Hurricane Dorian (Category One) nears landfall in Nova Scotia

10:31 AM ADT Saturday 07 September 2019
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Heavy rain associated with Hurricane Dorian has already started over southern New Brunswick, and it will move into other regions of the province by early this afternoon.

Total rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm are expected over parts of southern and eastern New Brunswick before the rain ends overnight or Sunday morning. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected over southeastern New Brunswick.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. If visibility is reduced while driving, turn on your lights and maintain a safe following distance. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

10:13 AM ADT Saturday 07 September 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:

Edmundston and Madawaska County
Weather Summary for Hurricane Dorian

Storm Surge...
Large waves and Storm Surge Warning levels are expected to impact eastern Gulf waters including the north coastlines of PEI, Antigonish and western Cape Breton.

Higher than normal water levels can also be expected tonight along the Acadian coastline of New Brunswick Miramichi and South. Then along the Northumberland Strait of Nova Scotia through to Pictou County.

Along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia large waves and rough pounding surf will affect the coast this afternoon and tonight.

Wind...
Strong winds are expected to spread out some distance from Hurricane Dorian. Hurricane force winds are expected along the Atlantic Coast and eastern half of Nova Scotia with gusts to 120 km/hr and as high as 150 km/hr along parts of the coast.

Warning level winds left of Dorian's track will cover the remaining parts of Nova Scotia, all of Prince Edward Island, southeast New Brunswick and the Magdalen Islands with gusts as high as 110 km/hr.

Rainfall...
Significant Rainfall can be expected for: western, central and northern parts of Nova Scotia; most of New Brunswick; and western half of Prince Edward Island. Rainfall amounts of 50 mm to 100 mm are forecast with the highest amounts possibly exceeding 150 mm.

As of 9 AM ADT Hurricane Dorian is located about 540 kilometres southwest of Halifax and is expected to make landfall this evening. Rain has begun over southern New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia and is expected to intensify during the day. Winds are gusting over 80 km/hr over southwestern Nova Scotia and will continue to spread northward during the day and into the evening.

For more detailed information refer to the Warnings and the Tropical cyclone information statement at https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

8:27 AM ADT Saturday 07 September 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Acadian Peninsula
Fredericton and Southern York County
Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Miramichi and area
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Newfoundland and Labrador:

Cartwright to Black Tickle
Eagle River
Newfoundland
Norman Bay to Lodge Bay
Red Bay to L'Anse-au-Clair
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Anticosti
Blanc-Sablon
Chevery
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
For Hurricane Dorian.

The next intermediate statement will be issued at 12:00 p.m. ADT.
Followed by the full information statement issued at 03:00 p.m. ADT.

The outer rain bands of Hurricane Dorian are now affecting the southern maritimes as it continues to accelerate toward Nova Scotia, making landfall this evening near Halifax. Severe winds and heavy rain are in store for parts of Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 a.m. ADT.

Location: 40.7 North 66.4 West.

About: 542 kilometres southwest of Halifax.

Maximum sustained winds: 148 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: northeast at 41 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 961 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the south shore, central and eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland. Hurricane Watches are in effect for eastern Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, western and northern Nova Scotia, parts of northern and southwestern Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands and parts of Quebec's Lower North Shore.

The latest forecast guidance shows the track of Hurricane Dorian approaching Nova Scotia this morning, passing near Halifax this evening, east of Prince Edward Island around midnight, and then over the eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters or western Newfoundland by Sunday morning.

Severe winds and torrential rain will have major impacts for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands and the Quebec's Lower North Shore. Large waves are expected for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and for eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, storm surge, combined with large waves and pounding surf, may give flooding for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands, and parts of the Quebec's Lower North Shore.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience tropical storm force winds of 90 to 110 km/h, beginning over southwestern Nova Scotia this morning, in the afternoon over eastern Nova Scotia, and towards evening for Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland. Near and to the south of the forecast track, winds will reach hurricane force of 120 km/h or more. Behind the storm, winds will reach hurricane force northwesterlies. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, causing broken branches and tree falls, resulting in power outages, blocking of roads, and other type of damages.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the south shore, central and eastern Nova Scotia, and a hurricane watch is in effect for eastern Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands. Tropical storm wind warnings are in effect for western and northern Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, northern and southwestern Newfoundland, and parts of the Lower North Shore Quebec.

b. Rainfall.

