Near the coast, large and 

destructive waves are likely.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the

Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast

of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia

warning area and are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning 

area this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the

watch areas today.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall

accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals

of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Blake

737 

WTNT45 KNHC 231436

TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning 

near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum 

sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb.  Since 

then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is 

slowly weakening.  The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt.  Teddy 

should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this 

afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight.  After passing 

east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging 

with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No 

significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity 

forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells 

creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the 

southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large

destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia. 

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of 

Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen 

Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected 

through Thursday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect

portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the

Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada

during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 46.0N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 12H  24/0000Z 49.5N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  24/1200Z 54.5N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Blake