Tropical Storm Earl Over Nova Scotia Update 1

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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 44.3N  64.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 48.0N  60.7W    50 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA
AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.3N 64.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO PORT
LHEBERT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LHEBERT TO POINT TUPPER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE FUNDY NATIONAL PARK EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA
SCOTIA EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER
OF EARL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
64.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND AND THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  NUMEROUS STATIONS IN
NOVA SCOTIA ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE WINDS.  MCNABS
ISLAND JUST REPORTED 56 MPH...90 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH...109
KM/HR. LUNENBURG REPORTED GUSTS TO 69 MPH...111 KM/HR AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.  THIS
IS BASED ON A 963 MB...28.44 INCHES...PRESSURE REPORT BY WESTERN
HEAD AS EARL WAS MAKING LANDFALL.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
WILL SPREAD OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEAR THE COASTS...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER
NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 
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