Rain bands ahead of the centre of Dorian have reached Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick and will continue to spread northeastward this morning. Rainfall will be a major factor as torrential rain will lead to flooding in some areas. Widespread rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm are expected over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands. Maximum amounts are likely over western Nova Scotia where 100 to 200 mm are expected. Some districts have received large quantities of rain last week, and with the soil moisture still very high, excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential. This combined with the severe winds will result in damage due to falling trees.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for Nova Scotia, western Prince Edward Island, most of New Brunswick stretching from the southwest towards the Gaspesie, and parts of the Lower North Shore Quebec.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Waves of 7 to 10 metres will reach the Southwestern Shore of Nova Scotia during the day and spread to the Eastern Shore tonight. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Sunday morning with waves nearing 12 metres. Waves of 4 to 7 metres will impact north facing coasts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Note that waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Please exercise extreme caution.

Storm surge is an issue, for the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, the north coast of Prince Edward Island, southwestern Newfoundland, the Magdalen Islands, and Quebec's Lower North Shore. Current guidance suggests water levels approaching inundation levels during high tide. However, when combined with rough and pounding surf, there may be flooding and overwash of waves.

Storm surge warnings are in effect for the north shore of Prince Edward Island, western Cape Breton, the Magdalen Islands, Quebec's Lower Quebec North Shore, and Anticosti Island.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

As Dorian continues to move into our waters, it will spread hurricane force southeasterlies near and south of its track, over offshore Canadian waters. As the hurricane moves further into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will develop behind it. Waves of 10 to 15 metres are expected south of the storm track, beginning late today over southwestern waters and approaching the south coast of Newfoundland Sunday morning. As the low continues east Sunday into Monday, waves of 4 to 7 metres will develop over eastern waters, and for the southwestern Grand Banks will build to 5 to 10 metres.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for most Atlantic waters, storm warnings are in effect for other waters in the Maritimes. For Newfoundland, hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters, storm force warnings for the southwest and northeast coasts, and the strait of Belle Isle. Gale warnings are in effect for the remaining waters.

Forecasters: Couturier/McArthur/March

FXCN31 CWHX 071200
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.32 AM ADT
Saturday 07 September 2019.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT, hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 40.7 N and
longitude 66.4 W, about 269 nautical miles or 498 km south-southwest
of Halifax (Shearwater). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 80
knots (148 km/h) and central pressure at 961 MB. Dorian is moving
northeast at 22 knots (41 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 07  9.00 AM  40.7N  66.4W   961   80  148
Sep 07  3.00 PM  42.2N  65.6W   960   80  148
Sep 08  3.00 AM  46.5N  61.9W   960   70  130
Sep 08  3.00 PM  50.3N  57.7W   962   65  120 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 AM  53.1N  52.0W   967   50   93 post-tropical
Sep 09  3.00 PM  55.3N  45.9W   975   40   74 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

The appearance of Dorian on satellite imagery has changed
considerably with the convection now displaced to the northeast of
the centre as the hurricane continues to encounter increasing shear.
Some of the moisture is now drawn into to an advancing upper trough
which extends from James Bay to Western Quebec into Northern New
England.  West of the centre of Dorian, buoy 44008 is reporting a
wind gust of 68 knots which converted to a 1 minute mean gives a
speed of 75KT. A buoy near Georges Bank is indicating wind speeds
approaching hurricane force. The wind field continues to expand and
gales are spreading well to the north of the centre and are now
reaching Cape Sable Nova Scotia, where Baccaro Point recently
reported a wind gust of 41 knots. The intial intensity is set at 80KT
with a forward motion of northeast at 22 kts.

B. Prognostic

Dorian will continue to interact with the upper trough approaching
from Southern Quebec. Although the system may start to gain
extra-tropical characteristics prior to landfall, the centre is not
expected to fully transition until this evening when it crosses Nova
Scotia and moves into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The track keeps the
centre over relatively warm waters until this afternoon when it
reaches the Northern West Scotian Slope.

The guidance remains well clustered with the track nearing Halifax
this evening. The low will then curve into the Northern Gulf of St.
Lawrence and then be ejected east in the brisk westerly upper flow
northeast of Newfoundland.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
07/12Z  260 275 200 165   110 145  95  90    50  65  55  45
07/18Z  265 280 205 170   110 160 100  90    45  70  55  55
08/06Z  270 280 215 190   105 160  95  90    40  60  45  45
08/18Z  255 270 225 195    85 125  80  85    35  45  35  30
09/06Z  225 260 225 195    70  95  60  75     0   0   0   0
09/18Z  210 255 245 190     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/COUTURIER/MARCH/MCARTHUR

000
WTNT35 KNHC 071147
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 56A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 67.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 310 MI...255 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 67.0 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England this morning, and then move across Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds.  Thereafter,
Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over
eastern Canada by tonight or early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).  A NOAA buoy at Nantucket Shoals, Massachusetts,
recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) and a gust
of 80 mph (129 km/h).  A Weatherflow station at Sagamore Beach,
Massachusetts, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h)
and a gust of 51 mph (82 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts
during the next few hours.  These conditions should spread into
the warning area in Maine by this afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 3
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF:  Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days.  Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven