Tropical Storm Earl Nears Landfall in Nova Scotia

WOCN31 CWHX 041200 

Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 12.00 PM ADT 1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 42.8 N And longitude 65.8 W... About 60 nautical miles or 115 km south southeast of Yarmouth . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 965 MB. Earl is Moving northeast at 28 knots... 52 km/h. 2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind ADT MB kts kmh Sep 04 9.00 AM 42.8N 65.8W 965 65 120 Sep 04 3.00 PM 45.3N 63.4W 970 55 102 transitioning Sep 04 9.00 PM 47.9N 61.1W 977 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 AM 50.0N 59.1W 982 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 AM 51.9N 56.6W 988 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 PM 53.6N 55.0W 990 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.4N 53.5W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 AM 57.0N 55.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 AM 58.2N 57.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 PM 58.8N 59.3W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 PM 59.4N 60.4W 992 35 65 post-tropical 3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Earl is expected to make landfall in Southern Nova Scotia in the Next few hours ... Or brush right along the coast and make landfall in Lunenburg or Halifax county closer to noon. Hurricane watches are in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Guysborough counties of Nova Scotia. Tropical storm warnings are continued for all of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la Madeleine and Southeast New Brunswick. These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage, roofing materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a concern which could exacerbate these impacts. A tropical storm watch is continued for Kent County and Kouchibouguac National Park. Heavy rain has been falling over Southwestern Nova Scotia for many hours and rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the Maritimes with either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates. Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure, although the tides are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide. 4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane warnings are continued for Lurcher and Browns Bank. Gale or storm warnings are continued for most other portions of The maritime marine district. Gale warnings are continued for Western Newfoundland waters. Storm force winds arrived at the Browns Bank buoy at 6AM ADT and the west Scotian Slope buoy at 7AM ADT. Gale force gusts started being reported from Baccaro Point at 6AM ADT. With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can be Expected primarily along south and southeast facing coastlines. The threat of storm surge flooding is low for regions around The Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia, and the southern gulf Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait. 5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists A. Analysis Earlier aircraft reconnaissance showed winds below hurricane Strength although the storm retains a clear satellite eye signature. Ir goes imagery shows a reorganization off the core with an eye. Composite radar has captured a closed circulation moving into Southwestern Nova Scotia. Buoy b44024 reported 54 kts at 10Z with MSLP 969 MB with pressure dropping rapidly. 11Z report from b44024 showed storm centre just passing the buoy in the previous hour with a pressure report of 967 MB and 50 KT southwest winds ... So we fix MSLP of Earl at 965 MB. Buoy b44150 reported 11Z Max winds of 50 kts. This combined with satellite interpretation provides our rationale for maintaining Earl as a marginal hurricane. B. Prognostic Short-term extrapolation shows the centre of Earl coming in near The boundary between Lunenburg and Halifax counties. Beyond that early track guidance is much more divergent than it was a day ago ... With a split in solutions. Accordingly our confidence in the forecast track beyond 36 hours is low. C. Public weather Ascat satellite wind derivations show the distortion of wind Fields has taken place with the strongest band in its Southeastern sector. So far, satellite imagery of the spiral Warm topped convection implies that rain band structure may Dominate upon landfall. Hence over 25 mm an hour heavy downpours Are expected. We should shortly see the area of Precipitation evolve such that the heaviest rain moves toward The left side of the storm and nudge toward a cold front Approaching from the west. Some computer model runs Still show a band of rain extending east of the storm Into Newfoundland as Earl nears, similar to a warm front Development. Regarding rainfall potential, for a storm of this nature, 2500 divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to 40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with The output of latest dynamical models. D. Marine weather Predicted wind radii (NM) Time gales storms hurricane Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw 04/12Z 210 210 150 90 120 120 75 60 0 20 0 0 04/18Z 220 220 150 90 100 120 60 60 0 0 0 0 05/00Z 240 240 210 90 90 90 60 30 0 0 0 0 05/06Z 270 300 300 90 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 05/12Z 300 300 300 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/18Z 300 300 300 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 300 300 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/06Z 270 270 270 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/12Z 240 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 220 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/00Z 200 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 End campbell/fogarty/bowyer
WOCN31 CWHX 040900 Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 6.00 AM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT At 6.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 41.7 N and longitude 67.2 W... About 110 nautical miles or 135 km south southwest of Yarmouth. Earl is moving towards the north-northeastward at 25 knots... 46 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 Km/h and central pressure at 965 MB. Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada. End campbell
