Tropical Storm Earl Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 12

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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
EARL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  WHILE THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS 958 MB...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT EARL
IS NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PEAK SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 55 KT AND A 700-MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 67 KT JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC.  THE
DEEP CONVECTION WITH EARL IS INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF
15-20 KT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  EARL WILL BE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SOON...AND COLD WATER
AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT EARL WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRANSITION COMPLETE IN 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 035 DEGREES
AT 22 KNOTS.  EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...MUCH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT EARL WILL
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A DISTINCT CYCLONE THROUGH
72 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR BEING ABSORBED.  THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.
 
EARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 40.0N  69.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 43.1N  66.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 48.2N  61.6W    45 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 57.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN
 

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TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
...EARL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 69.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND
CAPE COD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF WATCH HILL
RHODE ISLAND AND FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM WESTWARD TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND
BLOCK ISLAND
* STONINGTON MAINE TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. 
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...EARL WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
 
EARL IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM RHODE ISLAND TO COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS
TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE WARNING AREA IN
DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY SATURDAY...AND SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND SOUND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
8:54 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Tropical storm warning for
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick continued

A tropical storm warning means that sustained gales...Winds of 63 km/h or more...Are expected in the specified areas within 24 hours. By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall.

At 9:00 PM ADT the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 140 kilometres south southwest of Cape Cod and is moving northeast at 43 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall near Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning.

Strong winds in the Bay of Fundy will result in wind gusts to 90 km/h or more on Saturday.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres is expected in the south and southeast regions on Saturday as Earl tracks across the Maritimes.  Yarmouth County
9:09 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Tropical storm warning for
Yarmouth County continued

Winds gusts over portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will likely reach or exceed 100 km/h. Over the remainder of the province winds gusting to at least 90 km/h are likely.

A tropical storm warning means that sustained gales...Winds of 63 km/h or more...Are expected in the specified areas within 24 hours. By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall.

At 9:00 PM ADT the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 140 kilometres south southwest of Cape Cod and is moving northeast at 43 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall near Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning.

It is likely that portions of southern and Western Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h....Possibly reaching 130 km/h. Wind gusts reaching 90 km/h or higher are possible elsewhere over the above regions. These strong wind gusts could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage..Roofing materials and building cladding.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick, Western Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour which could lead to localized flooding and road washouts.

High waves and pounding surf can be expected along south and southeast facing coastlines around portions of the Maritimes with the arrival of Earl. Wave impacts at the coast could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure.

Higher than normal water levels are possible along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tides are low this weekend..The chances of severe storm surge is diminished.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information