Major (Category 4) Hurricane Earl Moving Northof the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas Update 4

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 69.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...235 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 835 MI...1545 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST.  EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
 
EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN

Humidex and Health Advisory Issued for New Brunswick

WOCN14 CWHX 311906
Special weather statement for regions of New Brunswick issued jointly 
by Environment Canada and the New Brunswick department of health at 
3:35 PM ADT Tuesday 31 August 2010.

Humidex and health advisory in effecy for:

Acadian Peninsula
Bathurst and Chaleur Region
Campbellton and Restigouche County
Edmunston and Madawaska county
Mount Carleton - Renous Highway
Grand Falls and Victoria County
Woodstock and Carleton County
Miramichi and area
Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area
Kouchibouguac National Park
Kent County
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Grand Lake and Queens County
Oromocto and Sunbury County
Fredericton and Southern York County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Sussex/Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County.

Humidex values of near 40 c will develop by Wednesday afternoon and 
moderate Wednesday evening.

Further details follow in the next regular public forecast.

The New Brunswick department of health advises the following: the 
department of health recommends that you stay in shaded or air 
conditioned areas as much as possible, drink Plenty of water, wear 
light clothing and take breaks often if you are exercising or working 
outdoors.  Consideration should be given to postpone strenuous 
exercise or work until a cooler time of the day.  Organizers of sport 
and recreational activities should build in regular water breaks and 
consider rescheduling activities.  The elderly, babies and young 
children, or people with heart or lung problems are most at risk of 
serious heat-related illness.  People taking medications, especially 
for mental health conditions, should check with their doctor or 
pharmacist to see if they are more at risk from high temperatures.

END/ASPC

Major (Category 4) Hurricane Earl Moving Towards Turks & Caicos and Bahamas Update 3

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS.
THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL.  THIS SHEAR
IS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER
LOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK
GUIDANCE.  ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW
MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS.

GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 22.0N  68.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.3N  70.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  72.8W   115 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  74.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  75.5W   115 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 36.0N  73.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 44.0N  65.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 56.0N  55.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
 
INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST.  EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

Major (Category 4) Hurricane Earl Moving Towards Turks & Caicos and Bahamas Update 2

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
200 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
...CORE OF HURRICANE EARL PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. 
 
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

First Day the Great Heatwave of Late August/Early September 2010

What could be our warmest period of the entire Summer of 2010 started yesterday. When highs throughout Western & Central New Brunswick reached the lower 30s. C (a minium of 32 C need as a high to register as an official heat wave day, three of which occurring consecutively required for an official heat wave), discounting humidex readings which were in the upper 30s' C. On Wednesday & Thursday highs should peak in the mid to upper 30s C, with humidex readings peaking in the lower to mid-40s C. The heatwave should break late on Friday, or early on Saturday (with a return to normal to slightly above normal conditions) courtesy of the same cold frontal trough that will eventually recurve Hurricane Earl. I will keep you posted on this developing dangerous situation. Listed below is a sampling of reprting stations across Western & Central NB, which recorded heat wave highs yesterday:

 

Historical Data

 

Saint Stephen

Yesterday

 

Max:

33.5°C

Min:

17.0°C

Precip:

0.0 mm

 

 

Normals

 

Max:

22°C

Min:

8°C

 

Today

 

Sunrise:

6:49

Sunset:

20:10

 

Historical Data:

 

Fredericton

Yesterday

 

Max:

32.1°C

Min:

16.2°C

Precip:

0.0 mm

 

 

 Normals

 

Max:

22°C

Min:

8°C

 

Today

 

Sunrise:

6:46

Sunset:

20:08

Historical Data

 

Edmundston

Yesterday

 

Max:

32.6°C

Min:

13.0°C

Precip:

0.0 mm

 

 

Normals

 

Max:

20°C

Min:

8°C

 

Today

 

Sunrise:

6:50

Sunset:

20:17

Major (Category 4) Hurricane Earl Moving Towards Turks & Caicos and Bahamas Update 1

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED
TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE
EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN
AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.
 
EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 21.2N  67.9W   115 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 22.3N  69.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.8N  71.7W   120 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 27.3N  73.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  75.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 43.5N  66.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  57.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
 
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS... 
  

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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