Tropical Storm Elsa In Eastern Long Island

000

WTNT35 KNHC 091446

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  38

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND...

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE

NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.0N 72.1W

ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK

ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the

south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north

shore

* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including

Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning

area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was

located by surface and radar data over eastern Long Island near 

latitude 41.0 North, longitude 72.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the 

northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is 

expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the 

next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa 

will move near eastern Long Island and the coast of southern New 

England through this afternoon, and then offshore the northeastern 

United States coast by this evening. The system should move over 

Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

No significant change in strength is expected today. Gradual

weakening is forecast to occur over the weekend. Elsa is forecast

to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center. A WeatherFlow site near Jones Beach, New York

recently reported a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) and a WeatherFlow

site near Block Island Jetty observed a sustained wind of 39 mph

(63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA

buoy 44025 is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions

of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-

afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions

of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a

post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of

rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today,

which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with

Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon

over southeastern New England.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown

000

WTNT45 KNHC 091446

TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  38

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway.  A frontal

boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the

circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and

heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the

cyclone.  Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition

this afternoon.  Buoy and surface observations indicate that the

cyclone's intensity has changed little since early this morning.

Based on those data, Elsa's peak winds and minimum pressure

remain 45 kt and 1000 mb for this advisory, respectively.

Elsa continues to move quickly northeastward or 045/27 kt.  The

post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating

northeastward over the next day or two as it remains embedded

within deep-layer southwesterly flow.  After 48 hours, the system is

expected to slow before it dissipates over the north Atlantic

around day 3.  The track guidance remains in good agreement, but has

shifted slightly southward after 24 hours and the NHC forecast has

been adjusted accordingly.

Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa

completes its extratropical transition.  After that time, gradual

weakening is anticipated and the wind speed forecast calls for the

system to weaken below gale-force in a couple of days.  The global

models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north

Atlantic by early next week, and the official forecast follows

suit.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves near southern and coastal New England today, heavy

rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions

of the warning area in Long Island and southern New England

through this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of

Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 41.0N  72.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z 44.0N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  10/1200Z 48.4N  60.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  11/0000Z 52.2N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  11/1200Z 56.5N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  12/0000Z 60.0N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Brown

10:51 AM ADT Friday 09 July 2021

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Colchester County - Cobequid Bay

Rain, at times heavy, continues.

Total rainfall amount: 50 to 60 mm.

Locations: Cumberland County and Colchester County - Cobequid Bay.

Time span: today through early Saturday morning.

Remarks: A cluster of thundershowers produced moderate to heavy rainfall rates this morning. Though showers will taper off somewhat today, rain is forecast to become moderate to heavy again late this evening as Tropical Storm Elsa, which is expected to become post-tropical, approaches. Rain will taper off early Saturday morning as Elsa pulls away to the northeast, with total rainfall amounts approaching 60 mm in some areas.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

10:51 AM ADT Friday 09 July 2021

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Kings County P.E.I.

Rain, at times heavy, continues.

Significant rain is expected.

Total rainfall: 35 to 50 mm.

locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: today through early Saturday morning.

Remarks: Showers will persist today as a frontal trough of low pressure moves through the region, with some thundershowers expected to enhance rainfall rates late this morning in Queens and Kings Counties. Tropical Storm Elsa, which will become post-tropical later today, will enhance the precipitation tonight as it tracks west of the Island early Saturday morning. Total rainfall amounts of up to 50 mm are now forecast for the entire Island.

Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.