The Demise of Earl

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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE WIND FIELD OF EARL HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW WELL REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER.  DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH EARL HAS BEEN ENTRAINED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  ALSO...THE EASTERN PORTION OF EARL/S
CIRCULATION IS NOW INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  BASED ON ALL
OF THIS...EARL IS NOW DECLARED POST-TROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EARL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS EARL
COMPLETES THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND IS NOW 030/40.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
POST-TROPICAL EARL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LABRADOR AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  EARL WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES A
VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE CYCLONE BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND DISSIPATING IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
 
EARL IS STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA.  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL IN
CANADA...SEE PRODUCTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 50.7N  59.2W    55 KT...POST-TROPICAL 
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 52.9N  55.4W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 55.0N  52.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  53.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 57.0N  55.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 54.0N  50.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 52.0N  36.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
...EARL BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT RACES ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SW OF MARYS HARBOUR LABRADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NOVA
SCOTIA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BOAT HARBOUR
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. 
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL STORM EARL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST.  EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR.  THIS
MOTION WILL BRING EARL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT.  A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS NOW POST-TROPICAL...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
 
RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT OVER
THE REGION.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EARL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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