Tropical Storm Earl Over Newfoundland Island Update 1

000
WTNT32 KNHC 042337
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...EARL RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.4N 60.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF CAPE WHITTLE QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...75 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NOVA SCOTIA FROM POINT TUPPER AROUND CAPE BRETON TO BRULE
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA TO LOWER
DARNLEY
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO WESTWARD TO BOAT HARBOUR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 250 MILES...400 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER EXTREME
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

WOCN31 CWHX 0500

Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.30 PM NDT Saturday
04 September 2010.

...Tropical storm Earl weakening as it crosses gulf waters...

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 AM NDT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.30 PM NDT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
50.0 N and longitude 58.9 W... About 50 nautical miles or 95 km
West southwest of daniels harbour . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 972
MB. Earl is moving north northeast at 32 knots... 59 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  9.00 PM  50.0N  58.9W   972   55  102 transitioning
Sep 05  3.00 AM  52.7N  56.3W   975   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 AM  54.1N  54.5W   980   45   83 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  55.1N  52.6W   985   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 05  9.00 PM  55.5N  50.7W   990   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  55.2N  48.9W   992   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 AM  55.0N  47.1W   994   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  55.0N  45.4W   995   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  9.00 PM  54.9N  43.8W   996   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 AM  54.8N  42.0W   998   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  9.00 AM  54.7N  40.1W   999   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for western and
Southwestern Newfoundland.


4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Gale and storm warnings are in effect for northeastern areas of the 
Maritimes marine district. Gale warnings are also in effect for 
portions of the Newfoundland marine district. Given the shift
In the track of Earl additional gales may be required.


5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
The centre of Earl has been analyzed from surface data through
The southern gulf of st.Lawrence. All convection has eroded on the 
south side of the storm and wind reports in excess of 60 knots are 
gone: so we hold it at 55 kts for the initial strength although
It may be a bit high.

B. Prognostic
The rapid translation speed of Saturday afternoon should slow down
As it passes into Southeastern Labrador in the first 6 hours and
Then we follow an average solution of the various models. This is all 
ahead of an approaching upper low and expecting the storm to fall 
under much weaker flow which eventually directs the storm to the 
east. This makes for a significant shift in forecast track: we no 
longer take it into the Labrador Sea but rather continue it
Eastward into the open Atlantic.


C. Public weather
Still a moderate to heavy band of rain affecting western areas of 
Newfoundland. Given the fast forward speed of Earl conditions
Should improve later tonight.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
05/00Z  250 250 250 250   150 150 150 150     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  250 250 250 250   150 150 150 150     0   0   0   0
05/12Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/00Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/12Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/00Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/12Z  250 250 250 250     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


End bowyer/fogarty/March

WOCN31 CWHX 042100
Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued
By the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at
5.50 PM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

At 6.00 PM ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
47.8 N and longitude 61.7 W... About 20 nautical miles or 40 km
North of iles de la Madeleine.

Earl is moving towards the north northeast at 45 knots... 83
Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 55 knots... 102
Km/h and central pressure at 970 MB.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

Here is a brief recap of what has occured so far.

Peak winds over 100 km/h up to 5PM ADT ...

   Km/h
Beaver Island  135
McNabs Island  130
Obsborne head  128
Halifax harbour buoy 122
Halifax airport  120
West Scotian Slope buoy 119
Shearwater jetty 117
Bedford Basin  115
St. Paul island  113
Lunenburg  111
Antigonish Harbour 110
Halifax dockyard 109
Hart Island  109
Caribou Point  108
Grand Etang  115
Baccaro Point  102
Port Hawkesbury  100
Browns Bank buoy 100

Notable rainfall amounts up to 5PM ADT ...
New Brunswick ... The combination of Earl's rainfall enhanced by an 
approaching cold front brought 40-75 mm through western NB.

Nova Scotia ... Annapolis Valley through Southern Colchester
Counties received 40-50 mm especially in the interior.

Prince Edward Island ... Much of the island received 25-30 mm.

Wave reports during the day suggest that 10-14 m significant wave 
heights may have washed along much of the Atlantic shore of nova
Scotia this afternoon ... With peak waves arriving well after the 
storm centre.

End bowyer/fogarty

WOCN31 CWHX 041800
Tropical storm Earl information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2.35 PM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 6.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
46.0 N and longitude 63.2 W... About 15 nautical miles or 35 km
South of Charlottetown . Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 55 knots... 102 km/h... And central pressure at 966 MB. Earl is
Moving north northeast at 40 knots... 74 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 04  3.00 PM  46.0N  63.2W   966   55  102
Sep 05  3.00 AM  52.7N  56.4W   975   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 05  3.00 PM  55.3N  55.0W   985   40   74 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 AM  57.4N  56.5W   990   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 06  3.00 PM  58.8N  59.3W   991   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 AM  60.0N  61.5W   993   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 07  3.00 PM  59.8N  63.0W   995   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 AM  62.4N  65.9W   997   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 08  3.00 PM  63.6N  68.1W   999   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 AM  64.8N  70.3W  1001   35   65 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 PM  66.0N  72.5W  1003   35   65 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

 Earl made landfall as a category one hurrricane in Nova Scotia
Near the Shelburne Queens counties boundary ... About 85 km
Southwest of Lunenburg ... Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 Peak winds of hurricane force were received from numerous observing 
sites within the Halifax regional municipality and harbour with a 
maximum of 130 km/h reported from McNabs Island. Beaver Island 
reported 135 km/h peak winds at 1PM ADT. Halifax international 
airport gusted to 120 km/h for two consecutive hours. Ns power 
reported well over one hundred thousand customers lost power.

 The highest winds for Eastern Prince Edward Island will be
Occurring for the next few hours. Gales are now expected to brush 
along Western Newfoundland this evening and wind warnings will
Follow for those areas.

 Rainfall amounts varied from less than 25 mm along the Atlantic 
coast of Nova Scotia to 35-45 mm for portions of Western Nova Scotia 
and in New Brunswick where rain was enhanced ahead of an approaching 
cold front.

Hurricane watch in effect for Eastern Halifax county and Guysborough
County.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for central and eastern 
mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton. Tropical storm warnings also
In effect for central and eastern p.I.E. And the magdelan islands. 
Some of these warnings may be ended within a few hours.

The tides are running low (neap) ... And combined with the storm 
arrival near daily low tide the threat of storm surge damage is low. 
Halifax harbour reported a surge of 1.2 metres and Northumberland
Strait averaged 0.8 m ... All without impact because of the low tide.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

 Peak marine winds reported included 64 knots at buoy b44024 in
West Scotian Slope and 66 knots at the Halifax harbour buoy. The
West Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant wave 
heights at 11 AM ADT.

 All hurricane force wind warnings have ended. Storm and gale force 
wind warnings remain in effect for many maritime and Western
Newfoundland waters.

High waves and pounding surf can be expected primarily along south 
and southeast facing coastlines.

5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists

A. Analysis Earl is well inland now and we are fixing positions from
hourly
Land station data. Hurricane force gusts continue being reported 
along the Atlantic coast well to the southeast of the storm centre.

 The cloud shield thinned considerably during the late morning and 
early afternoon with public reports of sunny breaks over western
Nova Scotia since the storm passage. Drier air and mostly clear
Skies are pushing into Western Nova Scotia at bulletin time.

B. Prognostic we are using extrapolation for the next 6-8 hours and
then merge
The solution with the previous medium and longer range solution.
The storm should maintain forward motion of about 40 kts and then 
slow prior to turning left tonight and Sunday over Labrador. The 
early track guidance still maintains a bit of a bifurcation in the 
solution set so we have chosen to not mmake big changes at this time. 
Having said that the majority of solutions are for the storm centre
To continue east into the Atlantic ... So our solution may be
On the pessimistic side for Newfoundland and Labrador waters.

C. Public weather
We should be near the end of hurricane force gusts as the storm
Both weakens and transitions. The heaviest rains may still lie
Ahead for portions of New Brunswick as the back edge of the 
deformation field pushes in.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         Ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw    ne  se  sw  nw
04/18Z  220 220 120  60    90 120  60   0     0   0   0   0
05/06Z  270 300 220  90    60  60  30   0     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  300 300 220 120     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/06Z  270 270 220 150     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
06/18Z  220 220 220 180     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/06Z  180 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
07/18Z  140 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  100 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
08/18Z   60 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/06Z   20 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
09/18Z    0 220 220 200     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

End bowyer/fogarty

WOCN31 CWHX 041500
Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued by
The Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 11.49 AM ADT 
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

 At 12 noon ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
44.5 N and longitude 64.2 W... Near Chester Nova Scotia.

 Earl began rapid acceleration this morning and is now moving
Northeast at 40 knots ... 74 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 60 knots... 111 km/h and central pressure at 960 MB. 
Earl is now a strong tropical storm which began the transition to
A post-tropical storm in the last couple of hours.

 Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia near the Shelburne Queens
Counties boundary ... About 85 km southwest of Lunenburg ...
Around 10:30 AM ADT.

 There is conflicting information as to whether Earl was a strong 
tropical storm or a hurricane at landfall. These details will be
Sorted out in a post-storm analysis ... However the difference 
between the two is only 8 km/h in terms of maximum wind speeds which 
is easily within meteorological observation errors.

The following peak wind reports were received:

Baccaro Point 102 km/h ... 8 AM ADT
Western Head 98 km/h ... 10 AM ADT
Lunenburg 111 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Obsborne head 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
McNabs Island 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Bedford Basin 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Halifax airport 111 km/h ... 11.43 AM ADT
Beaver Island 104 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Browns Bank buoy ... 100 km/h
West Scotian Slope buoy ... 119 km/h.

The west Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant
Wave heights at 11 AM ADT.

Reports received of more than 70 thousand customers with power 
outages.

 Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End bowyer/fogarty