Elsa Becomes Extratropical North Of Cape Cod

000

WTNT35 KNHC 092042

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN

DISCONTINUED...

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST 

US THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS

ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S.

coast have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa 

was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The 

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 

km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an 

increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the 

forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore 

the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The 

system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and 

Saturday.

Surface observations during the past several hours indicate 

that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with 

higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple 

of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by 

Sunday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New 

England coast during the next couple of hours.  The post-tropical 

cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of 

Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated

totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could

result in considerable flash and urban flooding.  Isolated minor to

moderate river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,

please visit the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 

Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be 

found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 

under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 

ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$

Forecaster Zelinsky

637 

WTNT45 KNHC 092042

TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep 

convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that 

a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those 

reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. 

Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were 

reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby 

waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 

45 kt. 

Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with 

an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward 

motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains 

embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was 

made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates 

that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The 

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open 

into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in 

the NHC forecast. 

It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of 

Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and 

again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). 

Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will 

be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted 

that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or 

timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed 

from the cyclone's center.

Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm 

warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory.  

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 

Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS 

header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 

ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy 

rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New 

England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical 

cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of 

Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 43.0N  69.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  10/0600Z 46.2N  64.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  10/1800Z 50.3N  56.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  11/0600Z 54.7N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Zelinsky

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

350 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MEZ006-011-015>017-029>032-100415-

/O.CON.KCAR.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210710T1200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior

Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Orono, Perry, Howland, Danforth, Calais,

Old Town, Grand Lake Stream, Springfield, Eastport, Castine,

Aurora, Sherman, Guilford, Bar Harbor, Wesley, Orland,

Cherryfield, Lincoln, Smyrna Mills, Houlton, Princeton, Hodgdon,

Machias, Dedham, Bangor, Great Pond, Eastbrook, Vanceboro,

Dover-Foxcroft, Topsfield, Brewer, Bucksport, Amherst, Milo, and

Ellsworth

350 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far Eastern,

  Interior DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine., including the

  following areas, in Central Highlands Maine, Southern Piscataquis.

  In Coastal DownEast Maine, Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington.

  In Far Eastern Maine, Northern Washington and Southeast Aroostook.

  In Interior DownEast Maine, Central Washington and Interior

  Hancock. In Penobscot Valley Maine, Central Penobscot and Southern

  Penobscot.

* Through Saturday morning.

* Tropical moisture will bring very heavy rainfall to the

  region.

* Heavy rainfall rates will persist through the evening and early

  morning hours of Saturday. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 1

  inch per hour at times through the evening. Widespread rain totals

  of 2 to 3.5 inches are expected through the remainder of the

  afternoon into early Saturday. Locally higher totals are also

  expected. These rainfall totals and rain rates could lead to flash

  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action

should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Norcross

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Gray ME

250 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MEZ012>014-018>028-033-100300-

/O.CON.KGYX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210710T1200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-

Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal

Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-

Including the cities of Bridgton, Jay, Alna, Bremen, Cape

Elizabeth, Minot, Biddeford, Brunswick, Brooks, Newcastle,

Bowdoin, Morrill, Augusta, Skowhegan, Gorham, New Sharon,

Topsham, Knox, New Gloucester, New Vineyard, Saco, Sabattus,

Camden, Rockport, Windsor, Embden, Jackson, Wilton, Arrowsic,

Chesterville, Alfred, Auburn, Norway, South Portland, Appleton,

Pittsfield, Northport, Livermore Falls, Rockland, Montville,

China, Cornville, Gray, Locke Mills, Greene, Damariscotta,

Lincolnville, Madison, Phippsburg, Whitefield, Limington,

Bowdoinham, Vassalboro, North Windham, Sanford, Belfast, Sidney,

Bryant Pond, Fryeburg, Wales, Temple, Bethel, Farmington,

Kittery, Palermo, Waldo, Yarmouth, Liberty, Westbrook, Lewiston,

Old Orchard Beach, Lebanon, Unity, Bath, Harrison, Palmyra,

Rumford, Winterport, Waterville, Athens, Goodwins Mills,

Thomaston, Buxton, Naples, Hope, Dresden, Oxford, Berwick,

Milton, Hanover, Newry, Waldoboro, Hollis, Bristol, Turner, Owls

Head, Boothbay Harbor, Searsmont, Portland, and Wiscasset

250 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine, including

  the following areas, in Maine, Central Interior Cumberland. In

  south central Maine, Coastal Waldo, Interior Waldo, Kennebec,

  Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc and Southern Somerset. In southwest

  Maine, Androscoggin, Coastal Cumberland, Coastal York and Interior

  York. In western Maine, Interior Cumberland Highlands, Southern

  Franklin and Southern Oxford.

* Through Saturday morning.

* Tropical moisture will bring showers with very heavy rainfall to

  the region.

* Some areas may experience rainfall rates in excess of 2 inch per

  hour for more than one hour leading to the threat of flash

  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action

should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$