Remembrance Day Storm Update Five

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111445
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1100 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SEAN WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE SEAN IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 111445
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      AL192011
1100 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011

SEAN IS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 70 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE SHRINKING DENSE
OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DECREASED... AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. A COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY SITUATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST OF
SEAN...IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY CAUSING IT
TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THEN.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS GAINING FORWARD SPEED...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/20. THE CENTER OF SEAN IS CURRENTLY PASSING
JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC UNTIL IT DISSIPATES TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 34.0N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 37.2N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
10:50 AM AST Friday 11 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick continued

An additional rainfall amounts of up to 30 mm expected today.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is occurring. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Heavy rain will continue over most of New Brunswick today as a strong cold front moves across the region. Very mild air ahead of the front will be replaced with colder air behind it. In Northwestern New Brunswick the showers are forecast to change to or mixed with flurries later this afternoon.

Additionally..Higher than normal water levels are expected along the Northumberland strait early this evening.

Queens County P.E.I.
10:50 AM AST Friday 11 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Queens County P.E.I. continued

Additional rainfall amounts of 30 overnight to 40 millimetres by tonight.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A trough of low pressure extending from Northern Quebec through New Brunswick and Southwestern Nova Scotia will continue to slowly move east across the region today. Additional rainfall amounts of 30 to 40 millimetres are forecast for the island today before tapering off to showers this evening. Strong southeast winds from this system are expected this afternoon over eastern areas with gusts to 80 km/h currently forecast.

Additionally..Higher than normal water levels and rough surf are expected along the Northumberland strait this evening and overnight.