Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 03/27/2024

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FGUS71 KCAR 272004
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MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-032015-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the ninth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,
issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This
outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the one
week period of March 27th through April 4th, 2024.

The potential for Ice Jams is Above Normal across the St. John
and the Allagash River Basins. Ice jam potential is over
for the 2024 season on all other river basins.

The potential for open water flooding is Above Normal across
Downeast, East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and
into Eastern Aroostook County including the Aroostook River Basin.
The potential for open water flooding is Normal across the far
North Woods, St. John, Allagash & Fish River basins in Northern
Maine.

...LAKE ICE THICKNESS...
Ice thickness is extremely variable with recent warm spells
posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless
you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice safety
visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing-
boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be
in graphical format on our website
www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook

$$

Sinko

Long Duration Pre-Easter Storm

















































Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1007 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-280800-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,
Mars Hill, Ashland, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park,
Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket,
East Millinocket, Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman,
Smyrna Mills, Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland,
Springfield, Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst, Aurora,
Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley,
Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Orland, Castine,
Eastport, Perry, Machias, Cherryfield, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo,
Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield
1007 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...Locally Dense Fog Overnight...

Areas of fog will persist overnight. The fog will be locally dense.
Visibilities could change rapidly over short distances and will
be reduced to a quarter mile or less at times. Slow down, maintain
a safe distance between other vehicles and be alert for rapidly
changing visibilities.

$$

Norcross


Flood Watch
National Weather Service Caribou ME
959 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

MEZ011-015>017-029>032-281000-
/O.CON.KCAR.FA.A.0003.240328T1500Z-240330T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central
Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-Southern
Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Bucksport, Great Pond, Guilford, Milo,
Calais, Dover-Foxcroft, Wesley, Topsfield, Bangor, Machias,
Brewer, Aurora, Bar Harbor, Eastbrook, Howland, Perry, Eastport,
Princeton, Old Town, Orono, Dedham, Springfield, Amherst,
Lincoln, Danforth, Vanceboro, Orland, Ellsworth, Cherryfield,
Grand Lake Stream, and Castine
959 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall and snowmelt is
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far
  Eastern, Interior DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine, including
  the following areas, in Central Highlands Maine, Southern
  Piscataquis. In Coastal DownEast Maine, Coastal Hancock and
  Coastal Washington. In Far Eastern Maine, Northern Washington. In
  Interior DownEast Maine, Central Washington and Interior Hancock.
  In Penobscot Valley Maine, Central Penobscot and Southern
  Penobscot.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Rainfall of 2 to 2.5 inches will combine with up to 1.75" of
    snowmelt to cause urban and low lying flooding of poor
    drainage areas. This may also cause small stream and creek
    flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&
$$

TWD


10:22 PM ADT Wednesday 27 March 2024
Prolonged rainfall event forecast this week.

Locations: Northern New Brunswick.

Total rainfall possible: 50 to 80 mm.

Time span: tonight through Friday evening.

Similar storms in the past have caused: 
- hazardous driving conditions from water pooling on roadways
- localized flooding, especially in poor drainage areas
- elevated water levels in creeks and streams.

Remarks: Rainfall rates may exceed 10 mm per hour at times in the heaviest downpours. Do not drive through flooded streets or parking lots. Rainfall warnings may be required.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.


10:20 PM ADT Wednesday 27 March 2024
A prolonged rainfall event is forecast this week. The ground, already near saturation, has little ability to absorb further rainfall.

Locations: western Nova Scotia.

Total possible rainfall: 50 to 80 mm. 

Time span: tonight until Saturday morning.

Similar storms in the past have caused:
- water ponding and pooling on roadways
- road shoulder erosion and washouts.

Remarks: Rainfall rates of 10 mm per hour are possible in the heaviest downpours. If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down and turn on headlights. Rainfall warnings may be required.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.


10:18 PM ADT Wednesday 27 March 2024
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Locations: Central and southern New Brunswick.

Total rainfall: 50 to 80 mm with 100 mm or more possible by Friday evening.

Time span: Tonight until Friday evening or Saturday morning.

Similar storms in the past have caused:
- localized flooding, especially in poor drainage areas
- road shoulder erosion and washouts
- delays and interruptions to transportation networks
- scattered utility outages

Remarks: Rainfall rates of 10 mm per hour may occur over some locations.

The rain will change to snow Friday night or Saturday morning.

Significant runoff is expected to occur as the rain combines with mild temperatures, leading to considerable snowmelt.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
358 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

MEZ007>009-012-013-033-NHZ001>007-009-011-282000-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-
Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Belknap-Cheshire-
358 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Maine, western
Maine, central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern
New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rain Thursday and Thursday
night which will increase the potential for flooding. The best
chance for heavy rain will be along the coast, though the threat may
extend into the foothills depending on storm track.

There is then the potential for some light snow accumulations and
slick travel conditions on the backside of the storm on Friday.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$