WOCN31 CWHX 040600 Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 AM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 6.00 AM ADT 1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion At 3.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 40.5 N and longitude 68.2 W... About 95 nautical miles or 175 km east southeast of Nantucket. Maximum sustained winds Are estimated at 60 to 65 knots... 110 to 120 km/h... And central pressure at 959 MB. Earl is moving northeast At 24 knots... 44 km/h. 2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind ADT MB kts kmh Sep 04 3.00 AM 40.5N 68.2W 960 65 120 Sep 04 9.00 AM 43.2N 66.6W 969 65 120 Sep 04 3.00 PM 45.5N 64.1W 974 55 102 post-tropical Sep 04 9.00 PM 48.0N 61.5W 977 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 AM 50.0N 59.2W 997 50 93 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 AM 51.9N 56.6W 988 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 3.00 PM 53.4N 54.8W 990 40 74 post-tropical Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.3N 53.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 AM 57.0N 55.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 AM 58.2N 57.9W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 3.00 PM 58.8N 59.3W 991 35 65 post-tropical Sep 06 9.00 PM 59.4N 60.4W 992 35 65 post-tropical Sep 07 3.00 AM 59.9N 61.1W 993 35 65 post-tropical 3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane watches remain in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for all of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la Madeleine and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick including Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick. These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage, roofing materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a concern which could exacerbate these impacts. A tropical storm watch is continued for Kent County and Kouchibouguac National Park. Rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the Maritimes with either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates. The uncertainty in the timing of the storm's arrival is about plus Or minus 3 hours. Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure, although the tides are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide. 4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane warnings are in effect for Lurcher and Browns Bank in the southwest Maritimes marine district. Gales or storms are in effect for many other portions of that district. Gales are in effect for Western Newfoundland waters. With the arrival of Earl, high waves and pounding surf can be expected primarily along south and southeast-facing coastlines. The threat of storm surge flooding is not great for regions around the Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia, and the southern gulf Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait. 5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists A. Analysis Aircraft reconnaissance show winds now below hurricane strength. Goes imagery is into eclipse mode but until that time, the Ciculation centre of Earl seemed ot be slightly more eastward And slower than our forecast track. Convection was diminishing Over Earl. B. Prognostic The majority of model runs continue to show a track through Nova Scotia. However.. Satellite imagery and Boston long Range radar would favour a more eastward and slower Solution. It is noted that the operational dynamic models Such as the Gem regional model, nam and gfs have been hinting At this more eastward track for several runs. As a result.. We favour a more eastward track with Earl in this release of the forecast. As for the subject of Miami forecasting 60 knots and Halifax forecasting 65 knots for the storm, we maintain the slightly Stronger winds based on the abnormally hot and humid airmass over The Maritimes which will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical character. As well, water temperatures over which the highest Winds of the storm will travel are running 2 to 4 degrees Above normal. The buffering effect of the usually cooler Waters will be less with this storm. Thus, gusty winds, Possibly hurricane force, could overspread Nova Scotia with The wind flow off the water from the south. It must be said that the difference of 5 knots or 9 km/h is well within the normal forecast error of wind forecasting. Hence Our maintenance of Earl as a 65 knot hurricane is justified. The upper trough moving slowly through Ontario continues to Guide Earl toward Southeastern Labrador. Afterward it becomes captured and gradually loses its identity as it curls into this Upper feature. C. Public weather Ascat satellite wind derivations show the distortion of wind Fields already taking palce with the strongest band in its southeastern sector. American long range radr show a continuation Of a rain band structure. We should shortly see the area of precipitation evolve such that the heaviest rain moves toward The left side of the storm and nudge toward a cold front Approaching from the west. Some computer model runs Still show a band of rain extending east of the storm Into Newfoundland as Earl nears, similar to a warm front Development. Regarding rainfall potential, for a storm of this nature, 2500 divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to 40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with The output of latest dynamical models. D. Marine weather Wave models plus forecaster experience suggest that seas of 10 Metres are possible along the southern portion of Nova Scotia. Predicted wind radii (NM) Time gales storms hurricane Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw 04/06Z 210 210 150 150 90 150 90 60 20 20 20 20 04/12Z 210 210 160 120 120 120 75 60 0 20 0 0 04/18Z 220 220 160 110 100 120 60 45 0 0 0 0 05/00Z 240 240 210 100 90 90 60 30 0 0 0 0 05/06Z 270 300 300 100 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 05/12Z 300 300 300 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/18Z 300 300 300 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 300 300 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/06Z 270 270 270 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/12Z 240 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 220 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/00Z 200 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/06Z 180 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 End campbell
WOCN31 CWHX 040300 Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 12.00 PM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT At 12.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 40.0 N and longitude 69.7 W... About 75 nautical miles or 140 km south southeast of Nantucket . Earl is moving towards the northeast at 22 knots... 54 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 60 to 65 Knots... 100 to 120 km/h and central pressure at 958 MB. Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada. End campbell

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
...EARL VERY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CAPE SABLE NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR MAINE FROM
STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT TUPPER.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO PORT MAITLAND HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER TO FUNDY NATIONAL PARK HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO POINT TUPPER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE FUNDY NATIONAL PARK EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A VERY LARGE AND STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. BUOY 44024 LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
SABLE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE REACHED THE WARNING
AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COASTS...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EASTERN MAINE...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN