Christmas Week Weather Bomb Update One
12:23 AM AST Tuesday 21 December 2021
Special weather statement in effect for:
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Significant rainfall is expected.
Total rainfall: 25 to 40 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.
Maximum wind gusts: possibly greater than 80 km/h.
Locations: Nova Scotia.
Time span: Wednesday ending Thursday morning.
Remarks: Rain is expected to spread from west to east across the province Wednesday. Precipitation may begin as a brief period of snow or freezing rain before changing to rain Wednesday evening over parts of the northern mainland and Cape Breton. Rain may switch to a period of heavy wet snow for a time before ending Thursday morning in some areas making travel difficult. At this time the highest rainfall totals and strongest winds are expected near the Atlantic coast.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.
12:23 AM AST Tuesday 21 December 2021
Special weather statement in effect for:
Queens County P.E.I.
Significant snow, rain and wind is expected.
Total snowfall: Possibly exceeding 15 cm.
Total rainfall: 15 to 25 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.
Maximum wind gusts: possibly exceeding 80 km/h.
Locations: Prince Edward Island
Time span: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Remarks: Snow is expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and may mix with freezing rain before changing to rain Wednesday evening. Rain will likely change back to a period of heavy wet snow Thursday morning in strong west to northwest winds. At this time the highest snowfall totals are expected up west, with the greatest rainfall totals down east. The mixture of precipitation types and strong winds will likely lead to poor travel conditions.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210229
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
929 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit to the southeast overnight. A cold
front will cross the area Tuesday morning followed by high
pressure Tuesday night. Low pressure will strengthen southeast
of the area Wednesday and lift across the Maritimes Wednesday
night. High pressure will build over the area Thursday into
Friday. A warm front will approach the area this weekend.
&&.....
........SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure overhead early Tuesday night will move eastward
after midnight. Expect high temperatures to occur around or
prior to 6z, followed by steady or rising temperatures through
sunrise Wednesday as clouds and winds aloft increase. With fresh
snowpack, some of the cooler valleys of northern Maine should
drop to near or below 0 prior to clouds moving in.
Guidance has trended towards a more amplified northern stream
shortwave trough for Wednesday, which has caused earlier phasing
with the southern stream shortwave along the Eastern Seaboard
and significant increases in snow and QPF amounts among the GFS,
NAM, and European models. This is associated with a stronger
surface low tracking further northwest compared to previous
runs. While not all guidance agrees, confidence is increasing in
at least a moderate impact snowfall across northern Maine.
Based on the 12z GFS ensemble, all but 1 of the 30 members have
at least 4 inches of snow in Caribou, and nearly 70 percent have
warning criteria of 7 inches. The 12z European ensemble was
unavailable at the time of writing, but has trended up steadily
over the past few cycles. The last minute phasing favors heavier
snow amounts across northeastern portions of the area, where a
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for northern Penobscot County
and all of Aroostook County. The watch includes northwestern
Aroostook County mainly for the eastern portions of the zone
where most of the zones population resides. If phasing occurs
even slightly sooner, a stronger low would result in snow
amounts well above warning criteria over portions of the watch
area and require an expansion of the watch. Likewise, if phasing
occurs even slightly slower snow amounts may be below warning
criteria. At this time some 0z guidance and the Canadian was
blended in to soften the sharp trend upwards and not go all in
with very heavy snow amounts as shown on the GFS/European
models. The 25th percentile of snow ratios was also preferred
given the potential for stronger winds lowering ratios in the
case of a strong system. However, locally higher snow ratios are
possible in any heavier snow bands across the far north
wherever, depending on the low track, the strongest band of 700h
frontogenesis lines up with the dendritic growth zone. The
heaviest precipitation will occur Wednesday afternoon and into
the evening. Mainly rain is expected along the coast. Depending
on the low track, significant mixed precipitation or a
transition to rain could occur across Interior Downeast,
including the Bangor area, so lower amounts are forecast over
these areas.
Precipitation will taper to flurries and end Wednesday night. As
high pressure builds in, expect winds to increase, particularly
by morning with weak surface heating beginning. Patchy blowing
snow is expected across areas that receive all snow during the
day Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures will be cold with highs in
the upper teens to low 20s and wind chills near or below zero.
&&.....
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
817 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021
MEZ001-002-005-006-211200-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0007.211222T1400Z-211223T0500Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Penobscot-
Southeast Aroostook-
Including the cities of Mars Hill, Sherman, Houlton, Fort Kent,
Frenchville, East Millinocket, Millinocket, Clayton Lake, Van
Buren, Madawaska, Presque Isle, Smyrna Mills, Medway, Ashland,
Patten, Hodgdon, Caribou, and Allagash
817 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than
7 inches possible.
* WHERE...Northern Penobscot, Southeast Aroostook, Northeast
Aroostook and Northwest Aroostook Counties.
* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Wednesday evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,
sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.
&&
$$
Nouhan
posted by Advackia at 8:38 PM
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