Subtropical Storm Melissa Update Two

000
WTNT44 KNHC 120234
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

Although Melissa's convection hasn't been very deep for much of the
day, there has been a slight cooling of cloud tops during the past
few hours.  This could possibly be due to the system's center now
moving over the core of the Gulf Stream current, where water
temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius.  There has also been
sporadic lightning strikes observed within the convection to the
north of the center.  Despite this, the latest Hebert-Poteat
subtropical classification from TAFB is ST2.5/35 kt, and a UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate from a few hours ago was 44 kt.  Based on these
data, Melissa's winds are lowered to 45 kt.

Melissa is moving a little faster and now toward the southeast, or
125/6 kt.  Although Melissa and its parent upper-level low are cut
off from the mid-latitude westerlies, a ridge currently located over
the Appalachian Mountains is expected to flatten on Saturday,
causing westerly flow to become established and force Melissa out
to sea.  The cyclone is forecast to accelerate eastward starting on
Saturday and continuing into early next week.  No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast on this cycle.

Melissa's journey across the warm Gulf Stream waters will be short
lived, only lasting for about 12 hours, and upper-level westerly
winds will be increasing over the system significantly on Saturday.
Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, with the NHC intensity
forecast more or less mirroring the guidance provided by the GFS
and ECMWF global models.  Melissa is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner.  The remnant low is likely
to be absorbed within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic by day
4.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend from the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia
eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since
they are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the
U.S. east coast overnight and on Saturday, resulting in a gradual
decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England
coasts on Saturday around times of high tide.  For more information,
see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast
offices at weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 37.7N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 37.8N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 38.1N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 38.5N  62.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0000Z 39.0N  58.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z 40.4N  50.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
Forecaster Berg

Subtropical Storm Melissa Update One

4:25 PM ADT Friday 11 October 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:

Guysborough County
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Lunenburg County
Queens County
Richmond County
Shelburne County
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
For Sub-tropical Storm Melissa.

A low pressure system well south of Cape Cod has evolved into Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa. This storm is forecast to track south of the Maritime marine district tonight, Saturday and Sunday. Gale to storm force easterly winds are forecast for the offshore marine areas south of Nova Scotia.

Melissa will not affect land areas of Nova Scotia except for large waves and heavy pounding surf at the coast. Melissa is expected to weaken as it tracks eastward well south of Nova Scotia.

Another area of low pressure forming north of Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa will give rainfall to the Maritimes tonight and Saturday. Over areas of southern Nova Scotia, 25 to 45 millimetres are forecast. A special weather statement was issued last night for the potential for significant rainfall associated with this low.

This will be the only statement on Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa.

Forecaster: Hatt

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Subtropical Storm Melissa forms near Southern New England, could impact the Region

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Caribou ME
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

MEZ029-030-120900-
/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-191013T0000Z/
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport,
Castine, Eastport, Machias, and Cherryfield
253 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* SURF HEIGHT...5 to 8 feet.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will make
  for hazardous surf conditions. Minor wash up is possible on low
  lying roadways near waters edge within plus or minus one hour of
  high tide.

* RIP CURRENTS...Are powerful channels of water flowing quickly
  away from shore. Heed the advice of lifeguards. Pay attention
  to flags and posted signs.

* HIGH SURF...Large waves can present a danger to people on
  rocks above the water. Stay away from rock outcrops along the
  shoreline exposed to ocean waves...as waves can easily sweep
  people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In
The Advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach
erosion.

&&
$$

VJN

3:49 PM ADT Friday 11 October 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Rain and strong winds beginning this evening and continuing into Saturday...

Rain will spread eastward tonight to reach Cape Breton by Saturday morning. Total rainfall amounts of 20 to 40 mm are expected for much of Nova Scotia by Saturday evening, with some areas along the Atlantic coast possibly reaching or exceeding 50 mm.

Along with the rain, strong easterly winds gusting to 80 km/h along the coast in the southwest will spread into eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning. Rough and pounding surf will also impact parts of the Atlantic coast tonight then diminish by Saturday evening.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 111452
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2019

Convection increased near the center of the nor'easter centered
southeast of New England overnight. First-light visible satellite
imagery briefly showed an eye-like feature before the convection
around the immediate center began to weaken. However, a large
convective band still persists over the northern semicircle, and
this structure indicated the system has transitioned to a
subtropical cyclone. The latest Hebert-Poteat classification from
TAFB indicates an initial intensity of 55 kt, and this is also
supported by an earlier scatterometer overpass showing a large area
of winds near 50 kt in the northwest quadrant.

Melissa is currently located underneath an upper-level trough,
resulting in a light shear environment. This trough will begin to
lift northeastward later today, and strong upper-level westerlies
should begin to affect the storm by tonight. This pattern is
expected to cause a weakening trend, and Melissa is forecast to
become post-tropical by Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is
then expected to be absorbed by an approaching front in 3 to 4 days.

Melissa is currently embedded in weak steering flow under the upper-
level trough, and little net motion is expected today. Later
tonight, an approaching mid-latitude trough currently crossing
the upper Midwest will begin to force an east-northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed. This motion will continue until
the cyclone is absorbed by the cold front. The NHC track forecast is
closest to the ECMWF ensemble mean.

Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue be
covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service
forecast offices.

Gale-force winds that extend well northeastward of Melissa into the
central Atlantic that are not included in the wind radii, since they
are associated with a frontal boundary.

Key Messages:

1. While the nor'easter centered southeast of New England has become
Subtropical Storm Melissa, the expected magnitude of wind and
coastal flooding impacts along portions of the U.S. east coast from
the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England has not changed.
For information on these hazards, see products issued by local
National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov.

2. Melissa is expected to gradually weaken and begin moving away
from the U.S. east coast by tonight, resulting in a gradual decrease
in wind and coastal flooding impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 38.5N  69.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 38.2N  69.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 38.4N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 39.0N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  13/1200Z 39.9N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/1200Z 41.3N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  15/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto