Tropical Storm Earl Over Nova Scotia & PEI Update 4

WOCN31 CWHX 041800
Tropical storm Earl information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.35 PM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 6.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
46.0 N and longitude 63.2 W... About 15 nautical miles or 35 km
South of Charlottetown . Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 966 MB. Earl is
Moving north northeast at 40 knots... 74 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  3.00 PM  46.0N  63.2W   966   55  102
Sep 05  3.00 AM  52.7N  56.4W   975   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  55.3N  55.0W   985   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  57.4N  56.5W   990   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  58.8N  59.3W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 AM  60.0N  61.5W   993   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 PM  59.8N  63.0W   995   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 AM  62.4N  65.9W   997   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 PM  63.6N  68.1W   999   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 AM  64.8N  70.3W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 PM  66.0N  72.5W  1003   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

 Earl made landfall as a category one hurrricane in Nova Scotia
Near the Shelburne Queens counties boundary ... About 85 km
Southwest of Lunenburg ... Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 Peak winds of hurricane force were received from numerous observing 
sites within the Halifax regional municipality and harbour with a 
maximum of 130 km/h reported from McNabs Island. Beaver Island 
reported 135 km/h peak winds at 1PM ADT. Halifax international 
airport gusted to 120 km/h for two consecutive hours. Ns power 
reported well over one hundred thousand customers lost power.

 The highest winds for Eastern Prince Edward Island will be
Occurring for the next few hours. Gales are now expected to brush 
along Western Newfoundland this evening and wind warnings will
Follow for those areas.

 Rainfall amounts varied from less than 25 mm along the Atlantic 
coast of Nova Scotia to 35-45 mm for portions of Western Nova Scotia 
and in New Brunswick where rain was enhanced ahead of an approaching 
cold front.

Hurricane watch in effect for Eastern Halifax county and Guysborough
County.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for central and eastern 
mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. Tropical storm warnings also
In effect for central and eastern p.I.E. And the magdelan islands. 
Some of these warnings may be ended within a few hours.

The tides are running low (neap) ... And combined with the storm 
arrival near daily low tide the threat of storm surge damage is low. 
Halifax harbour reported a surge of 1.2 metres and Northumberland
Strait averaged 0.8 m ... All without impact because of the low tide.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

 Peak marine winds reported included 64 knots at buoy b44024 in
West Scotian Slope and 66 knots at the Halifax harbour buoy. The
West Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant wave 
heights at 11 AM ADT.

 All hurricane force wind warnings have ended. Storm and gale force 
wind warnings remain in effect for many maritime and Western
Newfoundland waters.

High waves and pounding surf can be expected primarily along south 
and southeast facing coastlines.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis Earl is well inland now and we are fixing positions from
hourly
Land station data. Hurricane force gusts continue being reported 
along the Atlantic coast well to the southeast of the storm centre.

 The cloud shield thinned considerably during the late morning and 
early afternoon with public reports of sunny breaks over western
Nova Scotia since the storm passage. Drier air and mostly clear
Skies are pushing into Western Nova Scotia at bulletin time.

B. Prognostic we are using extrapolation for the next 6-8 hours and
then merge
The solution with the previous medium and longer range solution.
The storm should maintain forward motion of about 40 kts and then 
slow prior to turning left tonight and Sunday over Labrador. The 
early track guidance still maintains a bit of a bifurcation in the 
solution set so we have chosen to not mmake big changes at this time. 
Having said that the majority of solutions are for the storm centre
To continue east into the Atlantic ... So our solution may be
On the pessimistic side for Newfoundland and Labrador waters.

C. Public weather
We should be near the end of hurricane force gusts as the storm
Both weakens and transitions. The heaviest rains may still lie
Ahead for portions of New Brunswick as the back edge of the 
deformation field pushes in.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
04/18Z  220 220 120  60    90 120  60   0     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  270 300 220  90    60  60  30   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  300 300 220 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  270 270 220 150     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  220 220 220 180     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  180 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/18Z  140 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  100 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/18Z   60 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/06Z   20 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/18Z    0 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

End bowyer/fogarty

WOCN31 CWHX 041500
Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued by
The Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 11.49 AM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

 At 12 noon ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
44.5 N and longitude 64.2 W... Near Chester Nova Scotia.

 Earl began rapid acceleration this morning and is now moving
Northeast at 40 knots ... 74 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 60 knots... 111 km/h and central pressure at 960 MB. 
Earl is now a strong tropical storm which began the transition to
A post-tropical storm in the last couple of hours.

 Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia near the Shelburne Queens
Counties boundary ... About 85 km southwest of Lunenburg ...
Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 There is conflicting information as to whether Earl was a strong 
tropical storm or a hurricane at landfall. These details will be
Sorted out in a post-storm analysis ... However the difference 
between the two is only 8 km/h in terms of maximum wind speeds which 
is easily within meteorological observation errors.

The following peak wind reports were received:

Baccaro Point 102 km/h ... 8 AM ADT
Western Head 98 km/h ... 10 AM ADT
Lunenburg 111 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Obsborne head 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
McNabs Island 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Bedford Basin 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Halifax airport 111 km/h ... 11.43 AM ADT
Beaver Island 104 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Browns Bank buoy ... 100 km/h
West Scotian Slope buoy ... 119 km/h.

The west Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant
Wave heights at 11 AM ADT.

Reports received of more than 70 thousand customers with power 
outages.

 Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End bowyer/fogarty

WOCN31 CWHX 041200
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Saturday
04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 12.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 42.8 N
And longitude 65.8 W... About 60 nautical miles or 115 km south 
southeast of Yarmouth . Maximum sustained winds are estimated at
65 knots... 120 km/h... And central pressure at 965 MB. Earl is
Moving northeast at 28 knots... 52 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  9.00 AM  42.8N  65.8W   965   65  120
Sep 04  3.00 PM  45.3N  63.4W   970   55  102 transitioning
Sep 04  9.00 PM  47.9N  61.1W   977   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 AM  50.0N  59.1W   982   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 AM  51.9N  56.6W   988   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  53.6N  55.0W   990   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 PM  55.4N  53.5W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  57.0N  55.9W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 AM  58.2N  57.9W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  58.8N  59.3W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 PM  59.4N  60.4W   992   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

Earl is expected to make landfall in Southern Nova Scotia in the
Next few hours ... Or brush right along the coast and make landfall 
in Lunenburg or Halifax county closer to noon.

Hurricane watches are in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens, 
Shelburne, Yarmouth and Guysborough counties of Nova Scotia.
Tropical storm warnings are continued for all of mainland Nova
Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la 
Madeleine and Southeast New Brunswick.

These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind 
warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed
Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come 
down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power 
failures. There could also be some damage to signage, roofing 
materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a 
concern which could exacerbate these impacts.

A tropical storm watch is continued for Kent County and
Kouchibouguac National Park.

Heavy rain has been falling over Southwestern Nova Scotia for many 
hours and rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the 
Maritimes with either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates.

Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to 
some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure, although the tides 
are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane warnings are continued for Lurcher and Browns Bank.
Gale or storm warnings are continued for most other portions of
The maritime marine district. Gale warnings are continued for
Western Newfoundland waters.

Storm force winds arrived at the Browns Bank buoy at 6AM ADT and the 
west Scotian Slope buoy at 7AM ADT. Gale force gusts started being 
reported from Baccaro Point at 6AM ADT.

With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can be
Expected primarily along south and southeast facing coastlines.

The threat of storm surge flooding is low for regions around
The Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge 
threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia, and the southern gulf
Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis
Earlier aircraft reconnaissance showed winds below hurricane
Strength although the storm retains a clear satellite eye signature. 
Ir goes imagery shows a reorganization off the core with an eye. 
Composite radar has captured a closed circulation moving into 
Southwestern Nova Scotia.

Buoy b44024 reported 54 kts at 10Z with MSLP 969 MB with pressure 
dropping rapidly. 11Z report from b44024 showed storm centre just 
passing the buoy in the previous hour with a pressure report of
967 MB and 50 KT southwest winds ... So we fix MSLP of Earl at 965 
MB. Buoy b44150 reported 11Z Max winds of 50 kts. This combined with 
satellite interpretation provides our rationale for maintaining
Earl as a marginal hurricane.

B. Prognostic
Short-term extrapolation shows the centre of Earl coming in near
The boundary between Lunenburg and Halifax counties. Beyond that 
early track guidance is much more divergent than it was a day ago
... With a split in solutions. Accordingly our confidence in the 
forecast track beyond 36 hours is low.

C. Public weather
Ascat satellite wind derivations show the distortion of wind
Fields has taken place with the strongest band in its
Southeastern sector. So far, satellite imagery of the spiral
Warm topped convection implies that rain band structure may
Dominate upon landfall. Hence over 25 mm an hour heavy downpours
Are expected. We should shortly see the area of
Precipitation evolve such that the heaviest rain moves toward
The left side of the storm and nudge toward a cold front
Approaching from the west. Some computer model runs
Still show a band of rain extending east of the storm
Into Newfoundland as Earl nears, similar to a warm front
Development.

Regarding rainfall potential, for a storm of this nature, 2500 
divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for 
rainfalls associated with the storm core.  That roughly equates to
40 to 70 mm potential.  These amounts are generally in line with
The output of latest dynamical models.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
04/12Z  210 210 150  90   120 120  75  60     0  20   0   0
04/18Z  220 220 150  90   100 120  60  60     0   0   0   0
05/00Z  240 240 210  90    90  90  60  30     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  270 300 300  90    60  60  30  30     0   0   0   0
05/12Z  300 300 300  90     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  300 300 300 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/00Z  300 300 300 150     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  270 270 270 180     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/12Z  240 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  220 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/00Z  200 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

End campbell/fogarty/bowyer

WOCN31 CWHX 040900
Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the 
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 6.00 AM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 AM ADT

 At 6.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude
41.7 N and longitude 67.2 W... About 110 nautical miles or
135 km south southwest of Yarmouth.

 Earl is moving towards the north-northeastward at 25 knots... 46
Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120
Km/h and central pressure at 965 MB.

 Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End campbell