Tropical Storm Elsa A Long-Range Threat To The Region Update One
000
WTNT35 KNHC 050255
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LANDFALL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.
The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Granma and Las Tunas, and the Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued for the provinces of Las Tunas,
Granma, Holquin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Camaguey
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote
River
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after
the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required tonight or early Monday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars
from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.6 North, longitude
79.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach south-central
Cuba late tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across
central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on
Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then
forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba,
followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight
restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida
Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida
Keys by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday
night.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected
through tonight. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides, some of which could be significant.
Across portions of Cuba tonight into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands tonight into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia Monday through
Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor
river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to
receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches
Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash
flooding.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern
Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida
Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT45 KNHC 050258
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021
Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another
convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated
into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has
found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR
surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of
60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those
values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves
owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo
Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center
pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher
intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the
intensity has been increased to 55 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no
significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic
reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical
ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the
northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast
U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC
track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly
packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus
models TVCA and GFEX.
Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed
an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where
cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where
significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the
circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level
outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some
additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which
calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs
along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is
forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind
shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The
official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the
numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity
consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS
statistical-dynamical models.
Key Messages:
1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica
tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides
will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and
Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and
mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy
rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South
Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern
Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread
into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.
3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for
portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical
storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning
as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.
4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula
Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the
Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
Forecaster Stewart
posted by Advackia at 8:27 PM
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