Tropical Storm Nicole forms then dissipates south of Florida, remnants still a threat to this region

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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010

500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...NICOLE DISSIPATES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...LARGE AREA OF

HEAVY RAINS PERSISTS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...24.5N 80.0W

ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF HAVANA CUBA

ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM W OF NASSAU

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF CUBA...GRAND CAYMAN...AND THE BAHAMAS HAVE

DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF

NICOLE HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM NICOLE HAS DISSIPATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST. THE REMNANTS OF

NICOLE WERE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19

KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE SHOULD

GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST

U.S. COAST TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF

5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN

CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS

TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY

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THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NICOLE HAS DISSIPATED...THE

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC IS ISSUING

STORM SUMMARIES ON THE DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDSCCNS5 AND WMO HEADER ACUS45 KWBC. ADDITIONAL

INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO

HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

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FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6


NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010


500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010






SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF


NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...


WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND


THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND


ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN


EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES


TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF


NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE


UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.






HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO


CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE


CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL


12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED




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FORECASTER BROWN




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