Potential Major Winter Storm On The Way? Update One
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FXUS61 KCAR 251443
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
943 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A small area of low pressure will track across the region today.
High pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday and crest
over the area early Thursday. Low pressure will develop off the
southeast coast on Friday and intensify as it tracks north toward
our region on Saturday.....
.....LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our focus Friday into the start of the weekend will be on a
significant and potentially major winter storm heading our way. The
cold front over our region on Friday will slowly press across the
area stalling just off the coast at the end of the day. Meanwhile, a
southern branch shortwave will be crossing the Gulf coast states on
Friday initiating cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast. This will
occur at the same time a vigorous mid latitude shortwave cascading
over a highly amplified full latitude ridge-to-trough longwave dives
southeast through the upper Midwest. The northern branch wave will
cross the Appalachians and engage the southern branch wave
Friday night leading to rapid cyclogenesis, potentially
"bombogenesis", off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The intensifying low
center is destined to track from there up toward the Gulf of
Maine on Saturday spreading heavy snow and wind across our area.
Here`s a look at the current model projections for this storm:
The GFS carries the low from a position off the Mid Atlantic
coast Saturday morning to a little over a hundred miles east of
Cape Cod early Saturday afternoon then on across the Gulf of
Maine toward the mouth of the Bay of Fundy Saturday evening.
This favors all snow across the area except maybe some rain
mixing in along coastal Washington County. The ECMWF is a bit
slower and initially further west with its track taking the low
center near Cape Cod early Saturday evening, then from there
tracking the low northeast into the mouth of the Bay of Fundy
by early Sunday morning. The new Canadian model is a little
further east and slower carrying the low center across western
Nova Scotia Sunday morning. All three of these operational
models favor heavy snow over our area but the Canadian may
confine the heaviest snow to central and eastern parts of our
region. The NBM mean track takes the low over eastern Washington
County bringing heavy snow to all areas with a possible change
to rain over southern Washington County. Snow and blowing snow
should taper off Sunday morning as the low center begins to
occlude and lift away through the northern Maritimes. Weak high
pressure will follow bringing light winds and a chilly day on
Monday......
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
337 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022
MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-260845-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Southern Piscataquis-
337 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot
Valley Maine.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A high impact winter storm may affect the region this weekend
potentially bringing significant snowfall and windy conditions to
northern and Downeast Maine.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
$$
posted by Advackia at 9:00 AM
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